Today (April 28), the trend of the three major indexes was divided. The Shanghai index fluctuated and rose slightly. As of the close, it was stable above the 2900 point mark, while the gem index fell slightly, down nearly 1.8% throughout the day. In terms of sectors, infrastructure and real estate sectors strengthened in the afternoon, and real estate stocks set off a trading tide. Yesterday, the market sentiment rose sharply. With the help of the collective outbreak of the track sector, individual stocks rose in a large area and more than 100 individual stocks rose by the limit. With the overall improvement of the market today, the early panic mood has warmed significantly.
multiple valuation sentiment indicators enter the bottom area
Since the beginning of this year, the three major indexes have fallen significantly, especially in the middle and late April. Affected by factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike and the accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the market has rapidly explored downward, breaking the shock pattern of the previous nearly one month, and the market sentiment has also cooled significantly. At present, the Shanghai stock index remains stable above 2900 points and falls back to the level in early July 2020. However, due to different profitability, the same point corresponds to different valuations. From the perspective of valuation level, according to the data of Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) Research Report, in the past 15 years, the current valuation quantiles of P / E ratio and P / B ratio of Shanghai composite index are at the low quantiles of 14.3% and 0.3% respectively .
In addition, a number of valuation sentiment indicators have also entered the bottom area. According to the statistics of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities Research Report, the implied risk premium level of 1) wandequan A is close to the 8-year 90% quantile level . 2) The current dividend ratio of shares and shares at the end of 2018 is close to that of shares. 3) the current market breaking rate is close to the position of the bear market in 2011 , and the median rise and fall on the first day of opening reached the historical bottom. 4) There is still a gap between the epidemic situation and the market earnings at the end of 2018, but it is still lower than that at the end of 2018. However, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the index entering the bottom area does not mean that the market will rebound, but even if the follow-up market continues to decline, the overall decline space is relatively limited, and the probability of the follow-up market continues to grind to the bottom.
sector hot spots continue to rotate, “three lows” stocks may focus on bargain hunting
At present, although the market sentiment has warmed significantly, the hot spots in the sector still continue to rotate. The track sectors such as automobile, semiconductor and medical, which strengthened sharply yesterday, fell collectively today, the indexes of several sectors fell by more than 3%, the lithium battery sector also rose and fell, and the leading stock Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell below the 400 yuan mark again. The recent decline in the performance of the real estate sector rose sharply this afternoon, and more than 10 stocks in the sector closed the daily limit, setting off a tide of daily limit.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that while the moving average is still going down, the market still has a process of repeatedly building the bottom and getting out of the bottom. It will take some time to get out of the bottom completely, first make an oversold rebound, and then make a trend market . If the oversold rebound, we should grasp the investment opportunities of oversold stocks. Anti falling must be anti rising. The falling is deep, the rebound is strong, the falling is shallow, the rebound is small, the oversold is done in the short term, and the “three complete” is dug in the medium term. In terms of operation, it is suggested that those with heavy positions continue to wait and see. Those with low positions can pay attention to the intraday correction opportunities and pick up the cheap chips killed by mistake. As long as they do not withdraw from the market, they can pay attention to the bargain hunting as long as low, low and undervalued “three low” stocks .
From the perspective of industry valuation, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) points out that the industries with current P / E ratio and P / B ratio within 10% in the past 15 years include computer, communication, textile and garment, medicine and biology, petroleum and petrochemical, environmental protection, non bank finance, media and electronics currently undervalued and low configuration industries may have a high margin of safety and face less pressure to reduce their holdings. It is suggested to pay attention to non bank finance, mechanical equipment, petroleum and petrochemical these cyclical industries; In the context of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the rise of US bond interest rate, although the valuation of growth industries has been suppressed in the short term, in the medium and long term, computer, communication, medicine and biology, environmental protection, media and electronics these growth industries may enter a better configuration range.
