Industry dynamics
Industry status
Recently, at CES 2022, lidar developer lumotive and automotive lighting giant zkw jointly launched a solution integrating lidar and headlights. We believe that the integrated scheme of road lighting provided by lamps and 3D perceptual imaging provided by lidar or guiding the upgrading direction of the next generation of intelligent lamps, we actively remind investors to pay attention to relevant industrial chain companies.
Commentary
Lamp upgrading is in the ascendant, the integration solution of automobile lighting and lidar is emerging, and the ceiling of the industry is opened. We believe that the integration of lamp and lidar is reflected in two aspects: Modeling and function:
1) the shape of the lamp and the position of the lidar are the core elements of the vehicle design language. Due to the large volume, the traditional mechanical lidar is often carried on the roof with low aesthetics. The structure of MEMS semi-solid lidar is more compact than mechanical, which is usually carried on the front face or the upper edge of the front windshield.
In the future, lidar can be directly integrated inside the lamp and integrated with the lamp design. 2) Functionally speaking, in order to avoid the impact of dust and dirt on lidar imaging, the lidar needs to keep the sensor clean through the intelligent cleaning system. The integrated scheme can realize the coordination of headlamp and lidar cleaning. We are optimistic about the new changes in the shape design and function integration of the lamp integrated with the lidar 3D system.
Explore the development direction of automotive lighting, increase the penetration of matrix (ADB) headlights and interior atmosphere lamps in the medium and short term, and see the integration solution of lighting and perception in the long term. Lamp development has experienced the transformation from halogen lamp to LED lamp. In 2021, the global penetration rate of LED headlamp has exceeded 42%. We expect that ADB penetration rate is expected to exceed 20% in 2023 and 35% in 2025. In the medium term, it will drive the total market value of China's headlights to expand by more than 10 billion yuan. New energy vehicles more actively embrace the configuration of ambient lights to improve consumers' driving experience. We expect that the penetration rate of interior atmosphere lamp will rapidly grow to more than 50% with the upgrading of consumers' demand for intelligent cockpit experience, driving the continuous upgrading of the industry.
The cross-border industry accelerates technological change, and the intelligent automobile promotes the comprehensive upgrading of the lamp track. Just as zkw cooperates with lumotive, Marelli Al and xenomatix to launch integrated solutions, the integration of lidar and intelligent lamp technology accelerates the technological change of the industry. We believe that lidar suppliers have advantages in laser emission and perceptual imaging, while lamp enterprises are better at light path design and lamp modeling design. Both sides will promote the comprehensive upgrading of lamp track by virtue of their respective talents.
Valuation and recommendations
Based on our judgment on the direction of integrated sensing technology of lamp and lidar, we suggest to pay attention to: 1) head lamp enterprises: such as Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Huayu vision ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) subsidiary), Changchun Faway Automobile Components Co.Ltd(600742) (not covered); 2) Lamp control enterprises and atmosphere lamp suppliers, such as Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ; 3) Leading enterprise at the upstream material end of the industrial chain: Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) (not covered).
Risk
Technological progress is less than expected.
