Today (April 27), the market oversold and rebounded. In the morning, the overall trend of A-Shares fluctuated weakly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, followed by repeated shocks, and the stock index rose again near noon; In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes further launched an offensive, and finally the gem index rose 118.66 points, or more than 5%; The stock index rose more than 2% and returned to above 2900 points.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the rapid rotation of the sector, the operation is very difficult. At this time, we should "use our brains and hands lazily" and wait for the market expectation to turn to the same again and gather investment confidence.
At the same time, Wanhe Securities said that the current situation still needs to remain calm, stay on the sidelines and reduce operations. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the driving point of steady growth policy. In terms of industry, we can pay attention to industries related to the stable growth chain, such as real estate, infrastructure, etc., as well as industries related to the post cycle of real estate.
sector:
I. lithium battery
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that although the epidemic in China is still serious, the resumption of work and production of the manufacturing industry is proceeding in an orderly manner driven by all parties. Recently, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production, SAIC, Tesla and other vehicle enterprises have finished off-line production, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) factories have resumed production, and relevant parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work one after another. Many ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of communications have jointly called for smooth logistics and stable industrial chain supply chain to support enterprises to resume work and production in an orderly manner. With the resumption of work and production, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the new energy vehicle industry are expected to increase one after another, and the demand for lithium salt in the upstream of the industrial chain will also be marginally improved. In the case of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the performance of enterprises in the lithium sector continues to be released significantly. After the sharp correction of the overall sector in the early stage, the annualized valuation is currently in a very low position, with high allocation cost performance. Driven by the favorable recovery of downstream production, it will also benefit the lithium sector to form a rebound.
Anxin securities mentioned that China's lithium resources have a prominent strategic position and high development certainty. Enterprises deeply involved in China's resource development or integrated layout may have long-term competitive advantages. (1) In terms of resources, according to USGS, China's lithium resources account for about 6% of the world. From the perspective of lithium resource distribution, according to GGII, more than 80% of China's lithium resources are stored in salt lakes and distributed in Qinghai, Tibet and other provinces; Lithium ore resources are concentrated in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Xinjiang and other provinces; Clay resources are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou and other provinces. (2) At the policy level, the Ministry of industry and information technology has repeatedly proposed to ensure supply and price stability, and lithium resources are highly dependent on foreign countries at this stage. (3) At the level of corporate layout, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and others also participate in the integrated layout.
Capital Securities said that the policy to promote the resumption of production in the automotive industry chain, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to improve. At present, the epidemic still has a great impact on the demand for energy metals, and the price of lithium and cobalt is under pressure. Driven by the policy, the automotive industry chain in Shanghai is returning to production in an orderly manner. With the gradual restoration of smooth logistics, the impact of the epidemic may weaken, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to recover rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
II. Photovoltaic equipment
Great Wall Guorui securities mentioned that the valuation is at a historically low level, and the industry allocation value appears. From the perspective of valuation, the mechanical equipment industry currently has configuration value. Benefiting from the accelerated production expansion of power battery manufacturers and the commercial application of TOPCON battery technology, lithium battery equipment manufacturers and photovoltaic battery equipment manufacturers have performance support. It is recommended to pay attention to equipment manufacturers with good orders and less affected by the epidemic.
For the photovoltaic equipment sector, Debang Securities pointed out that benefiting from the high boom of downstream production expansion + technology iteration in the photovoltaic industry in 2021, listed companies of photovoltaic equipment are expected to have a high growth rate in the first quarter. At present, the companies that publish the first quarter report or performance forecast include Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (performance year-on-year + 109%), Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (performance year-on-year + 49.8%), Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) (performance year-on-year estimate + 42.1% to 70.5%). The downstream expansion of production has brought full orders to equipment manufacturers. At the same time, the emergence of new technologies promotes the upgrading of equipment and the increase of equipment investment and gross profit margin. Considering the strong cycle certainty of the transformation of special aircraft equipment from order to income, it is recommended to pay attention to the high growth rate of 22q1 performance and the growth target of new orders exceeding the expected period.
In addition, for the lithium battery equipment sector, the agency further analyzed that in 2022q1, the cumulative production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles were 1293000 and 1257000 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year. The market penetration of new energy vehicles has reached 19.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.4pp The production expansion plan of China and battery manufacturers is continuously advancing. Benefiting from the downstream expansion of production and the continuous breakthrough of orders, the lithium battery equipment industry continues to iterate and upgrade in the front, middle and rear technical links. 4680 and other new forms also put forward new requirements for coating, liquid injection, polar lug welding, automatic assembly and other links. The pre impact of the early production expansion expenses of the lithium equipment industry has been gradually digested, and the performance elasticity will be reflected quarterly. The profit of the first quarter report is expected to continue to increase. Continue to focus on the bottom of the valuation and actively realize the high-quality target of the lithium battery equipment sector.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that at present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance in the first quarter is strong, and the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest. The demand for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) alternative fossil energy is increasing, so it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; Affected by the supply chain problems, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen in the short term, and the valuation has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in April will still have significant month on month growth, and the impact of short-term logistics will soon recover. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
one drawing summary:
