After the baptism of various policy regulation in 2021, Shenzhen property market becomes more rational at the beginning of 2022.
On January 2, Allianz Shangjing house, located in Guangming New Area of Shenzhen, launched 353 houses, with only 15 batches of customers registered. On average, each batch of customers can choose 24 suites, which is significantly different from the hot sales of new houses in the previous year.
According to the public information of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, a total of 56930 first-hand houses were approved for pre-sale in Shenzhen in 2021, with a final transaction of 52417, an increase of 15.5% year-on-year in 2020, a new high in recent five years. Among them, only in November and December, 44 new residential sites entered the market, accounting for 35% of the new sites launched in the whole year. The projects are all over all districts of Shenzhen.
According to the analysis of insiders, the increase of new house trading volume in Shenzhen in 2021 is mainly due to the increase of supply and the suppression of the guiding price of second-hand houses, “in fact, it does not have market persuasion.” In addition, since the second half of 2021, Shenzhen developers have actively promoted the offer. At the same time, they have also changed the pattern of price reduction and promotion, or discounts, or buying houses and cars, and even the discount of “buying large houses and sending small ones”, which has indeed promoted the de commercialization of some buildings.
In addition, according to the latest data released by Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources, as of December 31, 2021, there are 537 existing residential projects in Shenzhen, including 356 ordinary commercial residential projects. According to regional distribution, 103 projects are located in Longgang District, followed by Guangming district and Bao’an District, with 86 and 84 projects respectively. The total area of residential land in stock is 1017 hectares, the area of land not under construction is 269.84 hectares, and the area of land under construction is 747.16 hectares, including 286.17 hectares of unsold land.
In other words, there are still many choices in the current Shenzhen new housing market, and buyers are not in a hurry.
There is only one new house to be converted, and the market sentiment is cold
The property market in Shenzhen in 2022 is leaning towards the buyer’s market.
According to the statistics of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, 125 new projects were launched in Shenzhen in 2021, while the number increased to 143 in 2022, which is equivalent to an average of one new project launched less than every three days, including a large number of limited price projects. It is worth mentioning that after three centralized land supply in 2021, the new house price in Shenzhen this year and next has been limited to the maximum price at the time of local auction. This makes many projects launched or to be launched lose their price advantage.
Although it is only 11 days since 2022, the new housing market in Shenzhen has entered a “freezing period”.
According to the official website of Shenzhen planning and Land Commission, as of January 10, only one suite source of Allianz Shangjing mansion, which has been opened for 10 days, is in the “signed purchase letter” status, and the other more than 300 suites are in the “future house for sale” status, with a removal rate of only 0.28%. Another Yujing Washington in Longhua District opened on January 6. The 533 houses sold by the project attracted only 108 batches of customers to subscribe. It is rumored that only 6 people signed the subscription letter on the same day.
According to the official information of times finance, Allianz Shangjing mansion and Yujing Washington mansion are aimed at just needed customers in terms of price and house type, but their traffic injuries are the main reason to persuade buyers to retreat.
Among them, Allianz Shangjing house, located in Guangming District, has an average filing price of 51900 yuan / m2, and launched two house types of 89 m2 and 111 m2, 1.2km away from the nearest Loucun station of Metro Line 6, with a walking time of 18 minutes. The average price of Yujing Washington is about 52000 yuan / square meter, mainly promoting the house type of 67-112 square meters. Although it is located in Guanlan Gaoxin Park, Longhua District, it is 3.6km away from the nearest Zhucun station of Metro Line 4, which directly discourages just in need buyers who pay more attention to transportation.
Liang Kai, an intermediary, told times finance that at present, interested buyers are not in a hurry to buy a house, and everyone maintains a wait-and-see attitude.
“There are too many choices, and it is only January now. It is reasonable to say that the new year has not begun, and no one knows what the future (market) trend will be. However, it is certain that the current buyers are very rational, and everyone will put personal needs first.” Liang Kai also said that the buyers who consulted him now consider living by themselves. The convenience of transportation directly affects their evaluation of the project, and the supporting facilities and investment value are also the factors that determine whether they start or not.
According to the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, the residential projects that have recently obtained the pre-sale certificate also include Zhuoyi mansion, xinghetiandi phase V, jiazhaoye yunwang mansion, Futong Jiuyao residence, etc. Among them, Xinghe Tiandi phase V launched 248 houses, with an average price of about 51900 yuan / m2. The project has always been synonymous with the “net red market” in Guangming district. The opening of previous phases ended with “sunshine”, but according to the current market reaction, it may be difficult to achieve the previous results.
List of recently approved pre-sale projects in Shenzhen, source: Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development
Another project of concern is yunwang mansion of jiazhaoye, located in Longgang District. This is also the first residential project launched by jiazhaoye group this year after the liquidity incident. The unit price is about 57000-68000 yuan / square meter, and 130 houses with an area of 95-120 square meters are launched.
An insider close to jiazhaoye group told times finance, “through the small program \’home purchase good\’ to register first, you can get a discount of 60000 yuan per house. There will be other discounts on the opening day, but it hasn\’t come out yet.” It is reported that “real estate Jia” is a mobile marketing platform launched by jiazhaoye group, which is applicable to all listings launched by jiazhaoye group.
Buyers: Thunder Housing enterprises do not consider, giving priority to the projects of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises
Only 11 days into 2022, 6 residential projects in Shenzhen are planned to enter the market, with a total of 2184 houses. However, from the de commercialization of projects that have been opened, Shenzhen’s new housing market may face major twists and turns this year.
A market analyst said that a large number of new projects will enter the market this year, many of which belong to the relationship of competitive products. Once a project has many surrounding competitive products, no price advantages, and no prominent products and lots, it will be “abandoned” by the market, and it is difficult for buyers to buy such projects.
Taking Allianz Shangjing mansion as an example, the project is the first project of Anhui Allianz Expressway Co., Ltd. to enter the Shenzhen market. There are also residential projects such as Jinmao Park, Yuefu garden and Vanke light year four seasons around. There is no great difference in prices and supporting facilities between buildings. In addition, there is only Metro Line 6 in Guangming district, As a result, projects slightly away from the subway are not considered by most home buyers.
Facing the new housing market in Shenzhen, which is not in high mood at present, song Ding, deputy director of China urban economic expert committee, analyzed that the second-hand housing market once declined due to the great impact of policies in 2021, which tilted some second-hand tenants to the new housing market; Secondly, in the second half of last year, Shenzhen increased housing supply and solved part of the market demand at that time. “However, at the end of the year, the contradiction between developers and owners increased, and there were more rights protection events, which made the whole market trend not very optimistic. At present, most house buyers maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that such market sentiment may continue until the second quarter of this year.
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Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, also told times finance and economics that at present, some projects to be sold in Shenzhen are facing some weaknesses or disadvantages. In the face of the picky choice of home buyers, if the project is slightly remote and the price is slightly higher than the surrounding projects, it will be easier to face the problems of difficult sales and great pressure on decentralization.
However, compared with the location and price of the project, the buyer Peng Jieyi said that she was more concerned about the operation of the developer. She was just qualified to buy a house this year and was currently making a house viewing plan. Jiazhaoye yunwang house, located in Bantian, Longgang, was not in her consideration.
Last November, jiazhaoye group had capital liquidity problems, which led to bond default, which is still in turmoil. As the first project to enter the market after the storm, jiazhaoye yunwang house was held high expectations and attracted many “onlookers”. A person close to jiazhaoye group said: “jiazhaoye is like this. It’s not surprising even if the project doesn\’t sell well.”
“I\’m more worried about buying such (thunder) developers\’ houses. What if they fail?” Peng Jieyi admitted that she had seen a lot of news about the uncompleted project caused by the developer’s thunder. If she also bought such a house, “her whole life’s efforts have been in vain.”
Peng Jieyi told times finance and economics that next, priority will be given to the projects launched by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Individuals do not have high requirements for the location of real estate and pay more attention to the practicability of house type. “I want to buy a house type with three rooms and two bathrooms, with a budget of 70000 yuan / square meter.”
In the face of the current negative new housing market, developers still continue to launch new projects. On the one hand, or considering the sales pressure faced by real estate enterprises, on the other hand, it is also a test and exploration of the real estate market in Shenzhen in 2022.
