Key investment points:
Event: in the past 120 trading days, the CITIC electronics index callback was about 32%, counting down in the whole market. The TTM valuation of the industry is only 25 times and that of some leading companies is only more than 10 times, which has become the lowest level of the industry’s historical valuation since 2015. Optimistic about the current strategic layout opportunities of the electronic sector, it is recommended to focus on the boom track.
Semiconductor equipment: global semiconductor equipment has not improved this year since the tight delivery last year. ASML said in the latest quarterly communication that the production speed is difficult to catch up with the order scale, and it is expected that the backlog of orders will not be digested until 2024. Benefiting from China’s strong investment in wafer production capacity, the price of second-hand equipment has also soared recently Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) q1’s median revenue is expected to be + 50% year-on-year, while Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) q1’s revenue is expected to be + 124% year-on-year, indicating that the operation of the equipment company continues to be prosperous. Under the guidance of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the operation and logistics of the equipment company are gradually normalized. With the construction of new Fabs such as SMIC, Huahong, Changcun and Changxin, it is expected to bring a new round of equipment delivery cycle, and the parts upstream of the equipment will also benefit synchronously. It is recommended to pay attention to equipment platform companies Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , subdivide leading companies Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) and equipment parts: Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) and so on.
Power devices: from the Q1 financial report, the boom continued to exceed expectations, including Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) revenue + 5% and China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) revenue + 8% month on month. Overseas manufacturers such as Infineon issued price increase letters in Q1 and are expected to raise prices this year, reflecting the continuous tension of overseas supply. We follow up and understand that the overseas new supply is limited this year. In addition to the climbing of Infineon production line, the new supply of other power production lines is less. This continues to bring good opportunities for domestic power semiconductors. Benefiting from the demand of new energy, the supply of vehicle gauge IGBT, photovoltaic IGBT single tube and module is still in short supply in the near future, and domestic companies have begun to import downstream major customers, which is expected to usher in the opportunity of volume increase this year! It is recommended to pay attention to Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , etc.
Semiconductor materials: the climbing of China’s new wafer production line drives the strong demand for semiconductor materials. First of all, overseas silicon chip leaders such as sumco and global wafer orders are scheduled to 20242026 respectively. There is no need to worry about the prosperity of demand!
Secondly, under the tight supply, the introduction of Chinese materials is accelerating. Chinese wafer factories also actively cooperate with the verification of domestic silicon wafers. On light doped silicon wafers, Shanghai silicon and Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) are climbing, and the breakeven turning point of domestic 12 inch light doped silicon this year can be expected! In addition to silicon wafers, Dinglong will also usher in a harvest period in the layout of semiconductor materials, and the amount of polishing pads and polishing fluids will continue this year. It is recommended to pay attention to National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , etc.
Consumer electronics + automotive electronics: according to the Shenwan industry index, the valuation of the consumer electronics sector has reached the level at the end of 18 years. The guidance of Goertek Inc(002241) China Daily exceeded expectations, dispelling the most pessimistic expectations of the market for consumer electronics. VR AR is still the key direction of innovation in the future. The valuation of leading companies is less than 20 times this year, adding to the recent stock price correction, which is of great significance for strategic layout. In addition, it is once again recommended that the long-term layout of automotive electronics Changpo thick snow track. The matrix of automotive electronic products is rich, and there are abundant investment opportunities in related industrial chains. It is suggested to focus on the fields of lidar, connector and vehicle PCB, and the related subject matter of torch technology, Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) , Olympic Circuit Technology Co.Ltd(603920) , etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected, R & D progress is less than expected, and supply chain recovery is less than expected.
