The price of lithium carbonate has collapsed!
according to the quotation of Wuxi stainless steel network, the price of lithium carbonate in several periods fell collectively. As of about 10:20 a.m., the decline was more than 10%, and the lithium price index fell nearly 11%. This is the second consecutive day that lithium prices have plummeted. In fact, the price of lithium carbonate collapsed yesterday, and the lithium price index fell 10.5% yesterday. Since July this year, the lithium price index has increased by nearly 300% to the highest price in this round.
Recently, the price of lithium carbonate on various platforms has continued to reach a new high. The price of lithium carbonate of Shanghai oujin Industrial Co., Ltd. increased, and the ex factory quotation reached 300000 yuan / ton. The quotation of lithium carbonate on all platforms almost reached a new record. According to media reports, the trust relationship can\’t get the goods now. The relationship between supply and demand is very tense. It is settled according to the “current price” every day. Is the situation reversed overnight?
So far, the trend of lithium concept stocks has differentiated, but there has been no sharp decline. So, what is the reason for the sudden collective collapse of lithium carbonate prices?
lithium battery leading stocks performed better when raw materials fell sharply. As of midday closing, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose by about 4%.
Lithium carbonate price collective collapse
On the morning of January 12, according to the quotation of Wuxi stainless steel network, the price of lithium carbonate fell collectively for several periods. As of about 10:20 a.m., the decline was more than 10%, and the lithium price index fell nearly 11%.
Since July this year, the lithium price index has increased by nearly 300% to the highest price in this round. In fact, the price of lithium carbonate collapsed yesterday, and the lithium price index fell 10.5% yesterday.
According to yesterday’s Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) / Asian metal network / wind metal quotation: the quotation of spodumene concentrate is US $2640 / ton, and the price is stable; The price of lithium metal was 1509000 yuan / ton, up 2.86%; The quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 298500 yuan / ton, up 2.75%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 314500 yuan / ton, up 2.61%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 235500 yuan / ton, up 2.61%. The above quotation has reached an all-time high.
Then, in this context, why did the lithium carbonate term price of Wuxi stainless steel mesh suddenly plummet? A source said that it may be because Wuxi stainless steel online adjusted the trading margin. However, the reporter did not find relevant information on its official website. But it is more obvious that speculation funds are ebbing.
Supply and demand remain tight
according to various information, the supply-demand relationship of lithium carbonate is still tight. Since December 27, 2021, the quotation of lithium carbonate has been rising rapidly. Data show that after a single day rise of 10000 yuan / ton on January 5, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate rose again on January 6, reaching the price of 292000 yuan / ton to 300000 yuan / ton. The average price of 296000 yuan / ton increased by 8000 yuan compared with the previous day, an increase of 6.47% compared with the beginning of the year.
According to media reports such as Shanghai Securities News, the price of lc2206 in Changzhou Zoomlion battery grade lithium carbonate contract last week has risen to 400000 yuan / ton, 116000 yuan / ton higher than the current price of electric carbon. A person in charge of the company said that customers who come to the door to “seek carbon” don\’t ask the price. Everyone takes the goods as soon as they have them. “Some customers can\’t get the goods with their \’relationship\’, and the company doesn\’t have excess inventory at all.” The person in charge said frankly that the latest transaction price of battery grade lithium carbonate produced by his enterprise is 320000 yuan / ton. In his opinion, lithium carbonate, which is already “sky high”, does not worry about selling at all.
The person in charge of a lithium carbonate enterprise in Qinghai revealed that the relationship between supply and demand is still very tense and is settled according to the “current price” every day. The price of lithium carbonate of Shanghai oujin Industrial Co., Ltd. increased, and the ex factory quotation reached 300000 yuan / ton.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) the analysis points out that in 2022, despite the large supply of Australian mines and salt lakes, the market demand for new energy vehicles is expected to continue a strong structural expansion. The demand for raw material storage brought by the expansion of midstream materials and batteries will continue to drive the consumption of lithium resources, and the supply of lithium salts and lithium mines may remain relatively tight (especially in the first half of 2022).
however, if the supervision becomes stricter, the speculation about lithium price may also stop. This can refer to the previous trend of coal. Previously, there was a “coal crazy” market in the market, which seriously affected production and life. Then there was a wave of strict supervision, and the coal price also cooled. The price of lithium is too high, which is certainly not conducive to the development of new energy vehicles. If the cost of new energy vehicles is too much higher than that of fuel vehicles, consumers will not buy it. If consumers don\’t buy it, it will greatly affect the major strategic deployment of carbon neutralization and carbon peak. Therefore, it may be reasonable for lithium to step on the brake.
Does it affect the stock price?
Will the term price of lithium carbonate fall for two consecutive days affect the stock price? From the current situation, although the lithium index fell yesterday, it still rebounded today, which may mean that it has little impact on the stock price in the short term.
Shengang Securities said that at present, the lithium ore inventory is low and the tight supply of resources at the mine end continues. In addition, there are very few spot ore sources in the market due to the long-term procurement between Chinese smelters and Australian mining enterprises, and the continuous increase of terminal demand promotes the outbreak of demand for lithium products. The bullish intention in the future is strong. Under the extremely tight market of spot ore sources, enterprises have a high intention to get ore at high prices. The high price created by the auction of Pilbara lithium concentrate, the main lithium mining enterprise in Australia, reflects the market’s enthusiastic demand for ore.
According to the latest prediction of China Automobile Association, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles may reach 3.4 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times; In 2022, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales are expected to reach 5.5 million, accounting for about 20% of the total car sales. It is worth noting that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 7.2% in January 2021 to 17.8% in November, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has been close to 20%. The growth of electric vehicle sales will be accompanied by the large volume of core component power batteries. It is estimated that the demand for lithium carbonate will reach 540000 tons in 2022. In 2021, the supply of lithium carbonate in China was only about 229000 tons, with a huge gap between supply and demand. This may be the most critical factor supporting expectations. Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) holds a similar view.
analysts believe that although the logic of futures and stocks is different, they will still affect each other in the end, especially the impact of futures on stocks is relatively large. If the term price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, it will also have a certain impact on the stock price. Today, the performance of lithium concept stocks is differentiated. The decline of Tibet Urban Development And Investment Co.Ltd(600773) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) and Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) is large, and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) is also rising and falling.
