After yesterday’s retaliatory rebound of a shares, there was a rest trend today (April 28). The three major indexes opened low in the morning. The Shanghai index rebounded upward at the beginning of the session and turned red smoothly, but the rebound strength was limited. Then the three major stock indexes dived and weakened, and finally the Shanghai index barely turned red and closed up slightly. However, the Shenzhen composite index showed weak performance, unfortunately closed down, and the trend of the gem index was more tragic.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities said that near the small and long holiday, the uncertainty of the peripheral market or the rebound will not be achieved overnight. 3000 points is expected to become the first important resistance to test the quality of this round of rebound. It is prudent to catch up before the festival. In terms of investment, it is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation in which the growth is slightly greater than the value.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the bottom grinding stage is unlikely to end soon, and the rebound process will still be twists and turns. At this stage, it is suggested to focus on the large cap value stocks with better defense ability and valuation repair space. At the same time, the recovery expectation after the epidemic is taking shape. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the recovery of supply chains across the country. In the short term, the oversold growth sector is more likely to be concerned by the market.
sector:
i. Baijiu
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that it is optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market.
The agency further analyzed that the first dimension of the year was Baijiu, mainly high-end and sub high-end Baijiu. Baijiu has a compensatory demand for business banquets in the future. At the same time, it is less affected by the price of raw materials and has strong demand and profit toughness. The impact of the epidemic in the off-season on Baijiu is limited. Some liquor enterprises control the volume and price in the off-season. At the same time, waist products are used as a supplement to the performance growth. The follow-up outlook is upward. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that it is recommended to actively layout: 1) optimize the layout of high-end liquor with little impact on performance / anti risk ability; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1.
II. Real estate development
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
BOC International Securities said that the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthening, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land.
2) regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) .
3) under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
4) property related services of Xuhui and Biguiyuan are more flexible in the near future, while property related services of Xuhui and Biguiyuan are more flexible in the near future. 4) property related services of Xuhui and Biguiyuan are determined to accelerate the improvement of the current life cycle.
summary of one picture: center / center
