The sector of new energy vehicles with outstanding performance in 2021 suddenly “stalled” in 2022, and most concept stocks fell significantly, reflecting market concerns after the decline of new energy subsidy policy to a certain extent; In addition, the profit pouring out from the previous large increase was also one of the falling factors
Byd Company Limited(002594) recent trend according to wind information
However, the emergence of new benefits will bring greater pull to the new energy vehicle industry and hedge the impact of the decline of subsidies. Some analysts pointed out that although there was an obvious correction in the sector, the industry’s positive trend has not changed. After the return of valuation, the new energy vehicle sector gradually emerged better allocation points
the impact of slope retreat is small
On the news side, the passenger Federation recently released national passenger car market analysis report in December 2021.
The report points out that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive . According to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, which will realize the subsidy throughout 2022.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passengers, said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space. The subsidy amount has at least significantly increased the scale of more than 10 billion , which has an extremely obvious pulling effect on the car market .
The reporter of financial investment daily noted that in the past few years, new energy vehicles were mainly driven by policies, and the penetration rate increased steadily. However, from the perspective of 2021, the industry driven model is gradually inclined to market driven, more and more high-quality new energy vehicles are listed, and the word-of-mouth sales have a good harvest.
The auto industry person interviewed by the reporter said: ” the subsidy for new energy vehicles this year will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. Although the cost will be passed on to consumers, the decline will have less impact with the increase of acceptance. At the same time, if the new deal cancels the upper limit, more consumers will enjoy terminal subsidies. From a market perspective, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further accelerate. Overall, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to grow at a high speed, with obvious traces of market pull. Behind the gradual farewell to policy promotion, the decline of subsidies is not expected to have a significant impact. It is expected that new energy vehicles will maintain a high-speed growth trend in 2022. “
From the data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to November in 2021 reached 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. In November, the market penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%. New energy vehicles have entered a new stage of explosive growth, and have changed from policy driven to market driven, creating a favorable environment for the orderly decline of subsidy policies.
According to the current market expectation, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will still increase significantly in 2022. Some brokerage analysts predict that in 2022, with the alleviation of the problem of core shortage, the backlog demand due to core shortage will be released, the total sales volume of passenger cars will also increase, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be between 4.5-5 million. The forecast of the passenger Federation is more optimistic. The passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022
overestimate stress relief
From the secondary market, affected by the good news, the concept stocks of new energy vehicles rebounded collectively, and the plate rose ahead. But before that, new energy vehicle sector suffered a big correction, and some stocks fell by more than 20% or even 30%.
In the view of insiders, the correction of new energy vehicles is affected by multiple factors, including the normal profit taking brought by the excessive increase of in the early stage and the decline of subsidies . However, in the medium and long term, the short-term trend is more affected by the news, and the high prosperity state of the industrial chain has not changed.
With the rapid correction of relevant stocks to resolve the overestimation pressure, this round of correction gives investors a better layout opportunity .
for the new energy vehicle sector, the optimistic view in the industry has not changed.
2021 is the first year for the release and sales of new energy models of joint venture and foreign-funded automobile enterprises. Represented by Tesla, mainstream foreign-funded automobile enterprises have released new models with product power. The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is expected to not only become an important support for China’s sales, but also stimulate the catfish effect and stimulate independent automobile enterprises to launch competitive products, It is expected to establish consumers’ brand awareness and consumption habits of new energy vehicles and accelerate the process of electrification.
Today, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, opportunities in various segments of the industrial chain are highlighted, and the leaders will take the lead in benefiting.
Due to the different time points of major automobile enterprises, the head concentration of new energy vehicles is higher in terms of industry attributes.
Wang Jing, an analyst at Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , believes that in terms of competition pattern, China’s independent brands are comprehensively ahead of joint venture car enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) is expected to benefit as an independent leader. Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly in the second half of 2021, the power battery business gradually began to be supplied externally, the orders were placed and the battery revenue will continue to improve.
On the whole, Byd Company Limited(002594) is in the early stage of development of the new energy vehicle industry, and there is a huge space for the future. As an independent leading enterprise of new energy vehicles, the company has developed and produced “three electricity and one core” by itself. On the whole vehicle, the product cycle has been ushered in since the second half of 2020, and the company’s performance is expected to exceed expectations in the future.
lithium battery is undoubtedly an important link in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
In the field of lithium batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has maintained the first position in the global market share for a long time. According to the published data, on January 11, 2021 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first with a market share of 31.8%, 10 percentage points higher than LG energy solutions, which ranked second. The huge leading advantage makes Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) maintain the leading position in the electric vehicle battery market.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it is estimated that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) previously planned to increase and expand production by 135gwh, and the Guizhou base and Xiamen base have started one after another. The company’s production capacity will exceed 400gwh by the end of 2022. Among them, the shipment in 2022 is expected to exceed 240gwh, which has more than doubled for two consecutive years.
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the world’s first sales volume for 7 consecutive years
Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car “full of horsepower”
According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology on January 12, in 2021, in the face of the complex and changeable internal and external economic situation and the pressure from the supply chain, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto sales completed 3.521 million, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years.
“Judging from the trend, new energy vehicles maintained a prosperous development situation of production and marketing in 2021.” Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said that the sales volume of new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly, which has strongly supported the demand of automobile market. It is noteworthy that the export performance of new energy vehicles is outstanding. In 2021, 310000 new energy vehicles will be exported.
The gradual improvement of supporting facilities has laid a foundation for the rapid development of the industry. By the end of 2021, China had built 75000 charging stations, 2617000 charging piles and 1298 replacement power stations.
“China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has entered a new stage of accelerated development, but it is also facing problems such as increasing international competitive pressure and stabilizing the industrial chain supply chain.” Guo Shougang, deputy director of the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that in 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology will accelerate the construction of charging and replacing power infrastructure and continue to carry out the pilot work of new energy vehicles to the countryside and replacing power. “We also hope that all localities will introduce more preferential policies for parking, charging and other use links, optimize automobile purchase restriction measures, and create a good environment for promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles.”
In addition, in 2021, China’s automobile production and sales completed 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018. (according to Xinhua News Agency)
