Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
open source Securities: the food and beverage industry is bottoming out focus on consumer recovery
The industry is bottoming out and paying attention to the recovery of consumption. We are optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market.
The Baijiu sector was the first in the year, with high-end and sub high-end Baijiu as the main sector. Baijiu has a compensatory demand for business banquets in the future. At the same time, it is less affected by the price of raw materials and has strong demand and profit toughness. The impact of the epidemic in the off-season on Baijiu is limited. Some liquor enterprises control the volume and price in the off-season. At the same time, waist products are used as a supplement to the performance growth. The follow-up outlook is upward. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : after the epidemic! Consumption will usher in restoration focus on transportation, retail, social service and other industries
Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, but the inflection point may have been gradual. Recently, China has been disturbed by the epidemic again. Under the current strict epidemic prevention measures, the inflection point may not be far away. From the long-term trend, on the one hand, China has a high vaccination rate and may further promote needle vaccination in the future, which can effectively reduce the proportion of infection, hospitalization, severe illness and death; On the other hand, China has introduced Pfizer small molecule drugs, and China’s self-developed drugs are also continuously promoted.
If the epidemic pressure weakens in the future, the recovery of offline consumption will also accelerate. In addition, there may be more supportive policies for consumption in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to transportation (Airport), retail, social service and other industries.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the retail sector generally did not return to the level in 2019. Among the sub sectors, the Department Store sector was the most affected. In the future, with the weakening impact of the epidemic and the recovery of passenger flow, it is expected that the revenue and profit of department stores will gradually improve month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate will no longer be affected by the change of accounting standards.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual recovery of the epidemic and the improvement of offline passenger flow, the performance of the Department Store sector will gradually improve month on month. In view of the high elasticity of consumer demand: 1) optional goods; 2) The dividend yield of some department store stocks is high; 3) Some department store stocks have high self owned property value. With the gradual improvement of offline consumption, we recommend Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) and Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , the national Department Store Leader Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , the Shanghai Department Store Leader Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , and the high dividend rate Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) .
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the market probability of this round of “post epidemic repair” will not be absent pay attention to the consumption recovery opportunity of “epidemic damage chain”
Since the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, after each round of China’s epidemic spread to effective control, there have been periodic increases and excess returns in the “epidemic damaged chain”, and the market probability of this round of “post epidemic repair” will not be absent. Compared with several rounds of Chinese epidemic impact in history, 2022 has been the most severe level since March 2020. The epidemic impact is deeper, the clearance on the supply side is deeper, the supply chain is gradually restored from suspension, the steady growth of real estate is expected to exert force, and the subsequent prevention and control radius is gradually reduced. It is recommended to pay attention to the consumption recovery opportunities of “epidemic damaged chain”, and recommend the allocation of social services (Tourism and scenic spots) / retail (general retail and Internet e-commerce) benefiting from the reduction of epidemic prevention radius And optional consumption of real estate to-C chain, such as household appliances (kitchen and bathroom appliances).
Food and beverage: the epidemic has affected popular products and Baijiu to varying degrees, and the valuation of the post epidemic sector will be repaired. Popular food and catering channels are blocked. We look forward to the recovery after the epidemic. We mainly recommend condiments and quick-frozen food. Baijiu is the first to promote regional sub high-end, followed by high-end.
Business and service industry: the deterministic benefit sector of post epidemic recovery. Catering – same store sales are expected to rebound rapidly and have great profit elasticity; The operation and repair ability of the hotel head group is remarkable, and the expansion against the trend accelerates the chain; Tax exemption – the epidemic has repeatedly dragged down performance, and the leader has been growing steadily for a long time; Tourism – give priority to the restoration of domestic tourism, and pay attention to companies with extension and expansion ability; E-commerce: synchronized with the economic cycle, it is still a more efficient retail format; Beauty / Jewelry: look for strong mental brands that can cross the cycle.
Household appliances: the epidemic interrupted and slowly recovered in March, and retail sales are expected to improve after the epidemic. White power: the policies to promote consumption have been implemented one after another, and the profit of the leading terminal price increase is being repaired; Small household appliances: periodic demand overdraft, emerging tracks pay attention to intelligent micro investment; Kitchen electricity: the real estate policy is expected to be relaxed marginally, and the integrated kitchen view has a good bearing.
Automobile industry: the road is tortuous and the future is bright. Before the current round of epidemic fermentation, the boom recovery of the automobile industry in the past 22 years was not a big problem; As for the impact of the epidemic, the impact of commercial vehicles is greater than that of passenger vehicles. The pressure test for resumption of production and work should be carried out, and the companies that are undervalued according to the bottom of the industry should be actively adjusted to deal with the impact of the epidemic, which has a better safety margin and cost performance of investment.
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) : gradually welcome “big consumption” to buy points! At present, it has entered the comfort zone of cost performance, odds and winning ratio
Looking forward to the next 1-2 quarters, the market is getting better and better. Cherish the “cheap time” in the current bottom area, and A-Shares are expected to meet the counter offensive moment of “Normandy landing” and “infinite scenery in dangerous peaks”.
In terms of investment suggestions, we have gradually welcomed the “big consumption” buying points, and now we have entered the comfort zone of cost performance, odds and winning rate. We can pay attention to three levels of big consumption: ① post real estate cycle (home appliances, household appliances, and consumer building materials), ② service consumption (social services, airports, medical services, and media games), and ③ traditional consumer goods (mass consumer goods, Baijiu, pigs, etc.).
For a long time, the buying point to gradually meet large consumption is a more comfortable and appropriate time point for cost performance, odds and winning rate. However, the process of gradually and slowly adding the consumption sector is not smooth. We should match it slowly and buy it slowly. We are not in a hurry to buy it at one go, because the epidemic situation is repeated, data verification and other disturbances exist, and the process is twists and turns. We should fight a “guerrilla war” and turn a small victory into a big victory.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: consumer sector is expected to see marginal improvement under favorable policies faucet still has long-term allocation value
The general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, mainly involving basic food, catering, retail, tourism, duty-free, automobile, household appliances and other industries.
The State Council Office issued a series of supporting measures to promote consumption, which will help alleviate the operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises, help them tide over difficulties, restore development and boost the overall market confidence. Since the covid-19 epidemic occurred in 2020, catering, retail, tourism and other aggregated contact industries have been hardest hit. They are generally faced with prominent problems such as shrinking consumer market, rising operating costs, rising labor rents, increasing epidemic prevention expenses, difficult and expensive financing. It is urgent to formulate and introduce more targeted and stronger policies and measures. The general office of the State Council issued a series of relief and support measures such as tax cuts and fee reductions in difficult industries and financial support, which aims to support the development of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, help them tide over difficulties, boost market confidence, and lay a solid foundation for stable economic development and progress in the first quarter and even the whole year.
We believe that short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term good pattern of the economy. Under the favorable policies, the consumer sector is expected to usher in a marginal improvement, and the leading enterprises still have long-term allocation value. The consumption promotion policy of the general office of the State Council is biased towards the programmatic document. In the future, there will be more large-scale tax and fee reduction and relief measures waiting for specific implementation, so as to help market players burst out greater development vitality and give better play to the driving role of consumption on economic growth. From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, China will continue to adhere to dynamic zeroing, strictly prevent overseas input, speed up vaccination and multi vaccine research and development, and achieve mass immunization as soon as possible. The consumer market in the “post epidemic era” is expected to usher in a marginal improvement. The consumer sector previously impacted by the epidemic is at the starting point of the general trend of recovery, and the fundamentals of relevant leading enterprises usher in repair opportunities, It will show a brighter performance under the resonance of the dual factors of the recovery of industry prosperity and the improvement of market penetration. Recently, the stock prices of leading consumer enterprises have been relatively strong, and the inflow of Chinese institutions and overseas funds has accelerated, reflecting the market’s optimistic outlook for the future.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : cosmetics medical and beauty industry in the second quarter or borrow 618 greatly promote demand replenishment and stock up effect
Under the current valuation level, some retail companies have highlighted the better safety margin and steady dividend. We select the core indicators from the dimensions of valuation level, revaluation value, cash flow, dividend rate and dividend rate for analysis: some retail companies have shown the characteristics of high dividend return, high asset value, healthy statements and steady profits, and have a better valuation safety margin. Those with good comprehensive performance include: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Wuhan Department Store Group Co.Ltd(000501) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , etc.
Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that considering the gradual stabilization of the epidemic in some regions and the orderly resumption of work and production of some enterprises, supermarkets are still of defensive configuration value in the second quarter.
(1) cosmetic medical beauty: it is expected that 618 will promote the compensatory effect after the epidemic. In the second half of 2020, as the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the growth rate of cosmetics rebounded significantly, with a monthly growth rate of 9% – 32% above the quota from July to December. Recently, affected by the epidemic, offline consumption in some regions has stagnated and online express delivery has been blocked. We expect that the cosmetics medical and beauty industry may borrow 618 in the second quarter to promote demand replenishment and hoarding effect, driving high performance growth.
(2) supermarket: it has annual defensive configuration value. At present, the epidemic prevention and control department is in a critical period. As a key guarantee and supply enterprise, supermarkets are expected to have strong support on their short-term income side, benefit from competition, improve the consumption environment and optimize their operation in the medium term; Considering that the market has fluctuated greatly since the beginning of the year and the consumption environment is weak, the defense value of the supermarket is strong throughout the year, and the performance is expected to remain stable on a low base in the second half of the year.
Core recommendation: A-share: A-share: A-share, with the ‘ Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co.Ltd(600415) , DEA shares; H shares, recommend meituan, Jingdong group and hailun company, and pay attention to the tea of Alibaba and Naixue.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : look forward to the recovery of optional consumption and travel after the epidemic improves
In March, China’s online retail sales of physical goods were + 2.7% year-on-year and offline retail sales were – 5.5% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of online and offline goods slowed down by 9.6pct/10.5pct respectively from January to February, both of which were seriously impacted. In offline consumption, the catering industry is more affected. In March 2022, the catering revenue was – 16.4% year-on-year. Residents reduced dining out and chose to buy more ingredients to cook at home.
The consumption of grain, oil, food, medicine and other necessities shows resilience. Due to the increase in demand for cooking at home and residents’ demand for goods during the epidemic, grain, oil and food still maintained a high growth rate in March. As varieties with high consumption frequency and rigid demand, grain, oil, food and drugs have always been relatively resilient. They also maintained a high growth rate during the rebound of the epidemic in the second half of 2021.
Consumer demand for daily necessities was delayed. The purchase frequency of daily necessities of residents is significantly lower than that of food. During the epidemic period, the household reserves are generally consumed. From November to December 2021, after the epidemic improves, residents will gradually start to supplement the reserves of daily necessities. In 2022, if the national epidemic can be basically controlled before June, the demand for daily necessities is expected to be released in the middle of the shopping season.
Cosmetics, jewelry, household appliances and other optional consumption are greatly affected by the epidemic, and the recovery speed after the epidemic is relatively fast. The impact of these categories is more reflected in the rhythm of consumption, especially cosmetics. From the perspective of longer time cycle (such as year or quarter), the demand toughness is good. In March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of these categories was greatly affected.
In terms of investment suggestions, we look forward to the recovery of optional consumption and travel after the epidemic improves. The epidemic has affected the consumption rhythm of some optional products, which is expected to recover rapidly after the epidemic. At present, many targets in the consumer industry are at a low valuation, which deserves special attention. Recommended target: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , medical beauty & cosmetics industry leader Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc. benefiting from travel recovery.
For the Baijiu sector, it is recommended to actively layout: 1) optimize the layout of high-end liquor that has little impact on performance / has the ability to resist risks; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1. Recommended targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , etc.
For the popular products sector, we suggest that we should continue to pay attention to the layout opportunities of rebound after the epidemic in the near future. At the current time, priority should be given to the required leading targets & optional high-quality leading with continuous improvement of profitability: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
