Bank Of China Limited(601988) Chairman Liu Liange said at the "Global Wealth Management Forum · Shanghai suhewan summit" on January 15 that the world's unprecedented loose policies have improved global liquidity and promoted the economy to recover from the impact of the epidemic. However, the global economic recovery driven by liquidity is more superficial prosperity, and the competitiveness of the real economy and enterprise productivity have not been substantially improved. The resurgence of differentiation, rising prices, rising debt, financial asset price bubbles and cross-border capital disorder will result in a hidden danger for future economic growth.
First, the "K-shaped" recovery of the global economy, with serious differentiation among different economies and groups; Second, global demand picked up rapidly and inflation rose in an all-round way; Third, global economic development is more dependent on debt financing, and the debt ratio of the government and private sector is rising; Fourth, the false prosperity of the global financial market has increased its deviation from the real economy; Fifth, large-scale cross-border capital flows have significantly enhanced market linkage.
Liu Liange said that global liquidity will face an inflection point in 2022. The Federal Reserve will accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. The market is expected to start raising interest rates as soon as March, and the time point of shrinking the table will also be advanced. The European Central Bank announced that it would end the emergency anti epidemic bond purchase plan in March 2022. Developed economies such as Britain, Norway and New Zealand and some emerging economies have entered the interest rate hike cycle ahead of schedule. In 2022, the growth rate of global liquidity will slow down or even decline, and the global interest rate center will rise.
"For financial institutions, opportunities and challenges coexist in this change." According to Liu Liange's analysis, from the positive aspects, first, the rise of interest rate level will improve the net interest margin of financial institutions and help to improve the profitability of financial institutions; Second, the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy will boost the appreciation of the US dollar, the return on US dollar assets will increase, and global financial institutions can improve their asset quality and profitability through asset liability structure adjustment; Third, the tightening of liquidity helps to stabilize the rising trend of global commodity prices and alleviate the problem of high inflation in developed economies from the money supply side.
On the negative side, first, financial market fluctuations will become the main risk point, asset prices in the stock market and bond market may be significantly corrected, the debt risk of enterprises and residents will increase, the risk of default will increase, and the credit risk and liquidity risk of financial institutions may increase; Second, the environmental changes in the financial field will gradually spread to the real field. The tightening of liquidity will reduce the risk preference of financial institutions, which may bring new financing constraints to the real economic sectors that have not recovered, and the default probability of corporate credit and bonds will increase, which will pose a certain challenge to the asset quality of financial institutions; Third, from past experience, the impact of the tightening of the global monetary environment on emerging economies is much greater than that of developed economies. At present, some emerging economies have exposed obvious exchange rate fluctuations and sovereign debt risks. Changes in global liquidity in 2022 may trigger a new round of financial turmoil.
"Financial institutions need to pay close attention to these risk changes and have pre judgment plans." Liu Liange believes that special attention should be paid to the following matters: first, pay attention to the total amount of global liquidity and structural changes, guide the flow of funds to the real economy, increase support for sustainable development, green assets, digital economy and other fields, and help transform and upgrade the economic structure; Second, pay attention to the impact of global liquidity changes on the polarization between the rich and the poor and income inequality, increase support for Inclusive Finance, small and micro enterprises and poor individuals, promote the realization of the strategic objectives of the UN 2030 agenda for sustainable development, promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, narrow the gap between the rich and the poor and promote global common prosperity; Third, central banks of all countries should strengthen the communication and coordination of monetary policies, reduce the spillover impact and unexpected impact on the global financial market, and create a more benign and stable development environment for the global economy and finance.
