In the last week of April, on the first trading day, the Shanghai index fell below 3000 points under the cross influence of internal and external uncertainties. Today, the main indexes continued to fluctuate. Compared with the cold market, the main line of large consumption is stronger today, especially the concept stocks of duty-free stores are stronger against the market today, Guangzhou Grandbuy Co.Ltd(002187) , Zhongbai Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000759) , Nanning Department Store Co.Ltd(600712) , Fujian Dongbai (Group) Co.Ltd(600693) closed the daily limit, Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , China free group, etc.
In terms of news, yesterday, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, which proposed to promote the healthy and sustainable development of consumption platforms. Accelerate the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities. It also mentioned the need to improve the policy of duty-free shops in the city and plan to build a number of duty-free shops in the city with Chinese characteristics Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that they tend to think that this is the continuation of the policy after the national Standing Committee deployed and improved the policies related to the import and export of consumer goods on April 28, 2015 and actively attracted the return of consumption City duty-free shops are the key point for China’s tax-free policy to open to the Chinese people and really play a role in attracting the return of consumption
Since the beginning of this year, with the rise of market concerns about a series of issues such as tightening of overseas monetary policy and rising inflation pressure in China, the requirements for the matching degree between valuation and profit have become more and more stringent. Track stocks have “stalled”, and only the news is not enough to support the catalytic effect on the disk deeper logic is the support of the performance of tax-free concept stocks and the expectation of less affected by the epidemic and rapid recovery of the industry
After the issuance of the opinions of the State Council office, the agency believes that in the post epidemic era, the follow-up policies will emphasize the two directions of unblocking logistics and stimulating consumption. It is expected that the fiscal policy will make further efforts to increase the proportion of residents’ income distribution in a more sustainable way, so as to more directly stimulate residents’ consumption of goods and services and restore a virtuous cycle of supply and demand.
from within the consumption sector, the recovery elasticity of optional consumption is often large Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) the view is that the recent epidemic situation in China has been repeated, but the inflection point may have been gradual, and the long-term repair trend of offline consumption remains. Over the past two years, consumption has been the sector most affected by the epidemic in the economic structure, but the overall balance sheet of residents has not deteriorated significantly, and there is a foundation for repair in the future. From overseas experience, although the two-year epidemic has had an impact on lifestyle, offline consumption habits will also return after the epidemic. The first sectors to benefit will be airports, retail, social services, etc.
Tax free industry, as a sub track benefiting from the above industries, has obvious opportunities: industry policies help leading enterprises actively layout, guide the return of consumption and maintain the long-term trend of high growth at present, China’s duty-free industry, especially the duty-free of Hainan outlying islands, is in an explosive period. Customs data show that in 202021 after the outbreak of the epidemic, duty-free retail sales on outlying islands recorded 27.5 billion yuan and 49.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 104% and 80%. In the first quarter of this year, under the impact of the epidemic, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands increased by 8.4% year-on-year.
In 2021, the growth rate of the leading performance of the big consumption track was generally relatively flat, while the tax-free leading China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 2021 achieved a high increase in net profit. On the evening of April 22, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) released the 2021 annual report and the 2022 first quarterly report, and realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.654 billion yuan / 2.563 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 57.23% / decrease of 9.99%. Excluding the pressure on its operation caused by the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other major tourist source cities in Hainan since March and the temporary closure of Haitang Bay International duty-free city for 4.5 days caused by the epidemic in Sanya, the long-term logic of consumption upgrading behind it is still strong. The agency stressed that tax exemption belongs to medium and high-end consumption, the depth and breadth of China’s consumption upgrading are very considerable, and there is broad space for overseas return. We are optimistic about the recovery after the epidemic subsides.
According to the announcement of listed companies, the performance of retailers’ super concept stocks with tax-free concept in 2021 with relatively mild impact of the epidemic is as follows:
With regard to the general direction of tax-free track configuration, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the operators of duty-free stores are most likely to receive support from tax-free operators and local government related enterprises with tax-free business licenses. Due to the high operating requirements of duty-free stores and the key advantages of supply chain and operation management, stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other cities with a large number of international tourists will have the most business value. However, based on the existing information, it is judged that the policy optimization of urban stores will also be based on the premise of leaving the country. Therefore, the time node of policy implementation still depends on the impact of the epidemic, and the policy effect is relatively long-term.
