Following yesterday’s sharp fall, today (April 26) A shares intend to rebound, and the trend gradually appears. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, they gradually rose in shock. Near noon, the three major stock indexes showed a wave of upward attack.
From the disk view, the engineering construction sector led the rise, and the relevant real estate stocks were also ready to move. Baijiu, medical beauty, department stores, logistics, games and other sectors also performed prominently. Some industries and concept sectors performed actively, and the local profit-making effect soared. It is worth mentioning that in the engineering construction sector, as of press time, Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shanghai Geoharbour Construction Group Co.Ltd(605598) , Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) and other price limits have been raised.
Previously, Guosheng securities mentioned that the current market is still in the bottom grinding stage and the verification period of stable growth policy. Now the market needs time to bottom. In such an environment with low profit-making effect, hold your hand and calm down, wait for further clarity of the policy, and then slowly regain confidence. It is suggested to pay attention to position control, pay attention to the infrastructure and real estate sectors related to the main line of stable growth, and the necessary consumption sector under the recovery of the post epidemic situation.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] project construction
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) mentioned that at present, the cost side is still high and the delivery is affected by the epidemic. The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is still under pressure in the short term. We continue to wait for the fundamental turning point. Considering the resumption of work after the epidemic is alleviated and the early price rise is transmitted to the terminal, we pay attention to Q2 or the turning point. In the medium term, the risks of the real estate chain are gradually released, and the room for the rise of raw material prices is limited. With the enhancement of the scale effect of high-quality leaders (national capacity and channel construction), channel reform (overweight small B or C), product structure optimization (category expansion or system integration), the endogenous growth momentum still exists, and the impact brought by upstream and downstream industrial factors may be gradually weakened. In the long run, the clearing of the consumer building materials market will be accelerated, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the competition pattern will be further optimized. Continue to recommend the leader of the first echelon of the strong HENGQIANG, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal of the second tier leader who underestimates the value.
In addition, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that they are optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure investment in 2022. In terms of companies, it is suggested to pay attention to several main lines: (1) undervalued construction central enterprises: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , with high dividend rate and real estate business valuation and repair space; Q1 order exceeds the expected China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , with more BOT assets; (2) Building transformation: Transformation of green power operation Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and transformation of chemical industry China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ; (3) High growth local state-owned enterprises: focus on Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) etc; (4) Steel structure: it is expected that the prosperity will continue to improve, such as the steel structure processing leader ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) with new breakthroughs in BIPV.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the central bank had issued 23 anti epidemic financial measures to give advanced support to real estate, urban investment and construction enterprises. In March, infrastructure continued to rise. Although the downward trend of real estate has not been reversed, the positive effects are accumulating. From the perspective of Zhengzhou, which relaxed significantly earlier, the transaction data has not been significantly reflected, and the forward-looking indicators such as the volume of views have been significantly improved. We believe that due to the impact of the epidemic and inflation, the recovery of fundamentals may be slow and tortuous, but the gradual recovery of performance growth in the next four quarters is a high probability. As a core variety in the investment chain, building materials need more attention, whether it is cyclical or growing.
theme II Baijiu
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that it is optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market.
The agency further analyzed that the first dimension of the year was Baijiu, mainly high-end and sub high-end Baijiu. Baijiu has a compensatory demand for business banquets in the future. At the same time, it is less affected by the price of raw materials and has strong demand and profit toughness. The impact of the epidemic in the off-season on Baijiu is limited. Some liquor enterprises control the volume and price in the off-season. At the same time, waist products are used as a supplement to the performance growth. The follow-up outlook is upward. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that it is recommended to actively layout: 1) optimize the layout of high-end liquor with little impact on performance / anti risk ability; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1.
[Topic 3] Logistics
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that the epidemic did not hinder the long-term logic of the sector, and continued to recommend the e-commerce express industry. Looking back at the first quarter, the unit price of e-commerce express enterprises at the head was resilient, the overall year-on-year improvement trend remained unchanged, and the stability of the industry pattern was still being verified. At present, the e-commerce express industry has entered a new development stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. The development strategy of head enterprises has also changed from cost differentiation to income differentiation, paying more attention to the balance of service quality, operating profit and market share. The closure and control of the epidemic only affects the rhythm of the growth of express business volume, and does not change the trend of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the whole industry under pattern optimization. In the new development stage, the profit elasticity of price contribution is much greater than the impact of business volume changes. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the gradual repair of cash flow and the continuous improvement of profitability in the e-commerce express industry under the support of the improved pattern.
In addition, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that at present, China’s cold chain logistics industry is still in a period of rapid development. Compared with overseas developed countries, China’s cold chain industry has low concentration and low degree of standardization. At present, the competition among the top 100 enterprises is relatively fierce, and each enterprise has entered a period of rising capital investment.
Looking forward to the future, the demand for food supply chain and medical logistics is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the improvement of temperature control technology and the improvement of industry standards also drive the development of cold chain logistics industry into a new stage, and the growth potential of the industry is still large. In terms of subject matter, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) which has laid out the cold chain industry earlier and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) which are expanding diversified business are recommended, with emphasis on JD logistics and Zhongtong express of Hong Kong stocks.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that when the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the prosperity of the aviation market will rise, the company’s aviation network is relatively high-quality, and its profitability is expected to accelerate the repair. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China is still continuing, and the aviation department will reproduce large losses in the first quarter; At the same time, vaccines and covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system and help production and life return to normal. After the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the airport operation of AVIC will be significantly improved and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that in the short term, the demand for centralized transportation is still strong, and the freight rate is under pressure in stages under the background of China’s epidemic. After the overseas epidemic was effectively controlled in the later stage, the supply chain gradually returned to normal, and the current extremely high freight rate level may be difficult to maintain. With the gradual relief of the epidemic in China, there is room for repair and replenishment of freight rates in the centralized transportation market. It is suggested to pay attention to foreign trade centralized transportation Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Asian regional centralized transportation Haifeng International.
[theme 4] Games
Wanlian Securities pointed out that it should comply with the strict regulatory environment of the policy, promote industrial reform, and grasp the innovation needs brought by the post epidemic era and Z era. 1) Game: the epidemic dividend has faded. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks in the product line that are developed for the new generation of users, have well-known IP, have high expectations and good test feedback; At the same time, driven by the concept of “meta universe”, it is expected that the ecological construction of VR content will become the focus of the market in 2022; 2) Film and television cinemas: focus on leading cinemas and individual stocks; 3) Film and television series: diversified theatres and mini dramas will be the focus of the development of the video industry. It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with strong content IP commercialization ability; 4) Advertising marketing: focus on individual stocks of ladder media.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that it would continue to recommend games and repair the epidemic situation. 1) games: the version number will be restored and the policy will be warmed up. In the future, with the launch of new products, the performance can be repaired. At present, the valuation of the sector is cost-effective, and the sea is expected to provide new growth momentum in the medium and long term. 2) With the improvement of the national epidemic situation, the expectation of resumption of work and production is improved, and marketing and offline entertainment are expected to gradually recover. At present, the valuations of relevant companies are at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to marketing companies.
