On January 12, when the supply and demand of lithium carbonate was still tight, its futures price suddenly collapsed, causing great concern in the market.
In early trading, according to the quotation of Wuxi stainless steel network, the price of lithium carbonate collectively fell for several periods, with a decline of more than 10%, and the lithium price index fell by nearly 11%. This is the price of lithium carbonate in each period has fallen sharply for two consecutive days.
On the other hand, there was no significant change in the spot lithium carbonate price. According to the data released on Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) 12, the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose again, lithium carbonate rose 10500 yuan / ton, and the average price exceeded 330000 yuan / ton. The expected price of 300000 yuan / ton in the industry is after the Spring Festival this year.
Lithium carbonate prices continued to collapse, but the new energy vehicle sector made a comeback on the 12th, which seems to have the potential to recover lost ground. As of the close, leading stocks Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) rose more than 5%, and Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594. SZ) rose more than 7%. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799. SH) rose the limit, mainly because the company’s performance forecast in 2021 exceeded market expectations.
At present, new energy vehicles have developed to the stage of “from 1 to 10”, and the downstream vehicle demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, which may make it difficult to bridge the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium carbonate in the short term. However, it should also be noted that the high price of lithium carbonate has attracted a number of A-share listed companies to “cross border”, but it is still difficult to determine whether the transformation results can be reflected in performance growth.
why did the futures price fall sharply under the strong demand?
As the upstream raw material of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the price change and transmission of lithium carbonate products depend on the overall supply and demand pattern of the lithium industry and the downstream battery installation demand. The contradiction between supply and demand supports the continuous rise of lithium carbonate prices.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. China Automobile Association said that the development of new energy automobile industry has shifted from policy driven to market driven new development stage, becoming the biggest highlight of the automobile industry.
In terms of power batteries, from January to December 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume accumulated 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%. Among them, the total loading volume of ternary battery was 74.3gwh, accounting for 48.1% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 91.3%; The cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 79.8gwh, accounting for 51.7% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 227.4%.
With regard to the recent record of lithium carbonate spot, A new energy industry analyst told reporters: “At present, the price of lithium carbonate is still rising, which drives the quotation of lithium iron phosphate upward. For the current situation, downstream customers accept it more. Everyone is grabbing the market. On the one hand, battery enterprises are generally positive in taking goods in order to cash in the new capacity. On the other hand, the strong stock mood before the Spring Festival is also the main factor that leads to the price of spot lithium carbonate falling.”
The high price of lithium carbonate directly drives the “explosion” of the performance of relevant listed companies in 2021. On January 12, Zangger mining (000408. SZ) released a performance forecast. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.4 billion-1.45 billion in 2021, an increase of 511.65% to 533.5% over the same period of the previous year.
With Chaerhan Salt Lake as the center, the two main products of potassium chloride and battery grade lithium carbonate operated by zangge mining are hot commodities with rising prices in 2021. The company’s share price also increased from a minimum of about 7 yuan / share at the beginning of 2021 to a maximum of 41.77 yuan / share on January 4, 2022, realizing a nearly five fold increase.
Although the excessive rise in the upstream will thicken the short-term performance of relevant listed companies, it will put pressure on the manufacturing costs of vehicle manufacturers. In the long run, the rise in the upstream price is not good for the long-term development of the industrial chain. For the late trend of lithium carbonate price, the aforementioned analysts said that from the perspective of the terminal demand of new energy vehicles, it may be difficult for the spot lithium carbonate price to fall sharply in the short term. “The supply chain price game or the situation faced by new energy vehicles for a long time, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will not change much during the year. On the one hand, the sales volume of terminal vehicles continues to grow, and the supply of raw materials at the smelting end can not keep up with the growth rate of upstream and downstream demand. On the other hand, China’s lithium resources are not dominant compared with overseas, and the epidemic situation is repeated, so the smelting expansion plan can be improved It is still uncertain whether it will be reached as scheduled. “
cross border lithium industry of several A-share companies. Is the performance worth looking forward to
Behind the repeated cases of “rising with lithium” in the secondary market is the background that the global wave of electrification is coming, the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly, the lithium battery industry has entered the acceleration stage of demand capacity, and the photovoltaic industry has ushered in the inflection point of technological iteration. In this context, a number of A-share companies in different industries cross-border “into lithium” to find new profit points.
The reporter noted that one of the cross-border entry directions of A-share enterprises is iron phosphate. As the precursor of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode material, the development of iron phosphate is closely related to the market demand of lithium iron phosphate. As one of the cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate has comparative advantages over ternary materials in safety, cycle life, production cost and other comprehensive indicators. According to incomplete statistics, in the second half of 2021 alone, more than 10 listed companies crossed the lithium battery industry, many of which were chemical enterprises.
For example, the large inorganic fine chemical group Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (002601. SZ), which is committed to the R & D and manufacturing of titanium and zirconium fine powder materials, announced three announcements related to the investment in lithium batteries on August 12, 2021, including the construction of a 200000 ton battery material grade iron phosphate production line and related supporting engineering facilities, with a project investment of 1.2 billion yuan (constructed in three phases); Invest in the construction of artificial graphite cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons for lithium-ion batteries, with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan (constructed in two phases); And Henan Longbai New Material Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to invest in the industrialization project of lithium ion battery materials with an annual output of 200000 tons, with an investment of 2 billion yuan (constructed in three phases).
The three projects need to consume a total of 4.7 billion yuan of the company’s own and self raised funds, while the data of the third quarter show that the net profit of Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) in the first three quarters was 3.879 billion yuan.
Another chemical enterprise and one of the titanium dioxide giants Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) (002145. SZ) also has iron phosphate in a series of foreign investment plans previously released. The company plans to build an iron phosphate project with an annual output of 500000 tons, with a total investment of 3.83 billion yuan, including 3.554 billion yuan of construction investment and 276 million yuan of initial working capital.
Coincidentally, the largest titanium dioxide production enterprise Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) (002136. SZ) in Anhui Province also announced that it would jointly invest with Hunan Yuneng to establish a joint venture engaged in the production and operation of iron phosphate and build a 50000 ton high-pressure solid iron phosphate industrialization upgrading project. Of which Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) monetary contribution is 78 million yuan, accounting for 65% of the registered capital.
In addition to the above companies, the listed chemical enterprises that announced cross-border iron phosphate and supporting projects in 2021 also include Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shandong Taihe Water Treatment Technologies Co.Ltd(300801) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) .
In addition to chemical enterprises, there are also news from companies in other industries announcing their participation in the lithium industry. There will be more than one announcement of cross-border “lithium import” within 7 trading days in 2022.
On January 5, 2022, the listed real estate company Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) (600077. SH) announced that it planned to invest in the establishment of Zhejiang Songdu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Songdu lithium industry”) to carry out energy storage technology services, development, consulting, energy conservation management services and other businesses. After the news was announced, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) received three one word limit boards.
According to the annual report, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2020 was 352 million yuan, a decrease of 40.08% over the same period of last year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first three quarters of 2021 was 61 million yuan, a decrease of 63.40% over the same period of last year. The establishment of Songdu lithium industry plans to invest 500 million yuan of its own funds, accounting for 10.6% of the company’s latest audited net assets.
On January 6, Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) (603399. SH), whose main business is molybdenum product business and film and television business, also announced that it plans to acquire 100% equity of Hunan Yongshan Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. at the price of 480 million yuan. The company’s business scope includes the production of lithium-ion battery materials. In the four trading days after the announcement, Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) closed at the daily limit. On January 12, the closing price was 10.51 yuan / share, a new high since March 25, 2020.
