At the end of the two-day decline, A-Shares finally ushered in a hearty counterattack on Wednesday. The Shanghai stock index rose 2.49%, strongly recovered 2900 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.94%, the gem index rose 5.52%, and the northbound capital bought a net 4.359 billion yuan all day.
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After hours, fund Jun interviewed more than 10 well-known public and private institutions such as Huaxia Fund, Xingshi investment, kuanyuan asset, Yuance investment, Guanfu asset, Hongshang asset, Huaxia future capital, Agricultural Bank of China Huili fund, Societe Generale fund, Taixin fund, Hanchuan investment, long-term investment, Yuyi asset, Ruiyi investment, zhurun investment, Chenxiang fund and Reagan fund to interpret the market together.
Public and private placement believes that the central financial and Economic Commission emphasizes the introduction of multiple policies such as comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, the easing of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, the prospect of resumption of work, the overall decline of US bond yields overseas, and so on. Many factors have prompted the market to have a strong rebound after a sharp oversold. But the agency also pointed out that the most pessimistic time has passed, but we should not be blindly optimistic. Looking forward to the future, epidemic prevention and control and “stable growth” are still the key, and the repair of market sentiment is not achieved overnight.
It is understood that some private equity institutions have increased their positions in consumption, infrastructure, scientific and technological growth and other sectors during the rebound on Wednesday; Some are still cautious and wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before making plans. Many public and private equity think that the current low market brings good investment opportunities in the medium and long term. We need to pay attention to the inflection point of the epidemic in May, the Fed’s interest rate hike, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and other factors, and gradually transition from the end of the policy to the end of the market.
favorable policies, epidemic relief and low US debt
many factors contributed to the strong rebound after the market oversold
“The overall performance of the market on Wednesday was a positive rebound under the recovery of confidence.” According to the analysis of official Lei, the chief research officer of Xingshi investment, on the Chinese side, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has seen a turning point, and there is hope that the epidemic situation in Beijing can be controlled in the early stage. The market’s expectations for the improvement of the economy and the extremely pessimistic mood in the early stage have been restored. On April 26, the number of newly infected people in Shanghai decreased significantly compared with the previous day, and “limited personnel, limited areas and limited activities” have been implemented in areas that have basically cleared the social aspect, In May, the social surface was cleared and the prospect of residents returning to work in the prevention area was in sight; At the same time, Beijing found out the epidemic transmission chain, and the data was better than expected, further alleviating market concerns. In terms of policy, it also boosted the expectation of market economy. On April 26, the central financial and Economic Commission requested to comprehensively strengthen the construction of infrastructure and made it clear to strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy. In addition, overseas factors that have recently suppressed the sentiment of A-share investors have also eased. On the one hand, the yield of US bonds has fallen across the board, the 10-year US bonds have fallen to 2.77%, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States has converged to more than 0; On the other hand, the expected guiding effect of the central bank’s reduction of foreign exchange deposit reserve policy is obvious, and the RMB exchange rate is resilient.
Zhao Dong, founding partner and research director of Guanfu assets, believes that the reasons for the rise of the market mainly include several factors: from the overseas perspective, the overnight US stock market significantly adjusted, the US bond interest rate continued to decline, and the market is gradually reflecting the expectation of US economic slowdown, thus easing the concerns about the inflationary pressure and the tightening strength of the Federal Reserve. Macro expectation is gradually transitioning from stagflation to recession; From the perspective of China, the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee strengthened the market’s confidence in steady economic growth, and the epidemic situation in Shanghai continued to improve. From a market perspective, the rapid decline for several consecutive days has also provided the basis for the oversold rebound.
Huaxia future capital said that affected by multiple negative events, a’s share capital fell rapidly on Monday and Tuesday, falling below 3000 points and 2900 points one after another. The daily rise of the company is less than 10% of the whole market, which is a reflection of extreme sentiment. First, after the market broke away from the fundamentals and fell indiscriminately, the valuation reached an all-time low. After the venting of extreme emotions, the market has the momentum to rebound. Secondly, intensive policies were introduced on Monday and Tuesday. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio to stabilize the exchange rate market. The State Council issued promotional fee documents. The central finance and Economic Commission meeting studied and discussed the content of strengthening infrastructure construction, which alleviated the market’s concern about the insufficient strength of steady growth policies. Moreover, on Wednesday, the number of newly diagnosed and asymptomatic people in Shanghai decreased, and the expectation of returning to work and production was strengthened. Hangzhou issued a 48 hour dynamic nucleic acid policy, which strengthened the confidence of “dynamic clearing” in the new environment.
Yu Yi assets believes that the A-share market rose in an all-round way on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully recovered 2900 points. As soon as the decline this year is washed away, investors mainly see the turnaround from the Chinese epidemic. First of all, from the number of covid-19 infected people in Shanghai, it has dropped from the previous peak of 2 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 000 to about 10000. The inflection point has now appeared, and some urban areas have achieved zero social aspects. Secondly, Shanghai is also promoting the construction of rapid detection stations on a large scale, hoping to achieve 15 minute rapid detection and prepare for the orderly resumption of work. “Therefore, the easing of the epidemic has weakened the capital market’s concern about the economy. At present, the valuation of many high-quality companies has returned to a relatively reasonable or undervalued level, driving the market to rise sharply against the background that the performance growth rate of the annual report and the first quarter report is higher than expected.”
Hongshang assets said that on Wednesday, the people’s daily issued a document that Shanghai will implement limited opening to areas with basically zero social aspects. The current nucleic acid test results in Beijing show that there is no large-scale transmission of the epidemic. The arrival of the inflection point of the Shanghai epidemic has eased investor sentiment. On Tuesday, the central financial and Economic Commission pointed out that there is still a lot of room for China’s infrastructure, and the follow-up will continue to work. With a more active fiscal policy, the economic bottom is expected to come as soon as possible, which is conducive to the performance of the capital market. Stimulated by the double positive, the index rebounded well today.
Xiong Lin, director of Ruiyi investment research, believes that the main reasons for the sharp rise of the market are: first, the market has fallen rapidly in the past month, and the overall market has seriously oversold. At the same time, after the sharp decline, the valuation level of A-Shares has fallen to the lowest quantile of 2% in history, and the valuation has a margin of safety; Second, from a marginal point of view, the decline in the epidemic data in Shanghai indicates that the most serious period of the epidemic has passed. At the same time, the Shanghai municipal government has launched supporting schemes for resumption of work and production, and economic and social activities are expected to return to normal, which greatly reduces the market’s concern about the economic downturn caused by the closure and control of the epidemic.
Zhurun investment said that US stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, NASDAQ fell nearly 4%, and most of the Asia Pacific stock market fell on Wednesday. Under this background, A-Shares can achieve a major counterattack, and Shanghai Stock Exchange recovered the 2900 and 2950 points. The main reason for the A-share counterattack is that it has fallen too much in the past few days. In this case, the sharp rebound of the market is inevitable. In addition, state leaders presided over an important meeting. The meeting stressed the importance of national infrastructure development and mentioned that “we should guide market expectations, clarify policy guidance and principles, and stabilize market confidence”, which effectively improved market expectations and restored market confidence. Once confidence is restored, the liquidity problem of the market can be effectively solved.
ABC Huili Fund said that policy signals promoted the repair of market confidence. After the intensive introduction of multiple policies on Tuesday, the A-share market fluctuated higher on Wednesday, lithium, photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy tracks rose sharply, and military industry, infrastructure and other sectors also performed strongly. Overseas, the yield of 10-year US bonds fell from a high to about 2.79% this week, and the valuation pressure of overseas interest rates on the growth sector has eased.
In terms of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the two sides continued to maintain the positive momentum achieved in the previous Istanbul negotiations, and overseas risk aversion also cooled.
In addition, after the central bank lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio by 1%, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar stabilized. In China, the signal of policy stability maintenance boosted market confidence. On April 26, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission stressed that we should comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system to lay a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. The people’s Bank of China said it would strengthen the support of prudent monetary policy to the real economy. On the market side, after the previous adjustment, the market valuation has been at the historical bottom level. With the stability of market confidence by the central financial and Economic Commission, the epidemic data in Shanghai confirmed the marginal remission of the epidemic, and the market restored its confidence in China’s economy and credit expectations. In addition, building materials, construction and cycle sectors performed well, the growth sector ushered in rebound space, and popular tracks such as semiconductors and photovoltaic were favored by funds.
capital positive layout adjusted growth stocks
market confidence is in the process of gradual repair
Some institutions believe that growth stocks deserve more attention in this rebound. Huaxia Fund said that the market has ushered in a big rebound. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved, and the number of newly diagnosed people has dropped significantly on April 26. In terms of epidemic prevention, it is clear to implement “limited personnel, limited areas and limited activities” in areas that have basically cleared the social aspect. When the epidemic situation eases, Shanghai is expected to gradually return to work and production. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Beijing is generally controllable, and the previous worries of the market have been greatly alleviated; On the other hand, the cheapness of growth stocks is also an important reason for the strong rebound on Wednesday. Previously, we also mentioned many times that after the sharp decline of growth stocks, they have been very cost-effective. The dynamic PE of many companies is even lower than the relatively strong stable growth main line stocks, while the growth is better, which is very attractive to the funds at the bottom.
Zhang Binbin, general manager of Chenxiang fund, believes that the rebound on Wednesday lacks significant fundamental factors and is more a technical rebound after a sharp decline. However, compared with the sharp decline on Monday and the sharp rise on Wednesday, it will be found that the market structure is quite different. During the sharp fall on Monday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and gem are in a uniform decline of about 5%, while the market on Wednesday is structured, and the rise of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is less than 3%, The growth enterprise market rose by 5.5%. The main capital inflows were new energy and other track sectors represented by Ningde and Tianqi, while real estate and banking stocks even fell. This is an interesting phenomenon. “Considering the reasons behind it, our understanding is that the market has begun to have some differences on the previous consensus expectations (steady growth and then growth). Now some funds have begun to make significant adjustments to the layout and valuation, and there is still a growth logic of opportunity in the medium and long term.”
Huang Qianyi, manager of Taixin modern service industry mixed fund, said that under the background of the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission emphasizing the comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction, the construction related industrial chain performed well on Wednesday morning; Under the background of the significant improvement of epidemic data in Shanghai and the good financial report of Maotai in the first quarter, consumption performed better. However, the real sharp rebound in the market began with the depletion of short selling kinetic energy of high growth sectors with high performance growth, such as new energy, electronics, national defense and military industry. As the valuation and sentiment of the high growth sector have been extreme, the rebound has rapidly driven the rapid entry of bottom reading and position replenishment funds under the background of high attention.
Public and private placement believe that market confidence will gradually recover. Societe Generale Fund said that the steady growth of infrastructure was mentioned at the central financial and Economic Commission meeting on Tuesday, and the national development and Reform Commission stated on Wednesday that actively expanding orderly investment is a favorable factor to promote the recovery of the market. At present, there is no shortage of liquidity in the A-share market, and the epidemic situation in China has also seen an easing trend. With the size of China’s economy, overseas inflation and the tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve are not enough to have a huge impact. “We believe that the main reason for this year’s A-share dilemma is the lack of confidence in the market, and the key to improving confidence is the strong steady growth policy. Given the impact of this round of epidemic on the economy, we are optimistic about the further development of relevant policies. With the mitigation of the epidemic in Shanghai and the gradual smooth flow of logistics, we predict that China’s economic situation is expected to improve significantly in the next few months. In the early stage, very weak investors Under the mentality, the bottom rebound of the market will certainly not be achieved overnight, but I believe that the market is gradually approaching an important turning point within the year. “
Chen Yin, director of Yuance investment, pointed out that under the background of the sharp decline of US stocks overnight, the sharp rebound of the A-share market on Wednesday is logically consistent with the previous decline, reflecting that the main contradiction determining the operation of the A-share market comes from Chinese factors. Since April, a new round of epidemic in Shanghai has aroused market concerns. First, it is uncertain when the trend of the epidemic can be contained. Second, it is uncertain about the impact of logistics, closure, shutdown and other factors on China’s manufacturing economy. In the face of greater uncertainty, the market lacks new guidance, there is a concentrated selling and hedging behavior, and there is a lack of buying in the short term, resulting in a large decline. The sharp rebound of the market on Wednesday also comes from the turnaround of the above main contradictions: with the recent reduction in the number of social cases in Shanghai, Changchun and other places, the hope of dynamic clearing of the social aspect appears, and it is possible to resume work and production in an orderly manner; At the meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission on Tuesday, the work direction of strengthening infrastructure investment and construction was clearly put forward, which provided a source of support for the subsequent recovery of real economic activities, and the extreme pessimism of the market in the short term was alleviated.
Kuanyuan assets believes that the market decline this year is mainly affected by three aspects: the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic in China. The extreme decline since April is more due to the continuous fermentation of market concerns about the economic situation caused by the outbreak of the epidemic in China, especially Shanghai, and the short-term sharp decline of A-share and RMB exchange rates. Carefully examine the main contradictions affecting the recent market. The epidemic situation in Shanghai has gradually stabilized and declined. The high probability of the maximum short-term pressure has passed. Based on the experience of Shanghai, other cities in China should be able to better measure the relationship between the economy and the epidemic situation in the follow-up. If necessary, strengthen prevention and control at the first time, which is much more controllable on the whole. The social production order has also been gradually and orderly restored with the support of the government.
Tao Ye, general manager of Hanchuan investment, said that the recent extreme decline in the market was mainly due to concerns about the potential impact of the epidemic. Some long-term structured pessimistic forecasts dominated sentiment and were reflected in asset price forecasts in a very short time. From this perspective, any marginal positive change in the epidemic situation can easily promote the improvement of expectations from a very low position, so as to drive the short-term correction rebound, especially in the industries we are most worried about, such as the “new growth” sector in the manufacturing industry. Further, with the effectiveness of the “dynamic clearing” method, Shanghai will gradually withdraw from the impact of the epidemic. When the long-term expectation returns to the right track, the benign recovery of the market will come and be more sustainable.
Long term investment said that the impact rate of short-term trading has probably come to an end, and the uncertain factors concerned by the market are also improving marginally: China’s epidemic control has achieved results, the exchange rate has stabilized, overseas US bond interest rates have begun to fall, and the oversold rebound of the market is reasonable. It is observed that some high-quality stocks begin to reflect the changes at the performance level, the short-term market shows the characteristics of bottoming, and the medium and long-term stock market is bound to return to the industrial logic and fundamental logic.
some private placement actively increased positions in the rebound
optimistic about steady growth and consumption
From the perspective of product operation, Yu Yi assets said that in the near future, it is still dominated by band operation, and some positions were increased on Wednesday. The main direction of position increase is still the consumer sector that needs to be repaired in the process of epidemic recovery. “For the future, we feel that the adjustment for the decline of more than 30% of the gem since this year has been very sufficient. From the Russian Ukrainian war at the beginning of the year to the spread of the epidemic in China after March, it has triggered the passive stop loss of some absolute return products. Therefore, under this background, we feel that the systemic risk of the A-share market has been effectively released, which is the bottom area that can be laid out for a long time. Of course, there will be a process to build the bottom , it will not be achieved overnight, so in terms of configuration, we will build warehouses in batches and superimpose bands.
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Zhao Dong told fund Jun that recently, Guanfu assets has made certain adjustments to its portfolio, increasing its holdings of consumer goods, reducing its holdings of cyclical assets, and adjusting the position structure of the manufacturing industry. On Wednesday, there will be mainly high-end manufacturing. “Looking forward to the future, we believe that the two main factors leading to the decline of the early market are undergoing marginal changes: Overseas macro expectations are expected to gradually change from stagflation to recession, and the tightening expectations are expected to improve after the FOMC fed further raises interest rates and formally shrinks its table in May. The epidemic situation in China is likely to continue to improve. In the future, it will be a process of gradual transition from the end of policy to the end of market.”
Zhang Binbin also said that there was a small increase in positions on Wednesday. The sector layout is still science and technology growth stocks, including new energy photovoltaic, electronics and semiconductors. After the adjustment in the past six months, it has a certain configuration value. In the future, it will still linger in the game of steady growth (old and new infrastructure and real estate chain) and scientific and technological growth, “In the short term, we expect the impact of the epidemic on the economy to be controlled, and we can see some positive signals in Jilin and Shanghai; in the medium term, the main melody of each stage of the market depends on the strength and trend of economic policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy; in the long term, we still adhere to the deep-rooted and familiar scientific and technological growth enterprises, enjoy the dividends of scientific and technological innovation, grow together with growth, wait for flowers to bloom and become butterflies. ”
Zhurun investment said that it has continued to increase its positions recently, and the range is not low. It has increased its positions in equity assets more vigorously this week, and the positions of equity assets of some portfolios have been rapidly increased to about 40% from less than 10% in the middle of this month. “On Wednesday morning, we made a small increase in positions. The main promising sectors include the recently oversold sectors and the infrastructure concepts with favorable policies, including new energy vehicles, construction machinery, etc. there may also be systematic investment opportunities on the science and innovation board and the gem. We are still optimistic about the next market, and there may be an obvious repair of valuation. Considering the irrational investment behaviors such as passive position reduction in the early market, the repair is unlikely The speed may not be slow. “
Some private placements are relatively cautious. Fang Lei admitted that the overall market valuation is reasonably low and has high investment value from the medium and long-term perspective. All kinds of high-quality growth companies with sufficient adjustment have opportunities. At present, the investment cost performance of consumer assets may be more prominent. Xingshi is constantly optimizing its portfolio structure and gradually distributing companies with better medium and long-term growth.
Hongshang assets believes that on the whole, under the influence of the epidemic, there is still some uncertainty in the short-term economic growth. “We believe that with the marginal improvement of the epidemic and the strength of fiscal policy, the economic bottom is likely to appear later in the second quarter, and the current index point is close to the bottom of the market. After the market decline, we see more and more high-quality companies with increasingly prominent cost performance. This is a good opportunity given by the market panic, and these companies are also the main force of the market rebound. We will carefully study and judge the cost performance of these companies And lay out the layout at the appropriate time point, and strive to earn considerable returns when the market sentiment gradually stabilizes. “
Tao Ye said that since this year, Hanchuan investment has paid more attention to the individual stock level in the construction of investment portfolio, and decided the position allocation based on individual stock factors. At the same time, considering that the liquidity situation of the equity market is still at the bottom stage, we believe that positions can be appropriately concentrated on some stocks that are not crowded, with increased performance and significant value, and then gradually improve the industrial allocation when the emotional level tends to be stable.
As for the investment direction, Tao Ye believes that in the dimension of 1-2 quarters, the focus of stabilizing the economy is still in the traditional investment field and the consumption link after the epidemic has eased slightly. Therefore, we will pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of relevant leading enterprises. In the medium and long term, the core theme at the individual stock level is still China’s high barrier manufacturing enterprises with leading market position, core technology and core resources in the world. At the same time, after some policy changes and market changes, share growth will also be a direction of significant value creation, such as consumption, building materials, agriculture, information technology, etc.
market low provides good investment opportunities in the medium and long term
pay attention to the clarity of the epidemic situation in May, interest rate increase and other factors
\u3000\u3000 “At present, there is a high probability that the most panic in the market has occurred in the short term. In the current position, we can not be further pessimistic, but we should not be too blindly optimistic. The bottom area of the market is a repeated process, and there may be some fluctuations in the follow-up of the epidemic. What we need to do is to continue to observe the progress of the epidemic and the promotion of national economic support policies. In the longer term, the gradual restoration of China’s social production order is inevitable Inevitably, the current low market level formed under multiple negative shocks exceeding expectations may be a very good investment opportunity in the long term. ” Kuanyuan asset theory.
Huaxia Fund said that after the short-term sharp decline and oversold of the index, the marginal improvement of the factors that suppress risk appetite is conducive to the change of investor sentiment to optimism and drive the rapid replenishment of OTC funds. The rebound may not be achieved overnight. Whether the market can confirm to get out of the bottom will ultimately need to confirm the change of the national epidemic trend after May Day, and whether the economic fundamentals can have a substantial improvement in the growth rate and structure of social finance under the relay of the steady growth policy. On the whole, with the overall market valuation falling into the historical bottom range, and with all kinds of pessimistic expectations fully digested, although the index may still be repeated, long-term investment opportunities have become more and more positive.
Looking ahead, Fang Lei said that looking back, epidemic prevention and control and “stable growth” are still the key. In an environment with relatively sufficient policy space, economic stabilization is a matter of high probability. When the local epidemic gradually subsides and high-frequency data begin to confirm the effect of resumption of work, market confidence will gradually recover, and the positive rebound of the market will continue to boost investor confidence and form positive feedback. At present, the market has formed consistent expectations for A-Shares to enter the value range and have high medium and long-term investment value. Once market confidence is restored, the market rebound may not be small.
Huaxia future capital said that the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China will remain the primary factor of market focus in the coming period, which will determine the process of China’s economic recovery and the speed of investor confidence repair. “We judge that with rich experience in the prevention and control of Omicron virus and the possible listing of domestic covid-19 small molecule drugs in the next 1-2 months, China’s epidemic prevention and control policy will have more flexible adjustment space to support the gradual bottom reversal of the A-share market.”
Zhurun investment believes that in the medium term, confidence in the fundamentals of China’s economy and the independence of monetary policy will be strengthened. First, the development of fiscal policy is in progress. Coupled with the strong guidance of the policy on infrastructure investment, the improvement rate of investment data will be effective in the future. Second, the measures to stabilize consumption issued by the State Council are of far-reaching significance to the stability of residents’ consumption in the medium term. Third, the recent devaluation of RMB actually provides space for the independence of China’s monetary policy relative to the Fed’s monetary policy in May and after. The early release of exchange rate pressure means that the people’s Bank of China can choose to adjust the policy interest rate according to the camera after May, which also constitutes a good interest rate in the medium term. With the gradual control of the epidemic and the stable and healthy development of China’s grain and energy market, the value of China’s assets will be reflected in the near future. This is a deeper underlying logic.
Chen Yin admitted that after a high-level withdrawal, the recovery of market sentiment will not be achieved overnight. The subsequent repair process and structural direction of the market will also be promoted around the changes in the contradiction between the epidemic and the economy. On the one hand, we should observe whether logistics, unsealing and other measures can be gradually improved, and on the other hand, we should pay close attention to the specific implementation measures of the policy side for the construction of new and old infrastructure fields.
“As the market sentiment tends to stabilize, some favorable conditions will play a role, and the portfolio layout needs to be carried out in combination with these favorable factors. First, the market valuation has fallen to a low position after the early decline, and the undervalued value feature can provide more security protection for the portfolio; second, the recent release of the first quarterly report provides investors with the opportunity to find and verify high-quality growth stocks. We see that some companies with excellent first quarterly reports even It also showed relative strength when the market fell in the early stage. These high-quality stocks will become the advantageous structural direction after the market sentiment is stable. “
Xiong Lin thinks, “For the future, the short-term market will gradually recover from the most pessimistic mood, waiting for the settlement of macro factors outside China, and we remain optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of the market. On the one hand, due to the recent spread of the epidemic in Shanghai and the closure of cities all over the country, the market is extremely pessimistic about China’s macroeconomic prospects. With the gradual decline of the epidemic in Shanghai, the epidemic prevention and control policies are more flexible and effective, and China’s economic and social activities It is expected to gradually return to normalization, and the market will gradually recover from its pessimism about China’s macro-economy; On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and shrink the table in May. At that time, the pressure brought by the rise of US bond yields will come to an end. At the same time, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is expected to be clarified in early May. The landing of these uncertain external factors will be conducive to the valuation repair of the global capital market. “
The epidemic situation in Jilin has been released, and the social control of the epidemic situation in Shanghai has been largely relieved, and the epidemic situation in Jilin has been basically relieved. In the early stage, the negative people’s exchange rate, the decline of US stocks and the increase of US interest rates need to be observed for a long time. China’s economic policies still need to be further clarified. In the later stage, the market pays more attention to the news of consumption revitalization and the implementation of the steady growth plan. In the short term, it pays attention to the results of the meeting of the Political Bureau in April. From the perspective of valuation, many sectors have been at historically low levels after adjustment. Through the decline in the early stage, it has further consolidated the valuation advantage, The possibility of short-term rebound continuation increases, and the trading opportunities on the left appear, which is suitable for taking the opportunity to participate. For funds with low risk appetite, you can continue to wait for the index to stabilize. After the construction of the bottom area is completed and the economic environment is clearer, you can buy on the right. At the present stage, you can closely follow up and study.
Looking forward to the future, ABC Huili Fund believes that market stabilization and repair still need to observe the inflection point of China’s epidemic and the verification of steady growth policy and credit stabilization. The emergence of some positive signals is expected to become an opportunity to reverse market risk sentiment. In the medium and long term, as of April 25, the difference between the implied annualized rate of return of A-Shares and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, which was a very high level in history, reflecting that A-Shares already have allocation value from the perspective of large categories of assets. The economic pessimism caused by the previous epidemic is expected to improve marginally. If China’s epidemic is well controlled, the economy is expected to return to normal and alleviate the main concerns of the market. The measures to stabilize growth are still expected to be implemented gradually. Following the release of the recent policy signal to maintain stability, infrastructure investment and construction are expected to be strengthened. The April Politburo meeting will be an important policy observation window. From the perspective of market style, the style is expected to return to equilibrium after market adjustment. Steady growth and balanced allocation of high prosperity are the core investment strategies. It is suggested that investors pay attention to the repair of high-end manufacturing industry and offline economy after the epidemic, appropriately increase the allocation of inflation beneficiary industries, and hedge the medium-term inflation risk.
