On the afternoon of April 26, the seminar on China’s macroeconomic data analysis in the first quarter of 2022 was held online by the Institute of higher studies of Shanghai University of Finance and economics. The research group of “China’s macroeconomic situation analysis and prediction” of the Institute of higher studies released the report on China’s macroeconomic situation analysis and prediction in the first quarter of 2022 with the theme of “repeated epidemic and China’s economic development under triple pressure”.
Lin Liguo, vice president and permanent associate professor of the Institute of higher studies of Shanghai University of Finance and economics, introduced the overview of the research group of “analysis and prediction of China’s macroeconomic situation”. He said that the research group has formed a large research team composed of nearly 30 doctoral graduates from top universities at home and abroad, and the research sector is divided into 14 professional fields. The research of this project is supported by the special project “modeling and Simulation of China’s economic system” of the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
Based on the quarterly analysis of “CPI, CPI and the operation of the national economy” and “CPI, the National Bureau of finance” published quarterly analysis on the operation of the national economy and the international market. The report of the research group makes a systematic analysis on the main characteristics and risk factors of China’s current economic operation, and suggests using systematic concepts and comprehensive measures to resolve the triple pressure and stabilize the macro-economic market.
The research group proposed that from the perspective of macroeconomic operation in the first quarter, the triple pressure of insufficient domestic demand on the demand side, strengthened impact on the supply side and weakened expectation of economic growth continues and has an increasing trend. At the same time, the multi-point outbreak has also derived a series of new situations and changes that need to be paid more attention to, which makes it more challenging to achieve the economic objectives and tasks put forward in the government work report. Internally, the balance sheets of market microeconomic entities in the household sector and the enterprise sector are facing the impact of the epidemic, while the weakening of house price expectation superimposes the spread of the epidemic, the weakening of residents’ willingness to lend, and the development of the real estate market is also facing the pressure of slowdown. Externally, the growth rate of foreign trade has gradually returned to normal, but it faces more risks and uncertainties. Covid-19 epidemic and long-term trade protection restrict internal and external demand; The international political and economic environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain. Higher uncertainty will lead to the contraction of international trade activities.
For how to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic development, effectively resolve the triple pressure and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range, the research group believes that economic construction is always the central work and economic development is always the first priority. With the increasing risks and uncertainties at the international level and the pressure on the growth of external demand, stabilizing China’s macro-economic market requires the stable growth of China’s demand, which first needs to stabilize and keep the microeconomic main body of the market. Only by consolidating the micro foundation of macro economy can we further stimulate the vitality of market players and stabilize the macro-economic market. Under the special situation of the current epidemic, it is particularly important to ensure the service of enterprises and the people’s livelihood. We should firmly stabilize the industrial chain, supply chain and capital chain, unblock the logistics and freight channels of enterprises, give full play to the role of platform enterprises in solving the contradiction between “the last kilometer” and “the last 100 meters”, and increase financial support for industries, enterprises and people affected by the epidemic.
The research group suggested that the formulation of macro policies, the introduction of regulatory measures and the implementation of reform measures should focus on “time efficiency” to avoid interference with the role of the market. In particular, we should strengthen the coordination and connection of various policies and measures with a systematic concept and comprehensive implementation of policies and measures, so as to form an overall resultant force. Policies and measures offset each other or even overlap and resonate with each other, resulting in negative effects. Specifically, we should implement more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, stimulate the enthusiasm of various micro market subjects, and promote the release of consumption demand and the improvement of investment demand; We should speed up the supply chain and industrial chain to make up for weaknesses, tackle key technologies, improve China’s resource production support capacity in key areas, and further enhance the ability to resolve supply shocks; We should deepen market-oriented reform and institutional opening-up, promote internal institutional reform with the help of external forces brought by institutional opening-up, promote development with reform, and reverse the weakening trend of expectations.
The reporter learned that at the seminar, Fang Chongyin, investment director of Shanghai Zhijun Asset Management Co., Ltd., Liang Shaolian, deputy director of the development research center of Shanghai Municipal People’s government, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of banking industry, Shen Xinfeng, assistant general manager of Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) research Institute and other guests interacted with the media on-site. The seminar was presided over by Chen Yuanyuan, assistant dean and professor of the Institute of higher research.
