Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : cement price is expected to maintain high fluctuation! The valuation of major enterprises has been very attractive
Looking forward to the middle and late May, if the impact of the epidemic on logistics and construction is gradually weakened, the demand for rush work is expected to be released, resulting in a significant rebound in the demand for cement, waterproof, pipe and other building materials. We believe that the peak of completed area has delayed but not disappeared, the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds is also conducive to the completion, and the new capacity of the supply side industry is expected to be limited. The supply and demand of the completed side is not pessimistic this year, and float glass enterprises have advantages in photovoltaic business, and their photovoltaic, electronic and medicinal glass are expected to contribute to the performance increment. We recommend Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass; The cement price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. The enterprises are still growing through the extension of the industrial chain. The valuation of major enterprises has a good attraction. With the steady growth expectation gradually heating up, there is room for valuation repair. It is suggested to focus on the market in the peak season and recommend China building materials, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) . The sub industry of consumer building materials is in the period of accelerated concentration and product structure optimization. It is recommended that Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) . Other non real estate industry chain companies recommend Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , and suggest paying attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Beijing Lier High-Temperature Materials Co.Ltd(002392) .
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : accelerated growth of infrastructure investment pay attention to the follow-up cement rush market
The orders of some central enterprises increased rapidly, and the follow-up rush of major projects superimposed the peak season of cement. It is suggested to layout the phased market of cement. The improvement of local real estate policies will be gradually transmitted to the level of building materials. The fundamentals of consumer building materials are clear at the bottom. It is a leader with good past operation data and excellent management. It is highly anti cyclical and the valuation has been cost-effective. It will continue to be recommended.
(1) consumption of building materials: low demand + high cost, improvement can be expected, and pay attention to the leader with strong performance toughness. ① Affected by the epidemic, rising costs and other factors, we expect the performance of consumer building materials to be low in the first quarter, and the release of backlog demand after the epidemic will drive the rapid growth of performance; ② Many local real estate policies have been improved. Under the setting tone of “no speculation in housing”, the time lag from the improvement of real estate policies to the sales / construction end will be longer than in the past, but will not be absent; ③ The demands of peer transmission costs are consistent, and the lessons learned from the slow price increase last year, the pace of price increase this year is faster than last year, which means that the cost impact is smaller than last year; ④ In the allocation direction, select the first-line leaders with strong performance toughness + the leaders with low value with high safety margin. Continue to recommend [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ].
(2) cement: with the enterprises in some regions implementing off peak production, the inventory continues to rise, the pressure is relieved, and the cement price maintains a shock adjustment trend. Leading [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] PE and Pb are at a low level, with high dividend yield and strong safety margin. Other key leaders include [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ].
Chuancai Securities: focus on the opportunity to reverse the plight of key industries in the Yangtze River Delta
In the first quarter, the economy started smoothly, but the economic production of some provinces and cities was greatly affected by the epidemic, especially in the Yangtze River Delta. In the context of orderly resumption of work and production, we believe that listed companies in high-end manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta have the logic of dilemma reversal and superimpose the long-term main line of digital infrastructure. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction of optical modules, optical fibers and optical cables, industrial interconnection and other related targets: Broadex Technologies Co.Ltd(300548) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , etc. In addition, the later stage of major construction projects is expected to usher in centralized construction, benefiting the traditional infrastructure and related industrial chains.
In 2022, there were 173 major construction projects in Shanghai, including 67 in science and technology industry, 24 in social livelihood, 17 in ecological civilization construction, 56 in urban infrastructure, and 9 in urban-rural integration and Rural Revitalization. Among these major projects, industrial parks and transportation projects account for a large proportion, and the infrastructure engineering sector will directly benefit. It is suggested to focus on the direction of rail transit equipment, and the relevant targets: Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) , Hongrun Construction Group Co.Ltd(002062) . Ordinary steel, cement and other building materials are also expected to be driven. According to the data recently released by the Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter, the cement output decreased by 12.1%, the pig iron output decreased by 11%, the crude steel output decreased by 10.5% and the steel output decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. We expect that there will be a concentrated outbreak of demand for building materials at the end of the second quarter, and the price and sales volume of building materials are expected to rise. Relevant targets: Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , etc.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : it is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the construction sector from three directions
We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the construction sector from the following three directions: (1) the prosperity of the infrastructure municipal chain and the improvement of valuation under the continuous force of steady growth: we are optimistic about the opportunities for the continuous repair of the valuation of leading infrastructure enterprises with historically low valuation and stable performance. From the perspective of historical recovery, central infrastructure enterprises enjoy continuous excess returns from the stage of broad monetary force to economic stabilization, and pay attention to China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) Jsti Group(300284) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (China Shipping asset valuation repair), etc.
(2) there are bright spots in the demand structure and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new business: with the promotion of policies such as double carbon strategy and green and energy-saving buildings, the prosperity of infrastructure segments related to prefabricated buildings, energy conservation and carbon reduction and new energy is high, and enterprises with relevant transformation layout are expected to benefit. Last week, the 14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development was issued, which proposed to promote building photovoltaic, prefabricated construction and decoration. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) ; Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , etc. of new energy business transformation and incremental development; Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) and others benefiting from the large volume of building photovoltaic market, and Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and other leasing service providers of green building materials (aluminum formwork).
(3) reform direction of state-owned enterprises: 2022 is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is expected that while the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing steadily, the previous reform dividends in corporate governance structure, strengthening incentives, mixed reform and improving efficiency and stimulating vitality are expected to enter the release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of performance under cost reduction and efficiency increase, the transformation layout of new businesses and asset reorganization, and pay attention to Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) etc.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : from the perspective of dividend yield and valuation! 234 cement stocks with high cost performance
In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry supply side under the objectives of “double control” and “double carbon”: a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry’s capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to continue to withdraw in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%. b) The cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction intensifies the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlights the leading competitive advantage, is expected to further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of “volume reduction and price increase”. After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth.
From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement stocks still have high investment performance price ratio. Recommend [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ], faucet [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], and pay attention to Jiangxi faucet [ Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ] and northwest faucet [ Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ], which are expected to benefit from the development of infrastructure. The growth of concrete water reducing agent is better and the faucet is better α Outstanding, the first is [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ].
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : infrastructure chain remains the main line focus on the layout opportunities of consumer building materials
Capital construction is still the main line; Focus on the improvement of sector fundamentals. According to the data, the infrastructure construction did advance in the first quarter. At present, the cost side is still high, and the delivery is affected by the epidemic. In the short term, the profitability of the consumer building materials sector is still under pressure. We continue to wait for the fundamental inflection point. Considering the resumption of work after the epidemic is alleviated and the early price rise is transmitted to the terminal, we pay attention to Q2 or meet the inflection point. In the medium term, the risks of the real estate chain are gradually released, and the room for the rise of raw material prices is limited. With the enhancement of the scale effect of high-quality leaders (national capacity and channel construction), channel reform (overweight small B or C), product structure optimization (category expansion or system integration), the endogenous growth momentum still exists, and the impact brought by upstream and downstream industrial factors may be gradually weakened. In the long run, the clearing of the consumer building materials market will be accelerated, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the competition pattern will be further optimized. Continue to recommend the leader of the first echelon of the strong HENGQIANG, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal of the second tier leader who underestimates the value. The investment proposals come from the view of the investment proposals that put the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 35.
Minsheng Securities: Cement peak load shifting and inventory reduction building materials confidence rebounded after the first quarterly report
The goal of steady growth is firm. It is expected that after the completion of epidemic prevention, the infrastructure chain will work hard, and the cement, construction, waterproof and pipeline sectors are more relevant. The epidemic occupies the control energy of local governments. It is optimistic that the plan at the beginning of the year will be implemented and the scale will be restored after the epidemic. ① Cement is used at the starting end of the real estate chain / infrastructure chain. It is expected that there will be an inflection point in the fundamentals in May. In the short term, although the total demand is sluggish and disturbed by the epidemic. Key target recommendations [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ]. ② In the construction sector, it is suggested to pay attention to performance fulfillment, which can be cut in from the perspective of key regions. The key targets are [ Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) ] [ Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ] [ Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ] [ Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ]. ③ Waterproof belongs to the category of strong start-up end, and the accelerated improvement of the industry pattern is ignored, suggesting that the leading income is expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to focus on [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ].
Pay attention to the “dilemma reversal” of the real estate chain, more cities join the “city for city” relaxation, and take the lead in benefiting from the start-up end + growth target: ① the consumption of building materials and cement focuses on the marginal change of performance, the superposition and release of demand from March to April after the epidemic, and the improvement of fundamentals is expected to accelerate; ② Cost side pressure has been fully recognized, and price increases have been hedged in waterproof, coating, cement and other industries; ③ In 2021, the growth rate of real estate sales, commencement and construction is high before and low after, and the Q1 base is high. The dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest to pay attention to: ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. Double tap combination is a key recommendation, with the core leading [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ].
Huachuang Securities: infrastructure development is significantly ahead of schedule or will promote the repair of downstream building materials ahead of schedule
Under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the demand for steady growth is further enhanced, and the infrastructure development force is significantly ahead of schedule, or it will promote the repair of downstream building materials ahead of schedule; In addition, considering that more than 60 cities have issued loose real estate policies since the beginning of the year, more than 100 cities have independently lowered mortgage interest rates since March, the real estate demand side policy continues to increase this week, and the real estate investment commencement data continues to weaken, implying greater policy care expectation. At the same time, combined with our recent grassroots research, the forward-looking indicators of the real estate market in some regions of Q1, such as visits and de urbanization data, began to improve, It is expected that the follow-up will boost the demand for building materials, which is conducive to the improvement of capital and sales of industrial chain companies. In view of the strengthening of policy expectations, the marginal improvement on the demand side and the decline in the high crude oil price on the cost side, we continue to give priority to recommending the infrastructure chain and pay attention to the expected repair opportunities of the real estate chain.
In terms of investment suggestions, cement sector: focus on Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) . Glass sector: the completion in 2022 is expected to show a pattern of weak in the first half of the year and strong in the second half of the year. The growth inflection point probably appears at the end of 2022q2, driving the recovery of glass demand and the reduction trend of the supply side of the industry. It is expected that the peak of cold repair will come in 2022q1, with both supply and demand vibrating. Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . Glass fiber sector: medium and long-term planning of wind power to improve the demand expectation of glass fiber materials, with emphasis on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . Consumer building materials sector: the start-up end is expected to improve synchronously with sales, and the prosperity of consumer building materials at the start-up end is expected to be ahead. Key recommendations for gypsum board Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ; Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , are recommended in the waterproof industry. The pipe industry focuses on Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
