Our reporter Liu Yelin reported that driven by the steady growth of international demand, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports increased by 21.1% year-on-year in the first quarter. China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of food, soil and livestock predicts that China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports will show a trend of "high in the front and low in the rear" this year.
Data show that in the first quarter, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports reached US $21.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, and the growth rate has exceeded expectations. This growth rate was 5.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021, and nearly doubled the growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports in 2021.
The chamber of Commerce said that since this year, the world's major economies Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , food inflation has continued to rise; The United Kingdom and other countries canceled the epidemic restriction measures to drive the restorative growth of the catering industry; The outbreak of bird flu in the United States and other countries, and the steady growth of international demand for aquatic products, condiments, canned foods and other foods have driven China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports to rebound.
International Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and food prices continued to rise, which significantly stimulated China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports. Affected by the rising prices of energy, fertilizer and feed, the report released by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on April 8 showed that the average food price index in March was 159.3 points, up 12.6% month on month, the highest level since the index was established in 1990. Vegetable oil, grain and meat prices hit record highs. According to the local chamber of Commerce, under the background of rising food inflation in most economies, sufficient Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply in China and relatively stable prices, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export growth has reached double digits for eight consecutive months since August 2021. Among them, in the first three months of this year, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports increased by 29.2%, 11.8% and 20.2% respectively year-on-year.
The relaxation of epidemic control in Europe, America, Japan and other countries has also stimulated the export of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) aquatic products and poultry. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, China's aquatic products exports reached US $5.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. As the Japanese government lifted the travel ban and hall food ban, the export volume of some poultry enterprises to Japan increased by about 10% in the first quarter.
The markets of developed countries are still the main driving force driving China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports. In March, the CPI of the United States and the euro zone increased by 8.5% and 7.5% respectively year-on-year. In the context of global inflation, developed countries maintain the purchasing power of residents by issuing energy subsidies. Data show that in the first two months of this year, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports to Japan, the European Union and the United States increased by 12%, 43.8% and 11.8% respectively; The growth rate of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports to ASEAN, Mexico and India was 11.8%, 4.8% and 11.5% respectively.
In the first quarter, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export achieved good results. What will be the trend of China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export in the future? In this regard, the chamber of Commerce for food and soil predicts that this year's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) overall export will show a "high before low" trend, China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) volatility will increase in the second half of the year, and China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) export growth will be in double digits throughout the year. Although countries have taken measures such as raising interest rates, releasing oil reserves and increasing grain production, the international supply of oil, food and chemical fertilizer is still tight, and the trend of international capital flow to the commodity market has not changed.
At the same time, the Fed's interest rate increase may lead to the return of international funds from emerging markets to the United States. In the view of the chamber of Commerce, the above factors will increase the volatility of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports in the second half of the year. In addition, the momentum of world economic recovery and trade growth will slow down, which will also have a certain impact on China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports. Affected by factors such as international inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and geopolitical conflicts, the WTO released trade data and forecasts on April 12. It is expected that the global GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2022, lower than the previously expected 4.1%; The global trade growth forecast for 2022 was lowered from 4.7% to 3%. In addition, the entry into force of RCEP is also conducive to promoting Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) exports. Some enterprises reported that affected by the improvement of RCEP customs clearance efficiency and the preferential policies of cumulative rules of origin, some Japanese orders have returned to China from Southeast Asian enterprises.
