According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Saturday, in December 2021, the sales price of second-hand houses in the four first tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month from a decrease of 0.2% last month, which is the first time that the month on month increase has been positive since September last year.
Analysts said that after the regulators released the signal of stabilizing the property market, the credit supply increased, the market began to warm up, and the property market is expected to gradually return to normal in the first half of 2022.
According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, in December, second-hand house prices in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.8% and 0.4% month on month respectively, while those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively; Second hand house prices in second tier cities fell by 0.3% month on month, 0.1 percentage points lower than last month; Second hand house prices in third tier cities decreased by 0.5% month on month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out that compared with small and medium-sized cities, there is a large potential demand for house purchase in large cities. Once the policy is exhausted, the market is easier to rebound, while small cities need a longer time to recover.
Centaline data show that in December, 18000 second-hand houses were sold in Shanghai, an increase of 19.3% month on month; The average transaction price was 38499 yuan / m2, an increase of 3.4% over the previous month. According to Zhuge's house search data, in December, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was 15321 units, up 30.8% month on month, and the average market price was 56122 yuan / m2, up 0.9% month on month.
In 2021, the real estate market experienced a transition from high fever in the first half of the year to deep adjustment in the second half of the year. Under the unprecedented policy regulation, real estate investment and sales declined significantly in the second half of the year. Evergrande, jiazhaoye and other real estate enterprises fell into a liquidity crisis, and the industry was facing a reshuffle.
\u3000\u3000 "The biggest change factor in the real estate market in 2021 is the supply of credit policies. The relatively high supply in the first quarter affected the high operation of house prices in the first half of the year. The overall tightening of credit supply in the second and third quarters led to a significant decline in the market. In the fourth quarter, the credit supply increased significantly compared with the second and third quarters. The backlog of housing loans in most cities was significantly alleviated and the market stabilized. ”Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, last year, the real estate regulation and control policy was as high as 651 times, a record high, and the average regulation and control times per month was as high as 54 times. Analysts said that under the influence of regulatory policies, the biggest feature of house prices in 2021 is that they are generally flat and volatile.
"After a year, house prices rise first and then fall, and finally return to the starting point." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the shell Research Institute, said.
He pointed out that in the first half of last year, house prices rose in a wide range and relatively large increase. For example, in March 70, the city's new house and second-hand house prices rose month on month in 62 and 58 cities respectively, accounting for more than 80%, and some cities had the highest monthly year-on-year increase of more than 10%. In the second half of the year, after the tightening of the credit environment, house prices fell, and the range of cities that fell month on month continued to expand. By December, the average year-on-year increase of second-hand house prices in 70 cities was less than 1%, and the average year-on-year increase of new house prices narrowed to less than 2%, that is, the price at the end of the year was basically the same as that at the beginning of the year.
Since September, regulators have continuously released signals to stabilize the property market. For example, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission require commercial banks to reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, focusing on meeting the needs of first suite and improved housing mortgage. In December, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference stressed the promotion of a "virtuous cycle" of the real estate industry. At the local level, policies such as house purchase subsidies, reducing the threshold for talent house purchase and relaxing the requirements for provident fund loans have followed.
For example, for those who purchase commercial houses, non residential houses (including commercial and facade) and parking houses of participating enterprises during the winter housing fair from December 10, 2021 to January 25, 2022 and sign online successfully (only for the first time), Chongqing will implement a deed tax reduction subsidy of half.
Wuhu, Anhui Province issued the detailed rules for the implementation of Wuhu young talents' house purchase subsidy. Doctors without their own houses, masters under the age of 35, and graduates of full-time undergraduate and junior colleges (including secondary vocational and technical colleges) within three years of graduation can enjoy the house purchase subsidy, with the maximum amount of subsidy reaching 10% of the house purchase price.
Huizhou, Guangdong, puts forward supportive terms for talent introduction from the perspective of provident fund. In terms of provident fund loan amount, the loan amount is not limited by the deposit balance, so as to effectively reduce the house purchase cost.
Looking forward to the real estate market in 2022, analysts believe that "stability" will be the biggest feature.
Xu Xiaole said that under the policy guidance of "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies" put forward by the central government, the credit environment will be more friendly, so as to promote the improvement of market transactions and gradually stop the decline and stabilize house prices.
Zhang Dawei also said that with the gradual easing of mortgage, the biggest factor affecting the real estate market, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter of 2022, and the first and second tier cities will take the lead in getting out of the downturn.
