Recently, the steady growth policy has made concerted efforts to release positive signals of stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence.
From the meeting held by the central financial and Economic Committee to lay out the infrastructure conducive to leading industrial development and safeguarding national security; When the logistics industry chain and supply chain are restored, listed companies in key industries will resume work and production; Then to the positive progress in vaccine and drug R & D, epidemic prevention and control, the deepening reform of the capital market, and the concerted efforts of all parties concerned to promote the stable and healthy operation of the capital market.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist and managing director Wang Hanfeng said that with the accumulation of a series of positive factors, the investment value of A-share market is prominent, the overall market valuation has been reduced to the level similar to the historical bottom, the cumulative correction time of the market is long and the range is large, the estimated value is relatively low, the market is in the “bottom grinding period” in the short term, and the middle line has value.
positive factor I: the steady growth policy has been strengthened
On April 26, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission was held to study the issue of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction. The meeting pointed out that we should be moderately ahead of schedule. The layout is conducive to the infrastructure leading industrial development and safeguarding national security. At the same time, we should grasp the degree of ahead of schedule construction. The meeting also pointed out five key layout points, including the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy; Upgrading of information, science and technology, logistics and other industries and infrastructure construction; Urban infrastructure construction; Agricultural and rural infrastructure construction; National security infrastructure construction.
“With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the meeting once again stressed that strengthening infrastructure construction has multiple meanings, such as stabilizing growth, improving infrastructure level, building a unified national market and safeguarding national security.” Feng qiaobin, Vice Minister of the macroeconomic Department of the development research center of the State Council, said.
Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the meeting was a “top-level design” for China’s infrastructure construction, and made a comprehensive deployment for the planning, layout and support of infrastructure construction at present and in the future from a strategic perspective.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) analysis shows that new infrastructure projects, transportation, energy, water network, new urbanization and other fields are the focus of investment, as well as a major opportunity to improve the quality and efficiency of new generation infrastructure investment. According to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , the overall investment scale of new infrastructure during the 14th Five Year Plan period is about 27 trillion. The new infrastructure enables the old infrastructure, and the new situation of integrated development of new and old infrastructure will be further opened.
positive factor 2: gradual recovery of logistics industry chain and supply chain
At the same time, the problem of logistics industry chain, which previously plagued the market, has been alleviated. The national teleconference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of industrial chain and supply chain was held on April 18. Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the meeting and deployed ten important measures. The meeting called for adhering to the people as the center and having the overall situation in mind. We should be concerned about the lives and physical and mental health of the masses and epidemic prevention personnel, improve the working and living conditions of logistics practitioners, and provide financial support such as deferred repayment of loans. A sufficient number of national unified passes shall be issued and used. The nucleic acid test results shall be mutually recognized throughout the country within 48 hours. The closed-loop management of “picking, leaving and chasing” shall be implemented. The passage shall not be restricted on the grounds of waiting for the nucleic acid results. We should tackle key problems one by one and solve outstanding problems in key areas. We should strive to stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain, leverage 1 trillion yuan of funds through 200 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation refinancing and 100 billion yuan of refinancing used in the field of transportation and logistics, and establish a white list of key industries and foreign trade enterprises such as automobiles, integrated circuits, consumer electronics, equipment manufacturing, agricultural materials, food and medicine.
Recently, several central ministries and commissions have increased their support for smooth logistics and stable industrial chain supply chain. For example, the people’s Bank of China will use a variety of monetary policy tools such as refinancing and rediscount to support and guide financial institutions to increase financial support, open up a “green channel” for transportation logistics enterprises and freight drivers, and reasonably arrange loan extension and renewal; The Ministry of industry and information technology takes multiple measures to ensure the stable production of key enterprises and the smooth operation of key industrial chains. Mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties and work together to implement the policy of ensuring the smooth flow of freight logistics; The Ministry of communications goes all out to ensure smooth logistics, ensure the orderly operation of logistics, and provide a solid guarantee for economic and social development and the production and life of the people.
According to the Research Report of Anxin securities, the policy level attaches great importance to logistics guarantee and supply, and various parties actively express their positions and promote logistics recovery, which reflects that the macro policy synergy of stable growth and stable expectation is increasing. After experiencing the severe test of this round of epidemic, the national and Shanghai prevention and control policies have been gradually refined and rationalized, and more attention has been paid to the importance of logistics stability. The e-commerce platform will resume operation, the logistics nodes and employees will be opened and reworked one after another, the problem of truck traffic will also be alleviated, and the overall judgment of express logistics will usher in a turning point of recovery; The improvement of policies and the security service guarantee ability of the logistics industry have also been effectively strengthened. Even if the epidemic situation repeats in the future, it will not change the development toughness.
With the recovery of logistics industry chain and supply chain, listed companies in key industries are also actively returning to work and production. In particular, listed companies in Shanghai have resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the automobile industry is a “leader”. On April 18, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) opened the pressure test for resumption of work and production in the passenger car base near Hong Kong. On April 19, the first vehicle after the pressure test was opened was offline. At present, many brands of complete vehicles have been offline continuously to meet the needs of China and export orders Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Quzhou base produces products mainly used in 3C digital products and new energy vehicles, and most of the main products are exported overseas.
In addition to automobile manufacturing enterprises, the resumption of work and production of enterprises in social security industries such as electrical equipment, maternal and infant supplies and people’s livelihood drugs is also actively under way.
III. positive factors for epidemic prevention and control
It is worth noting that Sinopharm China biology and Kexing holding Biotechnology Co., Ltd. obtained the clinical approval of the State Food and Drug Administration for the inactivated vaccine of Omicron mutant covid-19 virus at the same time, and new progress has been made in epidemic prevention and control.
The number of newly infected cases in the disaster area in Shanghai has decreased for 22 consecutive days since April. In the face of an increase in confirmed cases, Beijing responded quickly. On the basis of strict prevention and strict adherence, Beijing took more stringent measures to isolate infected and close contacts immediately, close relevant places and communities immediately, and quickly catch up with nucleic acid screening. The seal should be sealed, the investigation should be conducted, the preparation should be made, the epidemic information released should be accurate and in place, and the ideas of prevention and control measures should be clear.
positive factor 4: frequent market stabilizing policies and stable confidence of all parties in the market
In order to stabilize the market, the securities regulatory authorities act frequently.
On April 26, the CSRC issued the opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of the public fund industry, guiding investors to pay attention to long-term investment performance, value investment and rational investment, and improving the proportion of medium and long-term funds. Prior to this, the CSRC held a symposium for institutional investors, which analyzed the current economic and financial situation at home and abroad, listened to opinions and suggestions on promoting the high-quality development of the capital market and guiding more medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and guided institutions to increase the proportion of equity investment.
Giving full play to the advantages of long-term funds can overcome short-term market fluctuations, make good use of the amount of equity investment, further expand the proportion of equity investment and improve the level of long-term income.
Not only the CSRC, but also the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to study and judge the current economic and financial situation and study and deploy the key work in the next stage. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio from the current 9% to 8%, so as to stabilize the exchange rate.
All parties involved in the market are actively maintaining the stability of the market. Wind data shows that as of April 26, 448 listed companies have announced the completion of repurchase or released repurchase plans during the year. Among them, more than 50 listed companies have issued repurchase announcements since April. From the perspective of repurchase purpose, most companies say that repurchase is to maintain the share price of the secondary market and be optimistic about the long-term development of the company.
At the same time, important shareholders of fund companies and listed companies also joined the ranks of self purchase. According to wind data, as of April 25, 63 fund companies had self purchased during the year, a total of 114 times, with a total amount of 1.884 billion yuan. 205 listed companies disclosed plans for shareholders to increase their holdings, including 185 controlling shareholders, actual controllers or senior executives, with a cumulative lower limit of 6.323 billion yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief economist Mingming believes that the increase of repurchase and shareholding increase cases of listed companies is mainly due to two reasons: first, the share price of some companies has fallen into the value range, which is the appropriate time point for long-term allocation of funds to enter the market, so the scale of industrial capital shareholding increase began to expand; Second, the repurchase of listed companies helps to protect market confidence and protect the rights and interests of stock investors.
The toughness of listed companies is better. As of April 27, 2022, according to wind data, 3528 of the 4799 listed companies in the north of Shanghai and Shenzhen have issued annual reports, accounting for 73.52% of the total number of listed companies. The total revenue of 3528 listed companies increased steadily, and the overall performance was good. The total operating revenue was 57.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.82%; The total net profit was 4.94 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%. By industry, the annual profit growth rate of leisure services, transportation, mining, non-ferrous metals and other industries is high. From the change of growth rate, the profit growth rate of leisure services, transportation, mining and chemical industries is significantly higher than that of the previous year. Among the 3528 listed companies that have published their annual reports, 2760 have dividend plans, accounting for 78.23%. Large dividends are mostly “white horse” companies with higher total market value, total revenue and net profit, which is also an important reason why such companies are more likely to be favored by institutional investors.
“The aggregation of a series of positive factors highlights the investment value of the A-share market.” China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist and managing director Wang Hanfeng said that the sentiment index “grinding bottom” and “steady growth” have relative returns, and the market has a midline value. When “steady growth” encounters “supply shock”, the overall market valuation has been reduced to a level similar to the historical bottom. The cumulative correction time of the market is long and the range is large, the valuation is relatively low, and the market is in a “grinding bottom period” in the short term, The midline already has value.
“From the perspective of medium-term and medium-term demand, China has more room for policy flexibility, but from the perspective of medium-term demand, it is easier to be driven by medium-term demand, although it is relatively uncertain in the medium-term.” Wang Hanfeng said.
