Data released by the Federation of passenger cars: in December, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.366 million, a month on month increase of + 10.0% and a year-on-year increase of + 2.3%; Retail sales volume was 2.105 million units, a month on month increase of + 15.9% and a year-on-year increase of – 7.9%. In 2021, the annual wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 21.098 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%; The retail sales volume was 2014.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 4.4%. The annual wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of + 181.0%.
Chip supply continued to improve and monthly sales continued to pick up. Since 21q4, the chip supply has gradually improved, driving the production and sales of passenger cars to climb month by month. In December, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.366 million, a month on month increase of + 10.0%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.3%, a year-on-year increase of + 9.2%; The retail sales volume was 2.105 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.9%, a month on month increase of + 15.9%, a year-on-year increase of – 1.9% compared with December 19, and a month on month increase of + 10% compared with December in recent years. The retail trend improved significantly in December this year. By brand: (1) in December, 250000 luxury brand cars were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of – 3%, a month on month increase of + 18%, and a year-on-year increase of + 22%; (2) Mainstream joint venture brands retail 930000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 19%, a month on month increase of + 19%, a year-on-year increase of – 5%; (3) The retail sales of independent brands reached 930000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 4%, a month on month increase of + 12%, and a year-on-year increase of + 25% compared with that of 19 years. The leading enterprises of independent brands performed strongly and gained significant growth in the new energy market. The equivalence ratio of Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC passenger cars and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) showed high growth.
The new energy vehicle market has diversified and the industry penetration has accelerated. According to the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505000 in December, a month on month increase of + 17.8% and a year-on-year increase of + 138.9%. Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 82000, a year-on-year increase of + 143.9%; The wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 423000, a year-on-year increase of + 137.9%.
Tesla, leading enterprises of independent brands and “weixiaoli” and other new forces have excellent sales performance. The wholesale sales of manufacturers have exceeded 10000 units: Byd Company Limited(002594) 93000 units, Tesla China 71000 units, SAIC GM Wuling 60000 units, Great Wall 21000 units, Chery, Geely, Xiaopeng, SAIC passenger cars, GAC ai\’an, ideal, FAW Volkswagen, Weilai, Chang\’an The monthly sales of Hezhong also exceeded 10000. In December, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 21.3%, showing an accelerated trend of improvement. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 35.2%, much higher than 3.7% of mainstream joint venture brands; From January to December, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 3.312 million, with a penetration rate of 15.7%.
In December, the automobile consumption index decreased month on month, and the dealer inventory further increased. According to China Automobile Circulation Association, the automobile consumption index in December was 71.4, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.5% and a month on month increase of – 1.2%. In December, the seller’s inventory early warning index was 56.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.6pct and a month on month increase of + 0.7 PCT.
Outlook for the auto market in 2022: 2021 has experienced adverse factors such as chip shortage, multi-point spread of the epidemic and decline in overall consumer confidence. However, with the support of the national policy of “stable growth and promoting consumption”, the auto industry has overcome the impact of chip shortage and epidemic and achieved relatively stable growth. In 2022, with the continuous improvement of chip supply and the gradual and effective control of the epidemic, China’s automobile market is expected to continue to recover.
We expect the sales volume of passenger cars to reach 23 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%; Among them, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 5.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 66.1% and the penetration rate reached about 24%.
Investment suggestions: with the gradual easing of chip shortage and the improvement of supply side, the automotive industry has gradually entered the inventory adding cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Geely Automobile, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ] with abundant orders in hand, intelligent electric layout, strong elasticity of production and sales growth, and continuous strengthening of medium and long-term competitiveness, And the head enterprise of new forces in car making [Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai]. In addition, in the “active inventory” stage, the demand for parts by vehicle enterprises is expected to pick up, and the prices of raw materials and sea freight have fallen at the high level of 21q4. We believe that the parts sector still has some poor expectations and performance repair space at the current time point. It is suggested to pay attention to the parts sector: (1) the fundamentals are reversed upward, and the performance elasticity is large [ Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ]; (2) Smart car quality track, smart cockpit [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) ], air suspension [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) ], brake by wire [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ], etc; (3) Benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy vehicles [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (coverage of new power generation group), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (coverage of new power generation group), Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], etc.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is declining, the effect of policy implementation is less than expected, and the shortage of chips is more than expected.
