After three consecutive years of decline, China's auto market finally returned to positive growth in 2021.
On January 12, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released data that in 2021, China's automobile production and sales completed 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.
China's auto market has declined since July 2018. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, auto sales fell by 2.8%, 8.2% and 1.9% respectively. In 2021, China's automobile industry is also facing challenges such as the continued spread of the global epidemic, the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China and the lack of supply caused by the impact of chip shortage. However, due to the low base in the previous two years, China's automobile industry has achieved a small restorative growth to a certain extent.
Among them, new energy vehicles, Chinese brands and automobile exports are the highlights of the development of China's automobile industry in 2021.
The annual sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, and the market share increased to 13.4%; Driven by the recovery of the international market and the improvement of China's brand competitiveness, China's automobile export has performed well, with an annual export of more than 2 million vehicles for the first time, realizing the breakthrough of hovering around 1 million vehicles for many years; Driven by the improvement of new energy and export market, Chinese brand cars have a market share of more than 44%, close to the best level in history.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said that the demand of the automobile market will remain stable. With the gradual improvement of problems such as insufficient supply of chips at the supply end and high raw material prices in the new year, it is expected that the automobile market will continue to show a stable and good development trend in 2022, and the annual production and sales performance will be better than that in 2021.
China Automobile Association predicts that in 2022, China's total automobile sales will be 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, of which the sales of passenger cars will be 23 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7%; The sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 5 million, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
New energy vehicle explosion
The full outbreak of new energy vehicles is the biggest highlight of the automotive industry in 2021. The market development has changed from policy driven to market driven, showing a good development situation of double improvement of market scale and development quality, and continues to lead the world.
In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, the highest growth rate since 2016. The market share of new energy vehicles reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. According to Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Association, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the private market has reached 88%, and the marketization of new energy vehicles is very high.
From the trend of new energy vehicles, the development situation of both production and sales has been maintained throughout the year. The monthly sales volume exceeded 200000 in March, 300000 in August, 400000 in November and 530000 in December, showing a sustained growth momentum.
From the perspective of enterprise development, both new car manufacturers and traditional car companies have achieved a good development trend in the field of new energy vehicles in 2021.
In 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electricity and plug-in hybrid lines made concerted efforts, and the annual sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 593700, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%, ranking the top in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales; SAIC GM Wuling Mini EV, which focuses on the small low-end car market, has sold 550000 vehicles in total; Tesla's Shanghai plant has an annual output of 483100 vehicles, and the brand's delivery in China is 319100 vehicles. The above three enterprises won the top three of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile.
In terms of new forces of car making, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal annual sales are more than 90000, only one step away from the goal of annual sales of 100000. Nezha, Weima and Zero run of the second echelon also achieved good growth.
In addition, traditional automobile giants Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi also accelerated the launch and layout of new energy vehicle products in the Chinese market in 2021. A large number of powerful cross-border forces in China, such as Xiaomi, Baidu, apple, Huawei and Foxconn, also accelerated the layout in 2021.
At present, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry still shows a trend of rapid growth. Although according to the requirements of the 2022 new energy vehicle promotion subsidy scheme jointly issued by the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% from 2021, it is generally believed in the industry that the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy driven to market driven, The decline of subsidies has limited impact on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles.
For the trend of new energy vehicles next year, many industry institutions have given more optimistic expectations. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger vehicle information joint committee, believes that the number of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is more than 5.5 million, and the penetration rate is about 25%.
Chinese brand China Overseas double line force
In 2021, China produced and sold 21.408 million and 21.482 million passenger cars respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 6.5% respectively. Driven by China's strong consumer market, China's passenger car market has exceeded 20 million for seven consecutive years.
However, from the change of passenger car sales throughout the year, the passenger car market showed a significant growth due to the low base at the beginning of the year. However, with the gradual emergence of the problem of insufficient chip supply and the rapid increase of the base in the same period, the passenger car market began to decline and the decline was expanded. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual easing of the chip problem, the operation of the passenger car market stabilized and the decline narrowed gradually.
Relatively speaking, under the crisis, due to the differences in product positioning and more flexible mechanism response, Chinese brand cars were less impacted than joint venture brands, driving the overall improvement of Chinese brand market share. In addition, the best-selling of Chinese brand new energy vehicles has also greatly increased the market share of independent brand vehicles.
According to the data, in 2021, a total of 9.543 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, accounting for 44.4% of the total passenger car sales, and the share increased by 6.0 percentage points over the same period last year.
Specifically, the Chinese brand passenger car enterprises in the first and second echelons have maintained a good development trend, and many enterprises have achieved double-digit growth. In addition, Chinese brands have also made breakthroughs. The sales volume of Hongqi brand has exceeded 300000 for the first time, and the sales volume of Lingke automobile has also exceeded 200000.
In 2021, the top three Chinese brands pattern formed by Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) has not changed, but the competition among the three auto enterprises is very intense. Among them, in 2021, the total sales volume of Geely Automobile was 1328000, with a year-on-year increase of about 1%; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) sales reached 1281000, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) also sold more than 1.2 million Chang'an Chinese brand passenger cars.
In terms of the second echelon, Chery Automobile, which has been silent for several years, ushered in a comprehensive outbreak in 2021, with a cumulative sales of 961900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%; Thanks to the substantial growth of new energy vehicles, Byd Company Limited(002594) passenger vehicle sales reached 730100 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%; SAIC passenger cars sold 80800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.72%. The sales scale of the three enterprises has reached a record high and will soon enter the "million club".
In 2021, China's automobile export exceeded 2 million for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 101.1%, realizing the breakthrough of hovering around 1 million in the past 10 years.
A number of Chinese auto enterprises have excellent export performance. In 2021, SAIC's total annual export volume of passenger cars reached 290000, a year-on-year increase of 68%; Chery's annual automobile export volume reached 269000; The export volume of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) was 143000, a year-on-year increase of 103%; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overseas annual cumulative sales volume exceeds 110000; Geely exported 115000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and its Lingke brand was welcomed in Europe. In addition, Weilai, Byd Company Limited(002594) and others have also brought Chinese electric vehicles to the markets of developed European countries such as Norway.
Fu Bingfeng pointed out that in 2021, China's automobile export showed the following four characteristics.
First of all, among the top 10 Chinese brands exported in 2021, 9 achieved export growth, of which 4 enterprises exported cars with a growth rate of more than 100%; Secondly, the exports of passenger cars and commercial vehicles have increased. In terms of passenger cars, SUV is absolutely dominant, and Chinese brands are more competitive in the SUV market; The export of new energy vehicles increased explosively, with a particularly prominent performance. The export of new energy vehicles was 310000, a year-on-year increase of 3 times. Among them, the European market has become a major incremental market, mainly concentrated in developed countries such as Belgium, Britain, France and Norway, showing that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has strong international competitiveness; The direct investment model has played an important role. SAIC, great wall, Geely and other enterprises have established factories overseas, supporting Chinese brands to take root overseas and laying a foundation for future development.
Fu Bingfeng predicts that in 2022, the growth rate of China's automobile export will be about 20%, and China's automobile export will usher in a period of rapid growth.
2022 opportunities and challenges coexist
In 2022, opportunities and challenges will coexist for the development of China's automobile industry.
On the one hand, under the dual carbon strategy, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will continue to grow; Automobile is accelerating from traditional manufacturing industry to high-tech industry with cross industry integration. China's intelligent networked automobile has great prospects, and China is also becoming the innovation fulcrum of the global automobile industry.
On the other hand, China's auto market is also facing the impact of rising raw materials, intensified enterprise competition and other factors. Chip shortage and local epidemic will also have a certain impact on auto production. In addition, with China's automobile fully liberalizing the restrictions on the share ratio of joint ventures in 2022, it will also have a certain impact on the pattern of China's automobile industry.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, said that the development of China's automobile market will face many adverse factors in 2022.
First of all, the current international epidemic situation is constantly changing, and the uncertainty of the epidemic is still the biggest risk. In addition, there is downward pressure on the macro economy due to the internal and external impact of rising commodity prices, aging population, debt risk in the real estate market, Sino US relations and other factors. Second, the decline in real estate investment, the transfer of foreign capital, the adjustment of double reduction policies in the education industry, the industrial adjustment to achieve the carbon peak goal, and the impact of cross-border e-commerce on employment may restrict consumption. Third, the shortage of chip supply will continue. The global replenishment pressure will not be greatly improved. The channel inventory has been basically empty, so it is difficult to replenish. In addition, the shortage of chips has a certain disturbance to the demand, which makes it difficult to accurately judge the real situation of the market. Replenishment of inventory brings uncertainty to wholesale sales. The inventory gap of 1-2 million dealers caused by core shortage affects the forecast of next year.
On January 11, Feng Sihan, CEO of Volkswagen Group (China), said at the annual communication meeting of Volkswagen China that the impact of chip shortage will still exist in 2022. At the same time, enterprises will also face some reasons for local supply shortage in China.
"In the past few weeks, a new round of epidemic broke out in Ningbo. Ningbo is an important base for our automobile production and automobile supply. Obviously, the epidemic in Ningbo will affect our overall delivery performance. Tianjin has recently been affected by Omicron strain, and the supply has also begun to be affected by a series of effects." Feng Sihan said.
On January 11, Gong min, research director of UBS's China automotive industry, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that in 2022, China's automotive industry needs to face several challenges: it is possible that the terminal demand is not as strong as expected. In addition, more inventory increases caused by the easing of the supply side may lead to the deterioration of the price environment, With the rise of raw material prices, all auto enterprises need to be prepared.
"The goal of 2022 announced by automobile enterprises is actually very radical. If the plans formulated by various automobile enterprises are serious and radical, in the face of the situation that the demand may not be very strong, we should really be prepared, which may lead to a serious price war." Gong Min said.
In the past two decades, China has always had strict restrictions on the share ratio of joint venture vehicle enterprises. Liberalizing the restrictions on the share ratio of joint ventures is conducive to the deepening of market-oriented competition. It also reflects China's attitude of adhering to the policy of opening up to the outside world and the only way to gradually practice the transformation from a consumer power to a manufacturing power. However, last year, the electric vehicle platform of traditional multinational car enterprises entered China, but in fact, it did not have a great impact on China's independent brands. On the contrary, the electric vehicles of independent brands have been further strengthened in terms of product strength and competitiveness. The rise of China's automobile industry and China's electric vehicle product power and competitiveness is obvious to all.
"From the perspective of vehicle development, we (Volkswagen) When doing product benchmarking, 80% of the benchmarking models are Chinese local models, and only 20% are international models. We attach great importance to our competitors or auto enterprises in the Chinese market. In the future, we will see that some Chinese local auto enterprises, just like some Korean auto enterprises in the past, are becoming more and more powerful and important in the global market. " Feng Sihan said.
