On Tuesday, the A-share market rose and fell, the three major stock indexes hit new lows since the current round of adjustment, and the Shanghai stock index fell below 2900 points. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 288643 points, down 1.44%; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.66% and the gem index fell 0.85%. Although the stock index continued to decline, the financial sentiment has fluctuated and differentiated, and some sectors rose against the trend yesterday. Some research institutions believe that the most pessimistic moment is over, and investors should gradually turn to optimism in strategy.
disk shows multiple positive phenomena
Although the stock index still fell across the board yesterday, from the disk data, market sentiment has eased after Monday’s sharp adjustment. On the disk yesterday, more than 700 stocks closed red, and more than 50 stocks rose by the limit or more than 10%.
In terms of sectors, unlike all sectors fell on Monday, the large consumption sectors on the disk strengthened across the board yesterday, becoming an important local hot spot Leading food and beverage stocks such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) etc. have been continuously adjusted since 2021. After “bottoming” in the early stage, they have won market attention again recently with their performance stability. This means that market funds are beginning to respond to positive signals from fundamentals.
In terms of short-term sentiment, Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) opened the limit yesterday morning and closed at 10.46 yuan, up 2.35%. Under the leadership of Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , some subject subjects have opened the limit. Market analysts believe that this may mean that some short-term capital sentiment has been the first to pick up.
In terms of funds, northbound funds bought 1.543 billion yuan of A-Shares yesterday, and once sold nearly 1.8 billion yuan in the morning, that is, northbound funds chose to increase their positions against the trend in the process of afternoon index diving. Specifically, the Shanghai Stock connect sold a net 278 million yuan and the Shenzhen Stock connect bought a net 1.821 billion yuan, continuing the pattern of “strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai” on Monday.
In addition, the brokerage sector with strong performance in the early adjustment plunged across the board on Tuesday, dragging down the index China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) strategy team’s Research Report Analysis believes that from historical experience, covering the decline of strong sectors or strong stocks may be one of the important signals in the final stage of adjustment.
favorable policies continue to be released
In terms of policy, good news has also been released.
After Monday’s trading, the central bank announced that in order to improve the ability of financial institutions to use foreign exchange funds, it decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point from May 15, 2022, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced from the current 9% to 8%. Subsequently, the downward trend of RMB exchange rate eased, and the panic and pessimistic expectations in the A-share market eased simultaneously.
On Tuesday, the central bank also responded to market fluctuations, saying that there have been some fluctuations in the financial market recently, which are mainly affected by investors’ expectations and emotions. At present, China’s economic fundamentals are sound, the potential for endogenous economic growth is huge, and substantial progress has been made in preventing and resolving financial risks.
In addition, yesterday afternoon, the Shanghai Securities, futures and fund industry association jointly issued a voice, saying that it would firmly maintain market stability and give full play to the positive role of industry institutions.
organization: the most pessimistic moment is over
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, said that the market showed signs of stabilization after the Shanghai index fell below 2900 points yesterday. Falling below 2900 points reflects the pessimism of market funds, but in fact, the logic of “steady growth” has not been destroyed. The most pessimistic moment for the epidemic expectation, the worst moment for the economic and policy expectation, and the most pessimistic stage for the global inflation expectation are gradually passing.
“In the coming quarter, the improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is highly probable. Although the process is likely to be repeated, it should gradually turn to optimism strategically and meet the low-level layout tactically. It is suggested to give priority to the direction of post epidemic repair and steady growth.” Chen Guo thinks.
Wu Kaida, managing director of deppon securities and deputy director of the Research Institute, said that at present, the market panic is close to the extreme value. Whether from the rapid depreciation of the exchange rate, the rise of asset linkage, or the extreme value of sentiment indicators, the panic decline in the short-term market may come to an end.
Wu Kaida believes that the crux of the market trend shift lies in the changes in the internal and external environment. At present, the dawn of short-term improvement is that the social aspect of the epidemic in Shanghai is cleared. In addition, the closing period of the first quarterly report, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in May, China’s epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production are all important observation points at present. Overall, the policy bottom has been continuously consolidated, and the economic bottom is expected to be found in the second quarter.
