Despite the previous soaring prices, China’s coal market has cooled significantly under policy regulation in the fourth quarter of 2021, but under the strong price center, the performance of industrial enterprises in the fourth quarter is still good.
the fourth quarter operating data of coal enterprises improved
On January 12 Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) (600395), it was disclosed that the main production and operation data in the fourth quarter of 2021 showed that during the period, the company’s coal output was 2.987 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.91%; The sales volume of coal was 3.457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.46%, of which the sales volume of self-produced coal was 2.8772 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.83%. The coal sales revenue was 3.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.36%; The gross profit was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.79%.
As the only listed coal enterprise in the south of the Yangtze River, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) is an important large-scale coking coal and power coal production base in the south. As of the semi annual report of 2021, the production mines of the company have obtained the safety production license, and the “licensed” production capacity totals 18.6 million tons / year, an increase of 5 million tons compared with the announced production capacity of 13.6 million tons / year on December 31, 2020. During the period, the company’s operating revenue increased by 14.21% year-on-year and the net profit increased by 23.54% year-on-year.
Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) the improvement of business data in the fourth quarter is not an example.
According to the announcement of Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) (601015) on January 11, the coke sales revenue of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 3.116 billion yuan; The average unit price of coke was 3039.27 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 69.97%.
Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) based on coke and chemical production as the core, build a circular economy industrial chain according to the technical route of coke, gas and chemical co production. By the end of June 2021, the company has an annual design capacity of 7.8 million tons of coke, 300000 tons of methanol, 370000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 250000 tons of LNG and 60000 tons of BDO. The coke production capacity has ranked among the top in China, and the capacity of methanol, LNG, synthetic ammonia and BDO is small.
In the first half of 2021, under the background of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”, there are more environmental protection and energy consumption policies. On the whole, coke and chemical products are in a tight balance between supply and demand. In the first half of 2021, coke price and profit are at a relatively high level. Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) the semi annual performance in 2021 increased by 771.05% year-on-year, and the performance in the first three quarters increased by 4897.74% year-on-year.
two rounds of increase in coking coal in the new year have landed
In late October 2021, under the guidance of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the prices of power coal, coking coal and coke fell sharply one after another, and the trend of halving was realized in a short time. However, after experiencing low prices, the coal market has shown signs of recovery recently.
At the same time, according to recent market news, recently Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) issued documents and decided to carry out the group wide centralized action of “100 day tackling key problems” for the investigation and rectification of potential safety production risks from now to March 31, and the special action to severely crack down on illegal mining of mineral resources, so as to effectively prevent and resolutely curb all kinds of production safety accidents. The supply reduction of coking coal market is expected to start again.
According to the analysis of cctd China coal market network, the factors superimposed on the Winter Olympics this year may have a large impact, and the hot market last year made many coal mines profitable. In order to avoid safety accidents, production was reduced to varying degrees, and the supply of coking coal market was tightened for a short time.
In 2022, coking coal and coke prices continued the rebound trend at the end of last year, showing an upward trend. Coking enterprises have implemented two rounds of price increases, raising 200 yuan / ton for the second time, and the coke price of large coke enterprises in Hebei has increased 200 yuan / ton. After adjustment, the quasi primary CDQ is reported as 3150 yuan / ton, which will be implemented from January 6, 2022. Steel mills accept more coke price increases. Coking coal prices also rebounded strongly when users replenished the warehouse.
Analysts believe that there may be another window for coke price increase before the Spring Festival, but the pressure of another sharp increase of 200 yuan / ton is large, and the strength may be weakened. Before the Spring Festival, the coal coke market will still operate strongly. After the user replenishment is completed, the production restriction factor will make it difficult for the coal coke market demand to increase significantly. The space for the rebound of coal coke price may be affected by the production restriction. In the later stage, the probability of continuing to rise sharply is small, and the price center may have the pressure to fall.
The Research Report of open source securities also showed that the coke price was raised by 200 yuan again this week. In terms of demand, after new year’s day, the pace of resumption of production of steel mills is accelerated, the origin in North China is obvious, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace has increased significantly, driving the demand for coke to be better. In terms of supply, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction remains, the operating rate of coke enterprises is still low, and the coke fundamentals have changed from weak to strong. At the same time, with the increase of coking coal price, the cost side support of coking coal price is improved. At the same time, the price of coking coal in the origin has ushered in a new round of rise. The resumption of blast furnace production in the steel plant is expected to boost the demand for replenishment in the downstream of coking steel. At the same time, the continuous force of origin security inspection has limited the release of output, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the import end is disturbed by the epidemic situation again. Coking coal fundamentals ushered in a phased inflection point and gradually turned to tight balance, driving the rise of coking coal prices.
