The profit of thermal power has stabilized, and the scenery is waiting for the subsidy to be implemented. Most power companies rose this week: power stocks continued the rise on April 15 this week, with weekly rise and decline of Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) + 9%, Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) + 3.8%, Longyuan Power – 2.8%, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) -1.2%. Despite the weekly adjustment, the scenery operators also rose significantly on April 22. We believe that the scenery operators are related to the market style switching defense, but the wind power still faces the weak impact of wind conditions in the first quarter (555 hours in Q1 and 65 hours in yoy-65). According to the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism issued by the national development and Reform Commission on February 25, from May 1, the coal price of QinGang zhongchangxie will be implemented at 570770 yuan / ton. We believe that the concern about the high coal price of thermal power Q1 is expected to be diluted. If the above coal price range is fulfilled, the profit of thermal power companies will be more certain after May, and the power plant will benefit, but the profit improvement range should not be too optimistic.
We believe that most thermal power companies will not make significant losses in the first quarter, but near the break even point. According to the operating data of some companies in the first quarter of the first quarter, according to the operating data of some companies: the electricity price of most power companies is up 20% year-on-year in the first quarter. The electricity price of most power companies is up 20% year-on-year, according to the first quarter operating data of some companies: the electricity price of most power companies: the year-on-year price of most power companies: the year-on-year increase of 20% ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 60027 \ \stabilizeand recover.
Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of power generation decreased in March and continued to decline from April 8 to 14. 1. Bureau of Statistics: the power generation in March was 670.2 billion kwh, yoy + 0.2% (YoY + 4% from January to February). Among them, thermal power yoy + 5.7% (January February yoy + 4.3%), hydropower yoy + 19.8% (January February yoy + 8.2%), nuclear power yoy + 2.2% (January February yoy + 9.6%), wind power yoy + 23.8% (January February yoy-7.6%), photovoltaic yoy + 16.8% (January February yoy + 6.5%). 22q1 power generation + 3.1% year-on-year to 1.99 trillion kwh; Among them, clean energy + 8.3% year-on-year. 2. CLP: from April 8 to 14, the coal inflow and coal consumption of the power plant showed a downward trend. The average daily power generation of coal-fired power generation enterprises was – 0.6% month on month, 19.3% year on year, and the average daily coal consumption was – 2.5% month on month, 13.4% year on year; The average daily coal input of the power plant was – 0.8% month on month and – 9.6% year on year. The inventory sub index was 51.49%, down 0.14 PCT month on month; The price sub index was 43.91%, down 1.82pct month on month.
State Council: increase coal production capacity by 300 million tons and develop nuclear power in an orderly manner. In March this year, the output of raw coal was 396 million tons, yoy + 14.8% (January February + 10.3%), and 22q1 produced 1.08 billion tons of raw coal, yoy + 10.3%. On April 20, the national Standing Committee proposed: first, we should give full play to the role of coal as the main energy. We will optimize approval policies for coal production and project construction, implement local responsibilities for stabilizing production and ensuring supply, and fully release advanced production capacity. Through nuclear capacity increase and new production, 300 million tons of new capacity will be added this year. Using market-oriented and legal methods to guide the operation of coal prices in a reasonable range. Second, we should promote the transformation of coal-fired power units and improve energy efficiency. The scale of transformation in the whole year exceeded 220 million kilowatts. Third, nuclear power should be developed in an orderly manner under the premise of strict supervision and ensuring absolute safety. We believe that the short-term coal output has increased rapidly, and the State Council’s first proposal to optimize coal production and the approval of project construction provide policy support for the long-term coal supply in the future. The downward movement of the coal price center in the future is the trend, but the implementation still needs to be observed in the short term.
The long-term low valuation range of power leaders, and the profit began to rise. We believe that the bottom profit of power companies is basically confirmed, and we will wait for the implementation of the long-term association in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: thermal power transformation ( Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) , China Resources Power, An Hui Wenergy Company Limited(000543) , Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) , Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Corporation Limited(600863) , Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) )., Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) ); New energy ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, CGN new energy, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Datang new energy); Hydropower ( China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ); Nuclear power ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ); , .
Risk warning. (1) The expectation of economic growth and monetary policy lead to great fluctuations in market style. (2) The direction of power marketization is determined, but the development time is difficult to determine.
