Benefiting from the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the downstream new energy vehicle industry, the performance of listed companies of negative electrode materials continued to be red in the first quarter of 2022.
The performance of leading enterprises is eye-catching. Beiteri expects a net profit of 430 million yuan to 470 million yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 64.09% - 79.35% Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) it is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter will be 750 million yuan to 850 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 148% - 181%. In addition, the first quarter net profit of Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) and other enterprises increased by 90.28%, 160.73% and 69.09% - 88.99% respectively.
strong downstream demand
it is expected that it will still grow steadily in the second quarter
The company's demand for new battery products increased significantly in the first quarter, which was driven by the company's demand for new battery products
Beiteri also said that during the reporting period, the downstream battery market continued to boom, the market demand for battery materials increased, and the company's positive and negative material business maintained rapid growth.
According to the data of the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII), in 2021, the shipment of negative electrode materials in China reached 779000 tons, a year-on-year increase of more than 86%; In the first quarter of 2022, the shipment of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery increased nearly three times year-on-year, with the shipment exceeding 96gwh.
GGII predicts that the shipment volume of lithium batteries in China will reach 1456gwh in 2025. According to the estimation of 1000 tons of negative electrode materials required for 1GWh, the demand for negative electrode materials will reach 1456000 tons in 2025.
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) lithium battery materials analyst Chang Ke told the Securities Daily: "with the trial production volume of the head enterprise in the second quarter, the integrated layout of the negative electrode materials of the head enterprise will help the steady growth of the company's net profit."
capacity construction accelerated
June supply shortage eased
According to incomplete statistics, since 2022, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Kaijin energy, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shangtai technology, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) and other artificial graphite negative electrode head enterprises have accelerated the expansion of graphitization capacity and negative electrode material integration projects.
On February 20, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) signed an agreement to jointly increase the capital of zhongkexing city in Gui'an new area for the investment and construction of the "integration project of lithium battery cathode materials with an annual output of 100000 tons". The former increased the capital by 420 million yuan and the latter by 280 million yuan Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) also said that the construction of Sichuan Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) cathode integration of 60000 tons is being actively promoted. By the end of 2021, the company has a negative material capacity of 35178 tons, a capacity under construction of 20000 tons, and an annual capacity of 15000 tons of graphitization, of which 3000 tons have reached full capacity and 12000 tons of graphitization are under construction. It is expected to reach production within this year.
The large-scale expansion of the industry has naturally caused many investors' concerns about "whether the production capacity will far exceed the market demand". Beiteri said that at present, the overall supply of the negative pole market is still tight. The planned new production capacity of the negative pole is mainly for the new demand in the future, and the release of production capacity also needs a time process, especially the new production capacity of enterprises outside the original industry.
Chang Ke said that in the short term, the production capacity of negative electrode materials is still in a state of tight supply. It is expected that the release of some production capacity in June this year will alleviate some of the pressure.
"The expansion of the negative electrode material industry chain will not bring serious overcapacity." Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute researcher Wang Meiting told reporters: "Unlike traditional industries, the new energy sector has many technical routes and rapid technological iterations. Backward technical routes and corresponding production capacity will be quickly eliminated and the life cycle is limited. Therefore, large-scale capacity construction does not mean homogeneous competition, which will lead to the survival of the fittest rather than overcapacity. In addition, the energy growth rate is high, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to increase by more than 20% per year in the future."
raw material price rise
enterprise layout new materials
At the same time of high performance, listed companies of negative materials are also facing the pressure of rising raw material prices. In the fourth quarter of 2021, beiteri's sales revenue increased by nearly 1 billion yuan, but its profit decreased instead of increasing. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of beiteri said that the continuous rise in the prices of coke raw materials and graphitization in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased the cost of artificial graphite, increased the proportion of revenue and reduced the gross profit margin of negative electrode.
The price rise continued until the first quarter of 2022. Mysteel data show that the prices of needle coke and petroleum coke rose month on month in the first quarter, and the price of low sulfur coke reached a new high. Daqing coke operated at a high level of 8800 yuan / ton, and the five low sulfur coke plants increased by 2200 yuan / ton to 2500 yuan / ton in the first quarter, up 37.1% to 49.06% month on month; In addition, due to the insufficient supply of existing production capacity and the slow release of new production capacity, the graphitization processing cost increased to 26000 yuan / ton to 27000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 4% to 8%, and the transaction volume of individual manufacturers ranged from 28000 yuan / ton to 29000 yuan / ton.
Chang Ke told reporters that some small factories of negative electrode materials are under pressure due to the rising cost of raw materials and graphitization. The price increases range from 3000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton. The head manufacturers have not adjusted the price yet, which is expected to be reflected in the second quarter. The price adjustment of other large factories will be discussed according to the new orders signed in the second half of the year, and the increase range is expected to be 3000 yuan / ton - 5000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the profits of large factories in the head will be compressed due to the impact of raw materials.
It is worth noting that in order to reduce costs, many listed companies actively promote the layout of upstream raw materials and processing processes such as graphitization. Taking Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) as an example, the announcement shows that the company's annual graphitization capacity will be 15000 tons in 2021, and the proportion of self supply will reach 43%, of which 3000 tons have reached full capacity. The relevant person in charge of the company said that in the fourth quarter of 2021, with the completion and operation of the company's graphitization capacity, the cost pressure was relieved, and the annual gross profit margin was revised up to 26%.
There are also companies that build a high "moat" through the layout of new materials. Beiteri said in its annual report that the company will accelerate the forward-looking layout of new negative electrode materials and plans to invest in the construction of a 40000 ton silicon-based negative electrode material project in Guangming District, Shenzhen Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) also said that the company has involved in the field of new carbon materials such as silicon carbon anode, B-type titanium dioxide and graphene, and has the basic conditions for industrialization.
Chang Ke believes that the new negative electrode materials laid out by negative electrode material manufacturers are mainly silicon-based negative electrode materials and hard carbon negative electrodes, and metal lithium as negative electrode is a development direction of solid-state batteries in the future. In addition, in terms of graphite negative electrode, enterprises are also continuously improving the process, increasing the charging capacity, reducing costs, increasing efficient auxiliary material cooling and screening system, accelerating cooling, shortening the production cycle, improving production capacity, and promoting cost reduction and efficiency increase of negative electrode business.
"At present, the technology in the battery field has not been fully finalized, and there is huge room for innovation." Wang Meiting said.
