Recently, all localities have advocated “local new year”. In this regard, analysts believe that “local new year” will inhibit the consumption of transportation and tourism during the Spring Festival, but will strongly promote the industries such as prefabricated dishes, entertainment and snacks. At the same time, some regions also issue subsidies and consumption vouchers, This will further enhance investors\’ expectations of “red envelopes” in the above sectors.
the prefabricated vegetable sector rose 5.62% during the year
the organization said it ushered in the window period of business transformation
With the Spring Festival approaching, many supermarkets and online platforms have actively launched prefabricated food products related to the new year’s Eve dinner, and the consumer demand for prefabricated food is gradually booming.
Prefabricated dishes save the trouble of purchasing food materials and simplify the production steps. After hygienic and scientific packaging, and then through heating or steaming and frying, they can be directly used as convenient specialty dishes on the table, and are more and more favored by young people.
From the A-share market, the prefabricated vegetable sector has also been popular with funds recently. According to the data of China stock market news choice, since 2022, the prefabricated vegetable sector has a strong trend, with a cumulative increase of 5.62%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai stock index in the same period (down 3.26%), and 20 of the 21 tradable concept stocks in the sector outperformed the market, accounting for more than 90%.
Among them, the cumulative increase during Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) was the first, 97.57%. The cumulative increase during Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.Ltd(600965) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) and other five stocks exceeded 30%.
Long Hao, chairman of Jinding assets, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the storage time of prefabricated dishes has been greatly prolonged due to the effective guarantee of the operation efficiency of the chain catering industry and the strengthening of China’s cold chain logistics and distribution capacity. Although the current prefabricated dishes are in the early stage of development, with obvious regional characteristics and scattered competition pattern, they are still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure, but the development prospect is worth looking forward to.
For C-end customers, prefabricated dishes solve the problems that consumers are unwilling to spend too much time cooking because of their busy work, and worry about hygiene and food safety when dining out and ordering takeout. Liu Youhua, research director of private placement network, said in an interview with Securities Daily that for end B, it reduces the loss of raw materials and labor costs, saves kitchen space, improves business efficiency, and is conducive to improving the profits of catering enterprises.
“Therefore, with the characteristics of convenience, safety and health, prefabricated dishes are in line with the current development trend of consumption upgrading, the increase in the proportion of single people, residential economy and the surge in the demand for group meals. Therefore, prefabricated dishes detonate both end B and end C at the same time, and the customer viscosity is very high, which makes the demand for prefabricated dishes growing.” Liu Youhua said that at present, prefabricated dishes are in the early stage of development in China, and the penetration rate is still very low, especially in the second and third tier cities and below. Compared with the penetration rate of 60% in Japan, this means that prefabricated dishes have very broad development prospects in China, which is expected to trigger a kitchen revolution and become a new outlet leading the catering industry.
According to AI media consulting data, the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market is estimated to be 345.9 billion yuan in 2021, which is in its infancy in China. With the consumption upgrading and cold chain logistics layout, the prefabricated vegetable market will accelerate its development at both section B and end C, and then increase year by year at a growth rate of 20%. The scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetables will be about 515.6 billion yuan in 2023.
In terms of performance, 14 listed companies with the concept of prefabricated vegetables had positive net profits in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for more than 60%.
Among them, the net profit during Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) was as high as 4.027 billion yuan, and the net profits of five companies such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Longda food and Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) exceeded 200 million yuan.
Further combing found that the organization has long had a layout for the concept stocks of prefabricated dishes. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, 13 of the above 21 prefabricated vegetable concept stocks had held positions in public funds, securities companies, social security funds, pension funds and other institutions, with a total position of 191 million shares. From the perspective of individual stock holdings, Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and other five stocks obtained the total positions of the above institutions, all exceeding 20 million shares.
From February 1 to February 10, there were 18 pre prepared vegetable concept stocks that could be traded. The total market value increased from 1006.701 billion yuan to 1037.807 billion yuan, and the total market value increased by 31.106 billion yuan during the period. In terms of the market performance of individual stocks, 11 stocks rose during the period, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) and other three stocks rose by more than 10%.
Two weeks before the Spring Festival in 2022, many institutions are optimistic about the investment opportunities of prefabricated vegetable concept stocks.
Long Hao said that he is optimistic about the upstream supply chain and cross regional brand chain enterprises in the prefabricated vegetable industry, which have strong advantages in cost, quality, hygiene, packaging and transportation, and deserve long-term attention of investors.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that it is optimistic about the further application of prefabricated dishes in the catering end, which can effectively alleviate the cost pressure of catering enterprises. At the same time, it is suggested that investors should pay attention to catering enterprises that extend to the field of prefabricated dishes and are expected to form business synergy.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises can become small and beautiful enterprises by deeply cultivating the area. For upstream agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, prefabricated dishes are a rare window of business transformation. If the product power advantage is prominent and the b-end and C-end distribution channels are quickly established, it is possible to produce a dark horse enterprise.
In its research report, Chuancai Securities pointed out that with the continuous development of the prefabricated vegetable market, enterprises with strong product R & D capability and high-quality products are expected to gain advantages and achieve rapid development in this blue ocean market.
multi factor favorable entertainment sector
The value of 12 concept stock markets increased by more than 4.8 billion yuan
Recently, there have been many good news in many sub sectors of the entertainment concept.
In terms of games, according to the 2021 China game industry report released by the game publishing Working Committee of China audio visual and Digital Publishing Association and China Game Industry Research Institute, the actual sales revenue of China’s game market in 2021 was 296.513 billion yuan, an increase of 17.826 billion yuan over last year, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, China’s revenue from self-developed products reached 255.819 billion yuan, an increase of 15.627 billion yuan over 2020, a year-on-year increase of 6.51%. China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that the scale of China’s game market will reach 308.4 billion yuan in 2022.
In terms of films, according to the data released by the state film Administration recently, the total box office of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) in 2021 reached 47.258 billion yuan, and the total number of screens reached 82248. The total box office and total number of screens in the whole year continued to rank first in the world, reflecting the consumption vitality behind the screens. The total number of film viewers recovered to 1.17 billion in 2021.
Some people in the industry said that by 2022, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) box office will reach 122.26 billion yuan, and the number of cinemas in China will exceed 20000.
There are 11 films for the Spring Festival. Including the sequel of Changjin lake, shuimen bridge of Changjin lake, produced by Bona film, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) and so on, the official announced that it would be put on the Spring Festival file on January 13, and the number of people who wanted to see it reached 225000 an hour later; The number of people who want to see miracle stupid children produced by bad monkey film, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Wanda film and television, etc. is 415000; Directed by Han Han, Ali film, cat’s eye, Hengdian, Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) and other films “Four Seas” have reached 373000 people who want to see; “This killer is not very calm” wants to see 331000 people; The number of people who want to see the IP series animated film “bear haunt · return to the earth” produced by Huaqiang Fangte has reached 217000.
In terms of technology, with the mature application of 5g, NFT and other technologies, it brings a sense of immersion and presence to games, movies and live broadcasting, which is conducive to consumers’ spiritual entertainment at home.
Combined with the capital market, as of January 14, the data of China stock market news choice showed that the total market value of the entertainment sector reached 448.2 billion yuan.
Among them, the total market value of 12 constituent stocks such as Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) , Wuhan Ddmc Culture & Sports Co.Ltd(600136) , Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Co.Ltd(600576) , Zhejiang Guangsha Co.Ltd(600052) , Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Shanghai New Culture Media Group Co.Ltd(300336) , Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) , Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) , Ciwen Media Co.Ltd(002343) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) increased within the month, and the cumulative total market value increased by 4.81 billion yuan during the period.
At the same time, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) obtained a net inflow of large single funds of 126 million yuan, and three stocks such as Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) were sought after by large single funds of more than 20 million yuan.
Looking back on the market performance in the two weeks before the Spring Festival in 2021 (from February 1 to February 10), the total market value of 18 constituent stocks in the entertainment sector increased during the period, and the cumulative total market value increased by 9.41 billion yuan. Among them, seven individual stocks such as H&R Century Union Corporation(000892) , Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) , Zhejiang Talent Television & Film Co.Ltd(300426) , Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(002445) , Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) , Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) increased by more than 5% during the period.
“When the market continues to fluctuate and fall, light index and heavy individual stocks are the main investment characteristics in the A-share market. At present, the overall market performance of the entertainment sector is average. With the approaching Spring Festival in 2022, the demand for entertainment consumption such as games and movies is expected to stimulate some individual stocks to strengthen in the next two weeks.” Zheng Lei, chief economist of Baoxin finance, told the Securities Daily that the impact of digital technology on cultural production will bring refreshing feelings to consumers. For example, the application of XR technology in entertainment will greatly improve the content richness and set off a consumption boom.
For the future investment opportunities of the sector, Ma Xiao, an analyst at new era securities, said that investors can pay attention to relevant sectors by closely following the development logic of 5g technology industry and online new economy, and considering the approaching Spring Festival holiday.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) we are optimistic about the film sub sector. We believe that although the film market has experienced a cold winter in the past two years, the long-term logic of high-quality film and television content and cinema companies has not changed, and it is expected to improve the head concentration.
For the game sub sector, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the game industry still has good growth in the long run.
snack consumption enters the traditional peak season
Five factors support the leading stock market
According to the data of China stock market news choice, since 2022, despite the cumulative decline of 1.22% in the snack sector, it still outperformed the Shanghai stock index in the same period (the cumulative decline during the period was 3.26%), and the share prices of 15 concept stocks rose, accounting for 62.5%.
Among them, the cumulative increase during Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) was the first, reaching 13.24%, and the cumulative increase of five concept stocks such as Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tianjin Guifaxiang 18Th Street Mahua Food Co.Ltd(002820) , Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) , Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) , Youyou Foods Co.Ltd(603697) also exceeded 3%.
In this regard, Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said that there are five main reasons for the recent active performance of the snack sector:
First, the embodiment of “lazy house economy”;
Second, China’s huge population base and the diversification and upgrading of consumer demand;
Third, with the help of the platform, the number of promotional activities increased during the festival and the orders for the Spring Festival accelerated;
Fourth, policy support to promote rural local employment;
Fifth, the valuation of the sector is more reasonable at this stage.
As one of the excellent investment tracks pursued by capital, the snack industry is still expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 10% in the future. It can be predicted that the leading snack stocks may usher in the “red envelope” market before the Spring Festival.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told reporters, “Under the background that the economy is more driven by domestic demand and consumption upgrading, the growth rate of snack consumption will be higher than the overall growth rate of the economy. The current competition pattern of the snack industry is scattered and fierce, the industry reshuffle is intensified, and there are more opportunities for top enterprises with brand and capital advantages to integrate and expand capacity. The top enterprises that seize the opportunity are expected to usher in a situation of continuous improvement in scale and efficiency, so the snack sector It has certain medium and long-term investment attraction. Since November last year, the scissors gap between CPI and PPI has narrowed, and the stable growth policy environment is more favorable to the consumer sector, including snacks. “
Institutions generally believe that the snack sector has three advantages. First, the price of related products is raised. Since 2021, snack food prices of leading enterprises including Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Unilever, kraft Heinz, Wangwang and haoliyou have increased one after another, which can effectively alleviate the pressure on the cost side and improve the profit level of enterprises. Milk tea leader Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) announced on January 4 that due to the continuous rise in the costs of main raw materials, labor, transportation and energy, the price of solid brewing milk tea products will be adjusted by 2% to 8% from February 1.
Second, profits began to recover. With the support of price rise + peak consumption season, the profits of listed enterprises in the snack industry began to recover in 2021.
Statistics show that among the 24 listed companies in the snack industry, 13 companies achieved year-on-year growth in net profit in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for more than 50%.
Among them, the net profit of Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co.Ltd(000716) and Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) during the reporting period doubled year-on-year.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the research institute interviewed by the Securities Daily, said, “the Spring Festival consumption peak season will drive the recovery of snack consumption. The performance of listed enterprises in the industry in the first quarter of 2022 is highly uncertain, and the snack sector is expected to strengthen.”
Looking forward to 2022, Chen Li said, “the weak trend of social consumption remains unchanged, the costs of raw materials, packaging and transportation continue to rise, and the annual performance of snack enterprises may continue to be under pressure. It is suggested that large snack enterprises should pay attention to multi category coverage, have strong terminal bargaining power, and effectively alleviate the pressure on cost by raising prices.”
Third, institutional attention has increased. Statistics show that in the past 30 days, a total of 9 snack concept stocks were rated as “buy” or “overweight” by institutions, Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) were recommended by institutions for 6 times, and Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) were recommended by institutions for 2 times or more.
In fact, during the Spring Festival in 2021, “local Chinese New Year” has been advocated all over the country. At that time, the demand for snacks increased, and the performance of relevant concept stocks was brilliant. Looking back on the market performance in the two weeks before the Spring Festival in 2021, from February 1 to February 10, 2021, the total market value of 21 snack concept stocks that can be traded increased from 271.813 billion yuan to 285.343 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 13.53 billion yuan. From the market performance of individual stocks, 14 concept stocks rose during the period, Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) and other three concept stocks increased by more than 10%.
The Spring Festival in 2022 is still two weeks away. How should investors grasp the investment opportunity of snack concept stocks before the Spring Festival?
Zhuang Hongdong, general manager of cheese fund, told reporters, “The Spring Festival has always been the peak of consumption. In addition to the advocacy of local New Year celebrations, we do have some snack foods, and we are optimistic about the expectations of the snack food sector. Looking forward to the snack food sector in 2022, the valuation of most snack food enterprises has fallen back to the central position of the valuation in the past five years after the decline since 2021, and the valuation of the sector has a need for repair, At the same time, the investment certainty of the leisure food sector is increasing due to the double positive background of good consumption next year and the volume and price increase of consumer goods. In 2022, the fundamentals of the snack food sector are expected to continue to improve, and the demand recovery will improve the performance elasticity of the snack food sector. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of residents\’ consumption power will continue to recover in 2022. A new round of price increase cycle for leisure food enterprises has been launched, which will accelerate the de inventory of channels and improve the profit level of channels. “
BOC International Securities said that the impact of sales channel reform on leisure food is still continuing. In the short term, it pays attention to companies with clear adjustment ideas and initial results, and still recommends companies with competitive advantages and clear growth logic in the long term.
First, looking back at 2021, the change of sales channels has changed the sales mode and customer acquisition mode of leisure food companies. The trend of online traffic decentralization has diverted traditional e-commerce, while offline traditional supermarkets have been impacted by new channels such as community group purchase;
Secondly, 2022 is a year to test the adjustment and improvement results of leisure food companies, the industry is expected to differentiate, and the adjustment effect is expected to affect the competition pattern of the industry;
Third, the first quarter of this year is the traditional peak sales season of leisure food, and the upcoming Spring Festival is the key time to win. Companies that do a good job in channel layout, product matching and marketing promotion have more competitive advantages. With the Kwai Chung, quick hand, and many other new channels, the central business of the tiktok, which is represented by Ali, has continued to flow diverting, and the leading enterprises of the leisure food industry have achieved competitive advantages in realizing multi-channel layout and creating multi-dimensional and three-dimensional sales channels.
