Recently, A-Shares continued to adjust, and some data began to show dominant changes. The financial Associated Press reporter noted that as one of the investment reference indicators, the net breaking degree of listed companies (the share price is lower than the net assets per share) is also deepening. Data show that as of April 27, more than 500 A-share listed companies have broken the net, accounting for 10.5% of the total number of listed companies.
On the one hand, the net breaking of listed companies is often related to their own growth. If the company has business problems, the probability of net breaking will be improved. On the other hand, in the falling market, the lack of liquidity often leads to the failure of price discovery function, and the net breaking will follow one after another.
The increase of broken net is not to add food to pessimism. If you look at it in a different posture, you may find another mystery. The data show that in the past decade, the proportion of net breaking listed companies accounting for more than 10% has occurred five times, and they all occurred in the relatively bottom area of the market, respectively in June 2005, October 2008, may 2014, October 2018 and March 2020. According to past experience, after the number of listed companies with broken net accounts for 10% of the total, A-Shares often usher in a bull market or the start of structural market.
The chart shows the trend of Shanghai stock index since 2005, with five obvious market bottoms
History does not repeat itself, but always follows the same rhyme - this is one of Mark Twain's famous sayings. Although it will take time to test whether the plot that has happened five times in history will be staged in A-Shares again, many institutions have spoken out recently and are firmly optimistic about A-share investment. At present, they have entered the bottom seeking stage.
On April 27, Chen Guo, managing director and chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, once again expressed the latest market view that the bulls are now China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) strategy research report proposes that A-Shares have shown some bottom characteristics in terms of policy, valuation, capital and behavior signals, and the opportunities are gradually greater than the risks in the medium and long term.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) strategy chief Zhang Xia even set a flag, believing that there have been multiple bottom signals for a shares. In the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the easing of external negative factors, and the significant decline in turnover and transaction amount, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle. A shares may usher in a more certain upward "perfect storm", and the time window is about from mid April to mid May (the time point of the research report published in March).
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that there is a "falling opportunity" to bargain hunting. The influencing factors of economic fundamentals have not reversed, and the trend inflection point of the Shanghai epidemic (including the market's confidence in the zeroing policy to defeat Omikron and achieve orderly resumption of work and production) and the substantive rescue inflection point of real estate enterprises will be the core driving force of this round of rebound.
after the net breaking rate exceeded 10% in history, the market returned as scheduled
Break first and then stand. After combing the data, the financial Associated Press reporter found that there were five restorative rising markets after the bottom in history, namely the "century's largest bull market" launched in June 2005, the "4 trillion" market launched in October 2008, the "growth stock leverage bull market" launched in May 2014, the "blue chip bull market" launched in October 2018, and the structural shock upward market launched after March 2020.
Before these five quotations, the number of listed companies that broke the net accounted for more than 10% of the total number of a shares. Taking the recent March 2020 as an example, affected by the sudden covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, US stocks experienced a historical spectacle of fusing on the 4th of 10 days, and A-Shares also suffered heavy losses. From March 10 to April 3, the Shanghai index fell 6%, below 2800, the Shenzhen index fell 9% and the gem index fell 9%. During the period, the share prices of more than 370 listed companies fell below the net assets per share, accounting for about 10% of the overall listed companies.
For another example, before the largest bull market in the history of 20062007, A-Shares appeared at the bottom of the market in June 2005, and the bottom was 1664 points on June 6 of that year. Between the declines, 10.2% of listed companies broke the net.
A senior market person in Beijing who has invested in A-Shares for ten years told the financial associated press that looking back on the bottom of the market in history, it is not difficult to find some characteristics that can be used for reference. Net breaking is only one of them. In addition, the change of P / E ratio, the change of the number of retail investors, whether the fund is unsalable, and whether the stock price ratio exceeds the bond can be used as a micro reference basis.
four major expectations are consistent and good
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that good news came frequently recently. It is not difficult to find that A-Shares in 2022 still have good investment opportunities.
China's economic fundamentals are still improving april 26, Xi Jinping presided over the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission. The meeting pointed out that we should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, focus on networking, network supplement and chain strengthening, and strive to improve network efficiency. The meeting stressed the need to strengthen the support and guarantee of infrastructure construction. Under the unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee, we will establish a coordination mechanism for major infrastructure construction, coordinate the planning and construction of infrastructure in various fields and regions, and strengthen the guarantee of resource elements such as land, sea and energy. The meeting stressed the need to fully promote infrastructure, which shows the country's determination to promote economic growth this year.
On April 27, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of this year, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 195557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Zhu Hong, Senior Statistician of the industry department of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that in the first quarter, a combination of tax cuts and fee reductions and measures to help enterprises relieve themselves were taken, and the profits of industrial enterprises maintained steady growth.
medium and long term funds are expected to enter the market well recently, the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the development of individual pensions was published. As an important institutional arrangement in the top-level design of China's social security system, this supplementary old-age insurance system with government policy support, individual voluntary participation and market-oriented operation will bring a more positive and long-term social impact. With the gradual introduction of the individual pension system, it will drive more long-term stable funds to enter the capital market and promote the long-term and healthy development of the capital market.
On April 26, the CSRC issued the opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of the public fund industry to vigorously promote the high-quality development of the industry and make progress together with the interests of investors. The opinions clearly stated that we should increase the proportion of medium and long-term funds and strive to improve the sense of acquisition of investors.
the policies of all parties have formed a joint force to boost market confidence 4 on April 26, the meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission also stressed the need to coordinate the two major events of development and security, firmly establish the bottom line thinking, effectively strengthen the ability of major risk prediction and early warning, and have practical response plans and specific operable measures.
All regions and departments should accurately understand the spirit of the decision-making and deployment of the central financial and Economic Commission, take the initiative to shoulder responsibilities and act actively, and jointly promote the implementation of the decision-making and deployment. We should strengthen evaluation and supervision, do a good job in comprehensive balance, and correct errors in time if there are problems. We should enhance the effectiveness of implementation and evaluate the effectiveness of implementation in all aspects with practical results. We should guide market expectations, clarify policy guidance and principles, and stabilize market confidence. We should strengthen supervision and inspection, carry out follow-up and ask for results, and constantly improve the effectiveness of implementation.
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). On this basis, for urban commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and agricultural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced. It is understood that the first RRR reduction will release about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds.
Subsequently, the central bank announced again that in order to improve the utilization capacity of foreign exchange funds of financial institutions, it decided to reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point from May 15, 2022, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced from the current 9% to 8%.
The central bank further said recently that it will increase the support of prudent monetary policy to the real economy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote the healthy and stable development of financial markets and create a good monetary and financial environment. The central bank will strengthen the support of prudent monetary policy to the real economy, especially support industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, support agricultural production and energy supply and increase supply, launch scientific and technological innovation refinancing and inclusive pension special refinancing, increase RMB 100 billion refinancing, support the development and use of coal and enhance energy storage, and increase small refinancing to support agriculture and special refinancing for civil aviation.
In addition, the financial Associated Press reporter noted that the general office of the State Council also recently issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption, focusing on promoting consumption and putting forward 20 policies and measures in five aspects. Market analysts believe that the further implementation of these policies and measures will also have a positive impact on stabilizing current consumption, stabilizing the macro-economic market and continuously releasing the huge market potential.
epidemic prevention and control inflection point is expected to improve april 26: the inactivated vaccine of covid-19 virus, a biological Omicron mutant of Sinopharm group, won the clinical approval of the State Food and drug administration. In addition, on the 27th, no matter the number of asymptomatic infections or the number of newly diagnosed patients (excluding asymptomatic transfer to diagnosis), the new data in Shanghai decreased significantly. Shanghai will implement "limited personnel, limited areas and limited activities" in areas that have basically cleared the social surface, and the prospect of residents returning to work and production is in sight. At present, the Beijing data is better than expected.
