The demand for steel will be gradually released in the future

On April 26, China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a quarterly information conference in Beijing. Qu Xiuli, vice president and Secretary General of the Steel Association, said that in the first quarter, affected by factors such as the tightening situation of epidemic prevention and control in some regions and the rapid rise of commodity prices, iron and steel enterprises were faced with difficulties such as blocked logistics and transportation and sharp rise in costs. Stricter environmental control and arduous carbon reduction tasks also brought new challenges to their production and operation.

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the increasingly complex and severe international environment and multiple tests brought by frequent outbreaks in China, the iron and steel industry has earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the principle of stability and seeking progress in stability, actively adapted to market changes, paid close attention to the three major events of economic work, epidemic prevention and control and production safety. The operation of the industry is generally stable and achieved a good start in the first quarter.

“Affected by the superposition of multiple factors such as staggered peak production in the heating season, multi-point spread of the epidemic, limited circulation of personnel and materials, the market demand is relatively weak, and the steel production is at a low level.” Qu Xiuli said that according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter, China’s pig iron output was 201 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; The steel output was 243 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%; Steel output was 312 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From the perspective of daily output level, in the first quarter, China’s average daily output of steel was 2.742 million tons, although it decreased significantly year-on-year, but it was higher than the average daily output of 2.4731 million tons in the fourth quarter of last year.

According to the China Steel Industry Association, the average price of steel rose by 135.4 points in the first quarter, up from the same period last year. Among them, the long timber index was 141.45 points, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%; The sector index was 133.45 points, a year-on-year increase of 2.50%, 3.44 percentage points lower than that of long wood. At the end of March, China’s steel price index was 138.85 points, up 2.14% month on month and 1.89% year-on-year.

Steel demand starts slowly. Since March, the epidemic situation in China has shown a trend of local aggregation and multi-point distribution, and the demand for downstream steel has started slowly. According to the calculation of the Steel Association, in the first quarter, the actual steel consumption in the main steel industry decreased by 5% year-on-year, including 7% in the construction industry and 2% in the manufacturing industry. Over the same period, China’s apparent steel consumption was about 235 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.

Enterprise cost pressure increases. At present, the international bulk commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the prices of raw and fuel materials such as iron ore, coking coal, coke and scrap steel for iron and steel production rise rapidly and remain at a high level. According to the monitoring of CISA, at the end of March, the imported ore price of China iron ore price index (ciopi) was US $158.39/ton, an increase of 33.2% over the beginning of the year. In the first quarter, the average market prices of coking coal, metallurgical coke and scrap steel were 2813 yuan / ton, 3167 yuan / ton and 3665 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75.1%, 27.0% and 13.5% respectively. Superimposed on the impact of stricter epidemic prevention and control on personnel flow and logistics transportation, the cost of iron and steel enterprises continues to rise, making it more difficult to improve economic benefits.

Difficulties in production, supply and marketing organizations have increased. Affected by the epidemic, the control of expressways has been strengthened, the policy standards are not unified, the automobile transportation capacity has decreased seriously, some logistics nodes such as ports, docks and warehouses have encountered problems such as limited operation and insufficient personnel, and the land transportation capacity, warehouse receiving and inspection capacity and port dredging capacity have decreased significantly, resulting in poor transportation of raw materials, energy and other production materials, poor export and shipment of products, and enterprises are facing difficulties in entering the factory Difficulties in production organization and contract execution.

This year, China has done a good job in epidemic prevention and control strictly and practically, earnestly implemented the tasks of “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”, timely issued a series of policies to help enterprises rescue and promote steady economic growth, continued to restore the development trend of the national economy, and improved the quality and efficiency of development, providing a better external environment for the development of the iron and steel industry. At the same time, the international situation is complex and changeable, unstable and uncertain factors are increasing, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and covid-19 pneumonia on the global industrial chain supply chain is obvious, and the development of the iron and steel industry is facing more difficulties and challenges.

In order to get through the blocking points and make every effort to ensure the smooth flow of logistics, the State Council recently issued the notice on effectively ensuring the smooth flow of freight logistics, and deployed to do a good job in the relevant work of ensuring the smooth flow of freight logistics. All ministries and commissions and local governments are implementing and cooperating with each other, and positive results have been achieved in ensuring the smooth flow of logistics, the circulation stability of industrial chain supply chain and the stability of supply and price. In the later stage, under the goal of stable growth of the country, with the mitigation of the epidemic situation and the force of multiple policies, the demand for steel will be gradually released.

In the next stage, the iron and steel industry will continue to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, fully implement the work arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, comprehensively grasp the epidemic prevention and control, actively adapt to market changes, continue to focus on one fundamental task, two development themes, three industry pain points and an important process, and fully fulfill the mission of ensuring supply and realize the self-development of the iron and steel industry Actively promote the three key tasks of related industries to achieve common prosperity, and strive to promote the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry to make new progress. Qu Xiuli said that first, strive to do a good job in the stable operation of the industry. Under the guidance of national ministries and commissions, we will conscientiously implement the series of decisions and arrangements of “double control” of production capacity and output, and actively take effective measures to ensure the realization of the goal of “year-on-year decline in crude steel output in the whole year”. In accordance with the requirements of “stabilizing production, ensuring supply, controlling costs, preventing risks, improving quality and stabilizing benefits”, closely track the changes in markets outside China, continue to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of economic operation, take the balance of supply and demand as the goal, strengthen industry self-discipline, maintain the elasticity of supply, and strive to promote the stable operation of the whole industry on the basis of ensuring supply and stable price.

Second, promote the stable and sustainable development of the industrial chain. While paying close attention to epidemic prevention and control, we will try our best to coordinate forces from all aspects and promote smooth logistics. From the strategic perspective of stable and sustainable development of the industrial chain, we will promote the implementation of the “cornerstone plan” for resource guarantee, promote the orderly development of China’s new iron ore resources, overseas new equity iron ore, scrap resource recycling and other work, and improve the resource guarantee capacity of the iron and steel industry. Pay attention to the needs of downstream users, actively optimize product structure, improve product performance, improve service quality, and provide strong support for the transformation and upgrading of downstream industries.

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