In 2022q1, the fund position proportion of agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery industry reached 2.24%, 69% of the historical quantile, and the fund position proportion of livestock and poultry breeding sector reached 1.975%, 75% of the historical quantile. In this cycle, the fund positions of livestock and poultry breeding sector are more balanced, and small and medium-sized breeding enterprises with market value have received more attention from institutions. At present, the core focus of the market has been advanced from the inflection point of pig price to the elimination range of fertile sows. With the continuous elimination of production capacity, the proportion of fund positions is expected to continue to increase. Summing up the historical cycle, the short-term pig price rebound in the downward stage of the pig cycle does not change the trend of capacity elimination, and continues to be optimistic about the pig breeding sector, focusing on the recommended combination [ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ], and the feed sector focuses on the high-quality leader Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ].
The proportion of positions in livestock and poultry breeding sector increased significantly in 2022q1
In 2022q1, the proportion of fund positions in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry increased significantly, and the livestock and poultry breeding sector increased significantly. In 2022q1, the fund position proportion of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry reached 2.24%, with a month on month increase of 0.86%, and the position proportion was about 69% of the historical quantile. In 2022q1, the fund position proportion of livestock and poultry breeding sector reached 1.975%, increased by 0.817% month on month, and the position proportion was about 75% of the historical quantile. In the first quarter of this year, the livestock breeding index rose by about 10%, which was relatively bright in the whole market, which was also the main reason for the rapid increase of the proportion of fund positions in the breeding sector. In terms of splitting, the increase in the proportion of fund positions in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry in the first quarter of this year mainly came from the contribution of the livestock and poultry breeding sector, which accounted for about 95%. We believe that with the further deregulation of the production capacity of the pig breeding industry, the proportion of fund positions in the later breeding sector still has room to be greatly improved.
2022q1 livestock and poultry breeding sector fund positions more balanced
In this cycle, the fund positions of livestock and poultry breeding sector are more balanced, and small and medium-sized market value breeding enterprises have received more attention from institutions. The top three enterprises in the livestock and poultry breeding sector with fund positions in 2015q1 are Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , with a total position proportion of 57.5%; The top three enterprises in the livestock and poultry breeding sector with fund positions in Q1 2019are Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , with a total position proportion of 70.6%; In the first quarter of this year, the top three enterprises in the livestock and poultry breeding sector with fund positions were Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , with a total position proportion of 66.5%. Overall, there are two significant changes in fund positions in this cycle: 1. More attention has been paid to small and medium-sized breeding enterprises with market value, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) the proportion of fund positions in the first quarter reached 14.9%, and the total market value of positions reached 6.8 billion yuan; 2. Compared with the previous cycle, the position proportion of leading enterprises decreased. The position proportion of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) funds in 2019q1 reached 38.4%, and that of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) funds in 2022q1 reached 30.6%. We believe that under the background of the sector rise of livestock and poultry breeding, this also reflects that the overall allocation of institutions to the livestock and poultry breeding sector is more balanced.
The time point of sector allocation in this cycle is ahead of the 13-15 year cycle and close to the 18-19 year cycle
After the in-depth study of the 2019 breeding cycle, the time point of this round of pig cycle fund allocation of livestock and poultry breeding sector is close to that of the previous round, which is earlier than that of 20132015. From 2013 to 2015, when the elimination rate of fertile sows reached about 15%, the proportion of fund positions in livestock and poultry breeding sector began to increase gradually, and with the upward turning point of pig cycle, the proportion of fund positions increased rapidly; From 2018 to 2019, when the elimination rate of fertile sows reached more than 5%, the proportion of fund positions in livestock and poultry breeding sector began to increase gradually. With the acceleration of production capacity elimination, the proportion of fund positions increased rapidly, and the pig price ushered in an upward inflection point in 2019q1. Since then, the proportion of fund positions in breeding sector began to decline significantly, and the investment opportunities in pig breeding sector also ended. In the first quarter of this year, the fund continued to increase its positions in the breeding sector. As of 2021q4, the elimination rate of fertile sows in the industry was about 5.1%, which was close to the time node of institutional positions in the previous cycle. We believe that in the context of in-depth learning in the industry, the core points of the market’s attention to the breeding sector have been advanced from the inflection point of pig price to the extent of the elimination of fertile sows. With the continuous elimination of production capacity, the proportion of fund positions still has great room for improvement.
Risk tips
1. The removal of breeding capacity did not meet expectations;
2. Cash flow risk of listed companies.
