As a commodity that has been active since last year, coal prices and supply have always been concerned by all parties.
Recently, a large number of policies to increase production and stabilize prices of coal have been launched one after another, and the epidemic factors have temporarily slowed down the demand for coal. Coal industry researchers believe that the stable operation of the market can be expected.
a large number of policies are clear
to strengthen coal safety support
In order to achieve the goal of "double carbon", China encourages the rapid development of new energy power generation represented by wind power and photovoltaic. However, restricted by many factors, the actual contribution of new energy power generation is not directly proportional to the installed capacity. Especially in the second half of last year, there was a "coal shortage" and "power shortage" in some areas, which also led to the unification of various views, that is, under the "double carbon" goal, we need to correctly understand the value of coal and coal power. Recently, the documents issued at the national level once again made it clear to strengthen the guarantee of coal safety.
The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan, which made it clear to strengthen the guarantee of coal safety. Optimize the layout of coal production capacity, build five coal supply guarantee bases in Shanxi, Western Mongolia, eastern Mongolia, Northern Shaanxi and Xinjiang, improve the cross regional transportation channel and collection and distribution system of coal, and enhance the cross regional supply guarantee capacity of coal.
The National Energy Administration issued the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022, which proposed to strengthen the bottom-up guarantee capacity of coal and coal power. Make overall plans for resource continuity and sustainable development of mining areas, and orderly approve a number of high-quality and advanced production capacity coal mines. Accelerate the construction and operation of coal mines under construction, and promote the transformation of qualified emergency supply capacity into normal capacity. Guided by the demonstration coal mine, accelerate the intelligent construction, upgrading and transformation of coal mine. Deepen coal mine safety transformation. Scientifically plan and build advanced coal-fired power units, arrange a certain scale of supporting power supply to ensure the safety of power supply and regulatory power supply to promote the consumption of new energy, maintain a reasonable margin of installed capacity, and strictly implement the latest technical standards such as coal consumption for new projects. Promote the implementation of supporting policies such as electricity price, tax and loan for coal-fired power enterprises, and encourage coal-fired power enterprises to transform into "power generation +" comprehensive energy service-oriented enterprises and multi energy complementary enterprises.
In terms of coal price stabilization, the national development and Reform Commission revealed on April 18 that it will, according to the opinions of all parties, pay close attention to improving the relevant provisions on the identification standards of illegal acts of bid up in the coal field, promote relevant departments to strengthen law enforcement and inspection, effectively maintain the price order of the coal market and better ensure national energy security.
local planning released successively
high quality coal mine approval accelerated
coal price stability and supply guarantee must be implemented, and attention must be paid to the implementation of important coal producing areas
On the afternoon of April 21, Shanxi provincial government held a teleconference on increasing coal production and ensuring supply and export. The meeting proposed to do a good job in increasing coal production and ensuring supply and export on the premise of ensuring safe production and epidemic prevention and control. We should come up with real and hard moves, strive to get rid of the difficulties and pain points in coal production and coal related transportation, and maintain the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
The guidance on energy work in the whole province in 2022 issued by Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau makes it clear that the coal output of Shandong Province will be stable at about 95 million tons in 2022. Stabilize production in the province, focus on the "three types of coal mines" with good storage conditions, safety and security and high level of intelligence, actively release advanced production capacity and increase the production capacity of Binhu Coal Mine by 400000 tons / year; Promote the construction of Wanfu Coal Mine project, with a production capacity of 1.8 million tons / year. Stabilize the supply outside the province, increase the development of coal resources outside the province such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and guide key coal consuming enterprises to sign medium and long-term contracts with coal mines outside the province.
The 14th five year plan for energy development of Sichuan Province proposes to promote green coal mining. Adhere to the principle of "limiting the small and supporting the large, increasing the good and reducing the bad", and maintain a reasonable and effective capacity scale. By 2025, the proportion of high-quality coal mine production will reach more than 50%.
high quality coal mine approval or nuclear increase progress is also accelerating recently, the verification report on the production capacity of Yimin open pit mine of Huaneng Yimin Coal Power Company prepared by the consulting center of China Coal Industry Association passed the review of the State Bureau of mine safety supervision. The production capacity of Yimin open pit mine was increased to 35 million tons / year, which is expected to further release the high-quality production capacity in eastern Mongolia, which plays an important role in ensuring the coal supply in Northeast China, ensuring the healthy development of regional economy and the stability of society and people's livelihood.
The Yili No. 1 mine construction project of Xinjiang energy and chemical company successfully passed the completion acceptance on April 20. It is reported that Yili No. 1 mine is the first ten million ton modern underground mine approved by the national development and Reform Commission in Xinjiang, with a design capacity of 10 million tons / year and a service life of 142 years. According to the data, the project was officially started in 2007 and the work safety license was obtained on December 8, 2020.
demand is temporarily in a breathing period
coal price stable operation period
The previous "coal crazy" market left an extremely deep impression on all parties. Recently, due to the escalation of epidemic prevention and control in many places, the coal market is in a rare respite period.
According to the latest report of Yimei Research Institute, a research institution, under the influence of the current epidemic, the daily consumption of coastal power plants decreased by 10.8% year-on-year, the inventory increased by 23.2% year-on-year, and the supply and demand showed a loose state. This year's hydropower output is better than that of the same period in previous years. Taking the Three Gorges hydropower as an example, the easy coal network model predicts that on April 20, the Three Gorges Hydropower generated 302.4 million kwh, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year, an increase of nearly 50% compared with the end of March. The same month on month increment is obvious, and it also squeezed the thermal power, resulting in the recent continuous decline in the daily consumption of thermal power. It is expected that the hydropower will still increase by nearly 20% compared with the current one by May. The power coal market will remain weak in the near future.
Looking forward to the future, Yang Jie, deputy director of Research Department of Yimei Research Institute, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that the supply and demand side of coal is further improving. Relevant departments will study and clarify the identification standards of illegal acts of bid up in the coal field, which is expected to dredge the market price back to a reasonable range.
Power planning Anhui Transport Consulting & Design Institute Co.Ltd(603357) related experts said on April 25 that in the dual requirements of green and safety, the coal industry should find out the family background and clarify the incremental space of coal production capacity. At the same time, the industry should optimize the production capacity structure and take the road of high-quality development. Relevant large coal bases should develop in an integrated way and turn to comprehensive energy services. In addition, all parties should jointly improve the reserve system and ensure stable supply. Accelerating the high-quality development of the coal industry can not only give full play to the role of coal in the safe supply of energy, but also escort the construction of a new power system and a modern energy system.
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