Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Capital Securities: high price operation. It is expected that coal enterprises will have a bright performance in the second quarter
Affected by the overseas energy situation, it is expected that the upside down of imported coal prices will continue, and coal imports will maintain a downward trend. On the whole, the supply and demand of coal consumption will tend to be in tight balance in the off-season. After entering the summer at the end of the second quarter, with the rebound of demand, it is expected that the overall supply and demand pattern will remain tense. Especially with the effective control of the epidemic situation, the “steady growth” will drive demand, the downstream industrial power consumption will increase, and the demand for coal for thermal power will recover, Coal consumption is expected to maintain a high growth rate. On the whole, the price of thermal coal is expected to gradually stabilize in this quarter, and the high price operation is expected to have a bright performance in the second quarter.
The tight supply and demand situation of coking coal remains, and the supply contraction is greater than the pressure of demand. In terms of coking coal, the market supply and demand has always been tight. The import volume of Outer Mongolia has increased recently, but it is still at a low level. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of coking coal and coke is limited, the operating rate has decreased, the output has decreased, the raw material inventory of downstream steel mills is mostly at a very low level, and the demand for replenishment is strong. At present, the price of main steel continues to rise slightly, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has not decreased, and the double coke market is in a tense situation, In the short term, the double coke market is still stable, medium and strong. Affected by the overseas situation and the epidemic situation, it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of coking coal will not be significantly improved in the short term. It is expected that the coking sector will continue to maintain a high boom and is still optimistic about the substantial growth of the annual performance of coking coal.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : optimistic about the upward movement of the performance center of the coal sector + the opportunity to improve the valuation! Three main lines recommended
The follow-up steady growth policy has been gradually strengthened, the demand toughness has been enhanced, the logic of high coal price center remains unchanged, and we continue to be optimistic about the upward movement of sector performance center + valuation improvement opportunities. Three main lines are recommended: (1) stable performance and high dividend Baima, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ; (2) Opportunities for coking coal sector driven by the expected improvement of demand, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) ; (3) Continue to be optimistic about the transformation of coal enterprises, Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , power investment and energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , and pay attention to the opportunities of coal machinery and other equipment enterprises brought by the change of fixed asset investment in the industry, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) .
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector has triple support
We believe that at this stage, the spot price of coking coal and the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector have triple support: 1) demand is expected to continue to recover under the background of “steady growth” and “moderately advanced infrastructure investment”; 2) Australian coal imports are short-term or difficult to liberalize, the import volume of Outer Mongolia is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the current situation of overseas imports is weak or difficult to improve; 3) The coal mine safety supervision action in the main coking coal producing areas is still ongoing, and it may be difficult for China’s coking coal supply to increase in the short term. Under the triple support, the high performance of key listed companies in the sector is expected to continue, corresponding to the current valuation may still be underestimated. We recommend continuing to pay attention to the core targets of coking coal: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) and Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) .
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: coal consumption has entered the peak season of “peak summer”. It is recommended to operate stably with high dividend and high dividend target
It is expected that after entering may, with the rise of temperature, coal consumption will gradually enter the peak season of “peak summer”, and the demand is expected to increase month on month; Driven by economic recovery, industrial power demand and coal consumption demand of non power industries will gradually increase month on month.
On the policy side, in May, the power coal supply will implement the new long-term cooperation policy of 2022. It is expected that the annual long-term cooperation proportion of coal purchased by power plants will be increased compared with last year. It is expected that the policy will affect the profits of coal enterprises, but the high fluctuation of coal prices will thicken the performance elasticity of coal enterprises.
On the import side, overseas coal prices remain high, and China’s coal imports have decreased, exacerbating the tense situation of China’s coal supply. Overall, the demand is expected to continue to improve, the superimposed inventory is at a low level, and the coal price is expected to rise. In terms of coking coal, the price of coking coal in the producing area has risen steadily.
On the supply side, the coking plant is limited by traffic control factors, and the insufficient supply of raw materials affects the output of coking coal. On the demand side, the factories in Tangshan are actively returning to work and production, the coke inventory of steel mills is at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is increasing. At present, the aggravation of the supply gap leads to the strong operation of coking coal price and high market sentiment; In the medium term, under the stable growth policy environment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased slightly, the demand for real estate steel is expected to improve, and the growth rate of manufacturing demand is stable. Overall, it is expected that the total output of iron and steel in the whole year will be basically flat, and the price of coking coal and Coke will fluctuate and consolidate. We mainly recommend China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , the target of high dividend, the target of high dividend undervalued transformation, Yankuang energy, the target of high growth undervalued Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , and the target of benefiting from the reform of state-owned enterprises Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
open source Securities: it will be the best stage to buy expected and allocate coal stocks
Recently, the performance of many coal enterprises in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the annualized valuation level of most enterprises was only 4 or 5 times, with a high safety margin; In addition, affected by the epidemic, the current demand is very poor, and the epidemic will eventually be controlled. The government is expected to continue to introduce corresponding policies for steady growth, and the demand is expected to remain good; At present, it will be the best stage to buy expected and allocate coal stocks. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the performance elasticity of coal enterprises continues to show, and the sector valuation is at a low level
Under the high international energy prices and the policy expectation of steady growth, the coal sector is expected to benefit directly and continue to be optimistic about the sector. The main reasons are: (1) the international coal price continues to be strong, the inventory in all links is low, and the supply and demand continues to be tight, which is expected to improve the Valuation: in China, the national daily output has rebounded to the level of 12 million tons under the requirement of ensuring supply, the inventory in all links is still at a medium low level, and the supply and demand side continues to be tight; Internationally, overseas coal prices remained high, import volume was difficult to grow, and the supply side further contracted.
(2) the policy establishes a high profit range, and the 22q1, Q2 and annual profits are highly flexible: the center of the long-term association of power coal and coking coal in 22 years is expected to rise by 10-30% compared with 2021. Among them, the coal price of each company is expected to rise by more than 30% year-on-year in the first quarter. It is expected that the coal price will continue to be high in the second quarter, and the annual profit growth of the industry in 2022 will be determined.
(3) under the double carbon background, the coal price will remain high, and the dividend advantage of coal enterprises will continue to appear. Continue to focus on companies with strong profitability and resources and elastic strengths: 601 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) etc; (2) Companies that transform new businesses and improve valuation, such as Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , power investment energy, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , etc. In addition, power coal and anthracite companies with flexible prices China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) (a, H), Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , etc. are also recommended to pay attention.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : recent fluctuations in the coal sector have increased, and undervalued stocks are still attractive
The recent volatility of coal stocks has increased, but the value of coal stocks is still undervalued. The catalysts for the short-term sector come from the expectations of the first quarter report and the changes in overseas energy prices, but with the passage of time, the impact of these catalysts is weakening, which also leads to increased sector volatility. However, it is expected that there will be a new round of pulse improvement in coal demand after the subsequent easing of the epidemic and the start of infrastructure construction; Medium term steady growth, gradual relaxation of real estate policy and other policy expectations will also support industry demand expectations. We suggest to focus on the undervalued companies corresponding to the latest expectation after the first quarter report: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) , power investment and energy.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: demand is expected to rebound, global energy shortage supports coal price
Combined with the continuous recurrence of the national epidemic after April, it is expected that the data in April will continue to decline further. As the most upstream energy and resource products, the coal sector is worried about weakening demand under the downward pressure of the economy. In May, the country may usher in a large-scale resumption of work and production, which will drive the significant increase of industrial power consumption and the rapid increase of steel production. After June, the residential power market will gradually enter the peak season, further driving the demand for coal.
Global energy shortage and price inversion have a continuous impact on imports. The conflict in the external situation affects the global energy pattern. The increase in Europe’s alternative demand for coal will continue to push up the global coal price. After the sharp increase in the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal HbA in April, it is estimated that the corresponding arrival price of China is 1925 yuan / ton, and the high price difference will further inhibit the enthusiasm of import and support China’s coal price.
In terms of investment suggestions, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) paid dividends for two consecutive years and the first quarterly report of the sector exceeded expectations. The market re recognized the dividend paying ability and profit releasing ability of coal. Recommendations: 1) the main line of the whole year: high dividend, green power transformation, growth coal chemical industry, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) / Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) / Yankuang energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) / power investment energy, China Xuyang group / Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; 2) Sitting on overseas coal resources: Yankuang energy; 3) High quality elastic Enterprises: ‘ Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) yes.
