Today (April 27), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. The overall trend of the morning trading was weak. There was an occasional upward attack in the trading day, which also weakened rapidly, and the stock index rose again near noon; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes further launched an offensive, led by the gem index, and the strong rebound pattern was seen at a glance.
From the disk point of view, A-Shares sounded the rally number of counter attack, lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors staged a rising tide, military industry and infrastructure targets also showed strong performance, while other industries and concept sectors rose more or fell less, and the local profit-making effect soared. It is worth mentioning that in the engineering construction sector, as of press time, “popularity king” Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) rose again.
Earlier, Guosheng Securities said that there was no need to be pessimistic about the current position, control the overall position and treat the current bottom decline rationally. Patiently wait for the opportunity of the market bottom rebound, and actively pay attention to the market trend and the introduction and implementation of policies.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] lithium battery
Anxin securities mentioned that China’s lithium resources have a prominent strategic position and high development certainty. Enterprises deeply involved in China’s resource development or integrated layout may have long-term competitive advantages. (1) In terms of resources, according to USGS, China’s lithium resources account for about 6% of the world. From the perspective of lithium resource distribution, according to GGII, more than 80% of China’s lithium resources are stored in salt lakes and distributed in Qinghai, Tibet and other provinces; Lithium ore resources are concentrated in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Xinjiang and other provinces; Clay resources are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou and other provinces. (2) At the policy level, the Ministry of industry and information technology has repeatedly proposed to ensure supply and price stability, and lithium resources are highly dependent on foreign countries at this stage. (3) At the level of corporate layout, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and others also participate in the integrated layout.
Capital Securities said that the policy to promote the resumption of production in the automotive industry chain, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to improve. At present, the epidemic still has a great impact on the demand for energy metals, and the price of lithium and cobalt is under pressure. Driven by the policy, the automotive industry chain in Shanghai is returning to production in an orderly manner. With the gradual restoration of smooth logistics, the impact of the epidemic may weaken, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to recover rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that although the epidemic in China is still serious, the resumption of work and production of the manufacturing industry is proceeding in an orderly manner driven by all parties. This week, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production, SAIC, Tesla and other complete vehicle enterprises have completed the offline production of complete vehicles, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) factories have resumed production, and relevant parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work one after another. The Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of communications and other ministries and commissions have jointly issued a voice to ensure smooth logistics and stable supply chain of the industrial chain, so as to support enterprises to resume work and production in an orderly manner. With the resumption of work and production, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the new energy vehicle industry are expected to increase one after another, and the demand for lithium salt in the upstream of the industrial chain will also be marginally improved. In the case of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the performance of enterprises in the lithium sector continues to be released significantly. After the sharp correction of the overall sector in the early stage, the annualized valuation is currently in a very low position, with high allocation cost performance. Driven by the favorable recovery of downstream production, it will also benefit the lithium sector to form a rebound.
[Topic 2] National Defense Industry
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) mentioned that with the gradual announcement of the performance in the first quarter, the market’s concern about the uncertain profit release of the military industry sector is expected to be significantly weakened. Superimposed on the continuous strengthening of the expectation of the counter cycle of the military industry sector, the comparative advantage of the performance growth among the China news industry and the low performance base of q3-q4, the sector is expected to gradually stabilize and strengthen, and the matching degree of valuation is the key to stock selection at present. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the performance brought by the expansion and release of the sector’s capacity is expected to accelerate upward again, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the improvement of operation and management and potential professional integration are expected to further promote the correction of the sector’s valuation.
In addition, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) also believes that the 2021a and 2022q1 reports of several listed companies in the military industry show that their performance has improved significantly, and the outlook of the industrial chain has been comprehensively verified from top to bottom. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, various new policies such as pricing mechanism and prepayment have developed in favor of military enterprises, and the profit margin of military enterprises is expected to continue to improve, Since 2022, the trend of sharp decline in the industry and the performance fundamentals of industry companies have deviated seriously, so we are optimistic about the repair of the deviation of the industry market.
Dongguan Securities said that after the year to date correction, the current industry has a certain cost performance. From the performance data recently released by military enterprises, the performance of most middle and upper reaches enterprises has achieved high growth, the contract liabilities of most downstream main engine plants have increased significantly year-on-year, the prosperity of the industry is still good, and the countercyclical attribute of the industry is prominent.
The agency further analyzed that this year is the “closing year” of the reform of state-owned enterprises. The reform of military state-owned enterprises is expected to further accelerate and is expected to activate the vitality of military enterprises. Long term optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased. We are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables. On the other hand, we are optimistic about the transfer and transformation of aerospace technology achievements to economy and society, the development of Beidou industrial chain under aerospace industry services and the Internet of things, and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform.
[Topic 3] photovoltaic equipment
Great Wall Guorui securities mentioned that the valuation is at a historically low level, and the industry allocation value appears. From the perspective of valuation, the mechanical equipment industry currently has configuration value. Benefiting from the accelerated production expansion of power battery manufacturers and the commercial application of TOPCON battery technology, lithium battery equipment manufacturers and photovoltaic battery equipment manufacturers have performance support. It is recommended to pay attention to equipment manufacturers with good orders and less affected by the epidemic.
For the photovoltaic equipment sector, Debang Securities pointed out that benefiting from the high boom of downstream production expansion + technology iteration in the photovoltaic industry in 2021, listed companies of photovoltaic equipment are expected to have a high growth rate in the first quarter. At present, the companies that publish the first quarter report or performance forecast include Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (performance year-on-year + 109%), Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (performance year-on-year + 49.8%), Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) (performance year-on-year estimate + 42.1% to 70.5%).
The downstream expansion of production has brought full orders to equipment manufacturers. At the same time, the emergence of new technologies promotes the upgrading of equipment and the increase of equipment investment and gross profit margin. Considering the strong cycle certainty of the transformation of special aircraft equipment from order to income, it is recommended to pay attention to the high growth rate of 22q1 performance and the growth target of new orders exceeding the expected period.
In addition, for the lithium battery equipment sector, the agency further analyzed that in 2022q1, the cumulative production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles were 1293000 and 1257000 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year. The market penetration of new energy vehicles has reached 19.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.4pp The production expansion plan of China and battery manufacturers is continuously advancing. Benefiting from the downstream expansion of production and the continuous breakthrough of orders, the lithium battery equipment industry continues to iterate and upgrade in the front, middle and rear technical links. 4680 and other new forms also put forward new requirements for coating, liquid injection, polar lug welding, automatic assembly and other links. The pre impact of the early production expansion expenses of the lithium equipment industry has been gradually digested, and the performance elasticity will be reflected quarterly. The profit of the first quarter report is expected to continue to increase. Continue to focus on the bottom of the valuation and actively realize the high-quality target of the lithium battery equipment sector.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that at present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance in the first quarter is strong, and the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest. The demand for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) alternative fossil energy is increasing, so it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; Affected by the supply chain problems, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen in the short term, and the valuation has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in April will still have significant month on month growth, and the impact of short-term logistics will soon recover. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
[theme 4] project construction
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) mentioned that at present, the cost side is still high and the delivery is affected by the epidemic. The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is still under pressure in the short term. We continue to wait for the fundamental turning point. Considering the resumption of work after the epidemic is alleviated and the early price rise is transmitted to the terminal, we pay attention to Q2 or the turning point. In the medium term, the risks of the real estate chain are gradually released, and the room for the rise of raw material prices is limited. With the enhancement of the scale effect of high-quality leaders (national capacity and channel construction), channel reform (overweight small B or C), product structure optimization (category expansion or system integration), the endogenous growth momentum still exists, and the impact brought by upstream and downstream industrial factors may be gradually weakened. In the long run, the clearing of the consumer building materials market will be accelerated, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the competition pattern will be further optimized. Continue to recommend the leader of the first echelon of the strong HENGQIANG, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal of the second tier leader who underestimates the value.
In addition, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that they are optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure investment in 2022. In terms of companies, it is suggested to pay attention to several main lines: (1) undervalued construction central enterprises: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , with high dividend rate and real estate business valuation and repair space; Q1 order exceeds the expected China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , with more BOT assets; (2) Building transformation: Transformation of green power operation Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and transformation of chemical industry China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ; (3) High growth local state-owned enterprises: focus on Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) etc; (4) Steel structure: it is expected that the prosperity will continue to improve, such as the steel structure processing leader ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) with new breakthroughs in BIPV.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the central bank had issued 23 anti epidemic financial measures to give advanced support to real estate, urban investment and construction enterprises. In March, infrastructure continued to rise. Although the downward trend of real estate has not been reversed, the positive effects are accumulating. From the perspective of Zhengzhou, which relaxed significantly earlier, the transaction data has not been significantly reflected, and the forward-looking indicators such as the volume of views have been significantly improved. We believe that due to the impact of the epidemic and inflation, the recovery of fundamentals may be slow and tortuous, but the gradual recovery of performance growth in the next four quarters is a high probability. As a core variety in the investment chain, building materials need more attention, whether it is cyclical or growing.
