“The market showed signs of stabilization after falling below 2900. According to the comprehensive evaluation, the gold pit near 2900 is this year.” After early trading on April 26, Chen Guo, managing director and chief strategy officer of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, made the latest judgment.
Chen Guo said that this year’s golden pit is near 2900. There are four specific logics: first, now is the most pessimistic moment of epidemic expectation. In fact, the epidemic prevention and control is constantly improving and should not be pessimistic. It is expected to resume work soon, which is expected to become an important clue in the market.
Second, now is the moment when the gap between economic and policy expectations is the largest. 2900 points reflect the market’s pessimism about the economy, but in fact, the logic of steady growth has not been destroyed, but is increasing. Generally speaking, I don’t think that this year’s economic growth target will be significantly lowered. On the contrary, the economic situation in the second quarter will make a new round of steady growth policies launched faster and more vigorously.
Third, the most pessimistic stage of global inflation expectations is over. The biggest source restricting the valuation environment of the A-share market this year comes from overseas inflation expectations. However, with the recent rapid correction of the real interest rate of US bonds, under the background of the unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price has peaked and dropped, the implied medium-term inflation expectation of us tips has also peaked, and the core inflation data of the United States has begun to have low expectations. It can be basically judged that the most pessimistic stage of global inflation expectation is over.
Fourth, in the coming quarter, the improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event, although the process is likely to be repeated.
In terms of allocation, Chen Guo believes that the strategy can no longer be pessimistic, but should gradually turn to optimism. Tactically, it can be arranged at low positions, with about 2900 as this year’s golden pit.
“Among them, priority can be given to post epidemic repair + steady growth overweight, including food and beverage, social services, real estate chain, infrastructure chain, etc. when the market recovers and the external liquidity environment is further improved, the opportunity for growth stocks to fight back can be grasped.” Chen Guo further pointed out.
On April 26, after the three major A-share indexes collectively opened higher, they showed a trend of rapid shock. Among them, the Shanghai index once fell below the 2900 point mark. However, with the sharp rebound of Baijiu and cro sectors, the two cities turned red again, and the growth enterprise market index rose by more than 2.2%.
As of midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.94% to 295593 points; The Kechuang 50 index rose 1.32% to 896 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.31% to 1051508 points; The gem index rose 1.96% to 221147.
On the disk, statistics show that 2621 stocks in the two cities rose
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