Shanghai stock index fell below 3000 points, how to go in the future?
On April 26, the three major indexes opened higher, and the Shanghai index rebounded from the bottom in the morning. The record index stood back to 2200 points, and the increase was once expanded to 2%. In the afternoon, the two cities fluctuated lower, the collective turned green, and the Shanghai index fell back to 2900 points again. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 1.44%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.66% and the gem index fell 0.85%.
Why did the market fall below 3000 points? Which sectors are worth looking forward to in the future? Huaxia Fund, Boshi fund, Qianhai open source fund, ChuangJin Hexin fund, Nord fund, noan fund, Haifutong fund, Tongtai fund, Hang Seng Qianhai fund, Zhongke fertile soil fund and other ten funds quickly gave the latest interpretation.
lower market risk appetite
At present, the operating environment of A-Shares is relatively complex and short-term uncertainties continue to disturb, Huaxia Fund believes that internally, the epidemic is still in the process of trying to control, and the risks emanating from multiple points cause concern. At the same time, the downward pressure on economic fundamentals is obvious in stages; From the periphery, the expected process of us tightening is accelerated, US bond yields continue to rise, and the short-term decline of RMB exchange rate also puts pressure on the market. In the fluctuation process dominated by emotion, the index will inevitably overshoot, and the process of market decline itself is also the process of risk release.
A shares fell again, Boshi Fund believes that mainly due to the following reasons: first, affected by the Fed’s expectation of increasing interest rate, US stocks fell sharply last Friday, and the depressed mood spread to a shares; Secondly, the epidemic rebounded in many places across the country, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, which lasted for a long time, suppressed production, logistics and consumption, worried about the repair of the economy, and further reduced risk appetite.
Qianhai open source Fund believes that the reason comes from the joint force of making up for the decline in China’s epidemic that is continuously higher than expected and the tightening of overseas Federal Reserve. 1) Previously, the market has always regarded the rebound of China’s epidemic as a relatively short-term disturbance. However, recently, China’s epidemic has begun to show a multi-point outbreak and spread trend, aggravating the market’s concerns about the strengthening of epidemic closure and control, enterprise shutdown and supply chain congestion. 2) The epidemic has increased the pressure of economic downturn and deterioration of enterprise fundamentals, and the first quarterly report has failed in a large area. 3) The pressure of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and foreign capital outflow continued to intensify, which also dragged down the global market volatility.
Hang Seng Qianhai equity investment director Qi Teng believes that has mainly caused the recent market decline: 1. The performance of growth stocks is lower than expected, causing the market to accelerate the selling; 2. The sharp depreciation of RMB has exacerbated market panic; 3. The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and the transmission of the sharp decline in US stocks.
Xu Wei, fund manager of Zhongke fertile soil fund, believes that since last week, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen rapidly by about 1800 basis points, and the market’s concerns about weak exports and capital outflow have increased; At the same time, the service industry, transportation industry and some manufacturing industries are greatly affected by the epidemic, and the market’s concerns about macroeconomic performance are also increasing.
public funds how to see the future market
Facing multiple short-term pressures, how to go in the future? From the perspective of public funds, there are differences.
some public funds believe that the market sentiment is freezing. Without effective incremental capital entering the market and positive policy stimulus, A-Shares will continue to shake and find the bottom. Others believe that some short-term negative factors will gradually dissipate, are optimistic about the positive performance of the market outlook, and believe that opportunities and risks will coexist
Ma Junsheng, general manager of Tongtai fund, said in an interview with the Chinese reporter of the securities firm, Shanghai stock index fell below 3000 points mainly due to the excessive venting of investors’ pessimism, because no matter from which perspective, the current sharp decline in the market is irrational, and the market will soon correct its deviation. He also said that the current market is extremely pessimistic, hasty and insensitive, which is also selective numbness to the good. At this time, it often breeds investment opportunities, which means that the market has reached the bottom. For example, recently, the national standing committee, the financial stability Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission have made intensive voices, and there is room and means to ensure the stable growth of GDP. A series of favorable policies are being introduced. Ma Junsheng believes that there is no need to worry too much about the future trend of the market. Historically, there is a great opportunity to lengthen the time and enter the market when the market falls below 3000 points. For investors, the most important thing is to strengthen confidence.
Boshi Fund believes that the transaction volume of market is gradually shrinking, the sentiment is close to the freezing point, and the attitude of capital wait-and-see is obvious. In the short term, the sentiment of investors will still be suppressed by these factors when there are still uncertain factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike and the Chinese epidemic. In the absence of effective incremental funds, the upward momentum of A-Shares is insufficient, and the bottom will continue to be shaken.
After the sharp decline in the early stage, Huaxia Fund believes that the inherent risks of A-Shares have been fully released, and the pessimistic expectation has been reflected in the stock price to a great extent. Suppressed by multiple factors, although the index is difficult to reverse in the short term, it is not suitable to be overly pessimistic at the current time point. The bottom of the market policy has been very clear, but it takes time to confirm the transition to the bottom of the market.
Qianhai open source Fund believes that in the second quarter of under the covid-19 epidemic, the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction, the rise of US bond interest rates, US stock fluctuations, Russia Ukraine conflict and other internal and external uncertainties, the market probability will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. However, as the market continues to go deep into the bottom, the follow-up will shift from more systematic adjustment to structural differentiation.
. The high cost and the disturbance of the epidemic have become the suppressive factors of profits. In terms of liquidity, as we have previously analyzed, monetary policy is facing constraints, and excess easing is difficult to expect. At the same time, the stock funds are also facing the outflow pressure of absolute return, the departure of two financing funds and the closing of stock pledge positions, which means that the market is still under pressure in the short term.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, is optimistic about the impact of the epidemic on the economy. He believes that is similar to 2020. With the peak of infection data, the economy is gradually unsealed, and the stock market is expected to stabilize at the same time. At this stage, investors are advised to be patient and optimistic.
In the process of market bottom grinding, Hang Seng Qianhai equity investment director Qi Teng believes that investors should not blindly sell down. Based on the long-term good trend of China and the outstanding advantages of current investment cost performance, investors are advised not to be overly panic and pessimistic, maintain confidence, rationally choose industries with long-term growth logic, pay attention to high-quality companies with strong performance growth, and patiently bargain hunting layout, Long term holding.
Overall, noan Fund believes that current market downturn has fully reflected investors’ extremely pessimistic expectations for future economic growth. The process of market bottoming caused by multiple pessimistic expectations may continue to repeat. However, in the medium and long term, the policy of stable growth in the future will make greater efforts to promote the recovery of the real economy, and there is still a repair market in the medium and long term. At present, we should pay close attention to the changes in the situation outside China and the trends of policies related to steady growth.
Xu Wei, fund manager of Zhongke fertile soil Fund holds a relatively positive attitude towards the better control of the epidemic in the second quarter. Although the epidemic in Beijing, Hangzhou and other places has increased recently, it can be seen that local governments have responded to the epidemic more quickly and decisively, and the number of new positive cases in Shanghai has also decreased from the peak. At the same time, major ministries and commissions continue to issue policies to stabilize investment and finance, The policy underpinning is expected to continue to strengthen. Therefore, we judge that it is less likely that the market will continue to fall sharply in the short term
future market needs to pay close attention to these two directions
since the beginning of this year, both in China and abroad, the variables in the financial market have increased, and the impact on the stock market has been one after another. Whether at present or in the future, investors still need to pay close attention to the changes in the situation outside China and the trends of policies related to steady growth
Boshi Fund believes that comprehensive RRR reduction has been officially implemented, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, and the overall capital is relatively abundant; At the policy level, the determination and intention of macro policy to serve “steady growth” remain unchanged under the background of intensive voice of multiple ministries and commissions to boost market confidence. After the early correction, in the medium and long term, the opportunities of A-Shares will be greater than the risks, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance. After the early correction, the medium and long-term configuration value of some industries is further revealed, which can be paid appropriate attention, such as the upstream sector of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, etc.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, believes that in the sector, the current systematic decline is a significant decline in almost all industries. But the subsequent rebound, we think it may be divided. In the early stage, the sectors that are suppressed by the epidemic may have excess returns. For example, with the unsealing of logistics control, the transportation sector may have a relatively large reversal. With the recovery of business, retail, tourism, hotels, aviation and other sectors are also expected to usher in a greater recovery. Optional consumer goods, such as Baijiu, household appliances, consumer building materials, etc., all depend on normal economic activities. At present, they are in a state of oversold and are expected to be systematically repaired in the future. There are also the measures for stabilizing growth that the management has always mentioned. In the follow-up, with the implementation of more policies, we believe that the construction, building materials and other sectors with partial periodicity are also expected to benefit.
Hu Yaowen of Haifutong Fund believes that the main contradiction of a-share market is the impact of the epidemic development on the economy and there is some uncertainty in the short term of steady growth. Follow up will be closely followed: (1) changes in the improvement of the epidemic situation, that is, the emergence of reasonable expectations for the resumption of labor and the resumption of work time; (2) Further implementation of the steady growth policy in essence. Looking back on the past, each crisis event will be accompanied by the acceleration and overweight of relevant policies. In the future, the prevention and control policies will keep pace with the times, the attractiveness and resilience of China’s economy remain, the determination of steady growth policy is unwavering, and there may be an increase in the future. From a medium and long-term perspective, the current market valuation is close to the level at the end of 2018. The return of valuation contains investment opportunities. In the face of market fluctuations, we should base ourselves on the long-term and calmly deal with them.
