When consumers pay attention to the price of pigs, in fact, the price of meat ducks can't hold up and enter the loss range.
At the beginning of 2022, meat duck prices in many regions continued the downturn trend in the second half of 2021 and continued to decline.
Industry insiders believe that the price of meat duck has decreased significantly due to the overall supply and demand environment, market sentiment and other factors. On the one hand, the number of meat duck breeding has maintained a growth momentum in recent years, and the supply is relatively loose; On the other hand, consumer demand has decreased, and the imbalance between supply and demand has further intensified.
obvious loss trend
According to the data, the price of Shandong Changyi feather duck fell from 4.05 yuan / kg in August 2021 to 3.65 yuan / kg at present. In Zhaoqing, Guangdong, the current price of duck is 3.70 yuan / kg, which is close to the lowest point in 2021. One month ago, this index was still more than 5 yuan / kg price trend of wool duck in recent February yuan / Jin
"Now the duck industry is generally facing losses." The relevant person in charge of a listed enterprise said that according to the cost, the price of meat duck is divided into two parts, accounting for 88% of the breeding cost and 12% of the slaughtering cost. In the case of hairy ducks, the feed cost accounts for about 75%. According to the current feed price, the cost of a duck weighing 6 kg is about 22 yuan, and it is roughly estimated that the cost per kg is 3.67 yuan. According to the current price, there is basically no profit space.
On the whole, the price of livestock and poultry products is obviously affected by the relationship between supply and demand.
Shanghai Securities News learned that in recent years, the scale of poultry breeding, including meat ducks, is increasing, and the compound annual growth rate of slaughter volume is maintained at about 5%, making the supply of meat ducks gradually loose. Industry insiders estimate that the current annual output of meat ducks in China is about 5 billion production process of chilled and frozen products of live duck source: Henan Huaying Agricultural Development Co.Ltd(002321) 2021 semi annual report
According to the relevant person in charge, in addition to the influence of market price factors, waterfowl such as meat ducks are also affected by environmental protection and breeding mode. For example, the mainstream feeding mode of duck, goose and other varieties is still the traditional aquaculture, which is inefficient and has a gap with the requirements of environmental protection. The current live poultry products have short cycle, great price fluctuation and high risk.
Consumer sentiment is declining. Meat ducks are mostly used as snack food supply. The epidemic situation limits offline consumption scenarios, which significantly reduces the consumption of meat ducks. Taking Zhou Heiya, which mainly sells duck necks and other products, as an example, the operating revenue in 2019 was 3.2 billion yuan, which dropped sharply to 2.1 billion yuan in 2020. It is expected to return to the level of 2019 in 2021.
Henan Huaying Agricultural Development Co.Ltd(002321) is the first A-share listed enterprise in the duck industry. In the 2021 semi annual report, the company said that the fluctuation of duck price has a great impact on the company's performance. If the sales price of duck meat drops sharply or the increase is less than the cost increase, the company's future performance is at risk of difficult sustained growth or even decline. In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 226 million yuan.
industry maturity has improved
"Now the maturity of the meat duck industry is 5 to 10 years behind that of broilers." New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) according to the relevant person in charge, on the whole, the meat duck started relatively late, and the breeding scale and breeding method lagged behind the meat chicken. However, in recent years, the large-scale degree of the meat duck industry is rapidly improving, breaking away from the traditional extensive methods such as water culture in the past, and seeking advanced industrialized breeding modes such as cage culture some enterprises operate meat duck
"85% of the world's white feather meat ducks are raised in Shandong and its surrounding areas." According to the analysis of insiders, the scale of China's meat duck industry is relatively high, and the industrialization and scale of Shandong and other places are relatively fast, which brings space for the expansion of the scale of meat ducks. Shanghai Securities News found that the current enterprises engaged in meat duck breeding mainly include Huaying agriculture, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Zhengda Group.
The demand for meat duck products in different regions is also different. The Northeast market prefers duck head, while the southwest market has a special preference for duck blood and duck intestines. According to the analysis of insiders, different from livestock and poultry products such as pigs and chickens, the regional consumption characteristics of meat ducks are more obvious, which also limits the supply scope and substitution capacity of meat ducks to a certain extent, and is prone to regional overcapacity.
However, some industry experts pointed out that the price of duck meat and duck products is less related to pork, while chicken is higher. The recent decline in the price of wool duck has little to do with pigs, mainly due to the supply relationship and market mentality. Compared with pigs, the meat duck cycle is relatively short, and it does not rule out the phenomenon of improvement in the short term.
In addition, insiders said that meat duck related products break through the constraints of homogenization, enrich the product structure and develop characteristic products, which may help to promote the development of meat duck industry.
