Current investment tips:
The A-share Hong Kong stock market and Internet media sector are still depressed. SW media – 5.36%, significantly underperforming CSI 300 (- 4.19%), slightly outperforming gem index (- 6.66%), Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) + 1.46%. Hang Seng Index – 3.44%, Hang Seng technology index – 6.27%, Tencent Holdings – 8.83%, meituan – 8.24%.
With the advent of the first quarterly report, the Internet media as a whole continued to be depressed, but there were certain expectations, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) performed relatively well. The fundamentals of 1h21-1q22 are weak, and 2h22 is expected to improve. Under the background of slowing online penetration, the Internet is more affected by macro factors. Advertising, takeaway, online wine travel, e-commerce and other businesses (most of the revenue from short videos comes from advertising and e-commerce) suffer from repeated epidemics and weak consumption. The growth rate of 21q3 and 21q4 declines, and 22h2 is expected to improve; Since the game 21q4, the influence of juvenile anti addiction has appeared, and the approval of version number has been suspended, which has affected the launch of new products; Long videos are affected by supervision and less project scheduling, and elevator advertising and film and television cinemas are directly affected by epidemic prevention and control. Companies with better performance: Panax notoginseng benefited from the low base and the release of product profits Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) 22q1 achieved a net profit deduction of 196 million, with a year-on-year increase of 228.8%. The logic of profit margin improvement is being fulfilled. The company’s VR business has the ability of the whole chain from design and R & D to production and sales, and the short coke technology is leading. It is expected that the company will launch China’s first pancake ultra short focus VR all-in-one machine in mid June Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) profit margin benefited from the decline of panel price. Overseas market development and expansion of household appliances business continued to drive the growth of smart display business. Topic 2: after the release of the game version number, the good realization of short-term funds triggered a decline. Since the resumption of trading in 2018, the rise and fall of game stocks and PE fluctuations. We believe that the resumption of the release of the game version number is a key turning point for the industry to move towards normality, but the driving force for the continuous rise of the subsequent share price still depends on the performance sustainability and the double rise of performance valuation brought by scientific and technological innovation.
If the epidemic prevention and control is at an inflection point, how will the media layout? From the perspective of value investment, the current expectation has been relatively pessimistic, and the Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) valuation is low. At the same time, it reminds us to pay attention to the elasticity of zhaoxun media, the advertisement of new high-speed rail, and the filing time of Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) deep sea. The epidemic prevention and control has gradually stabilized, the marginal growth rate of new growth in Shanghai has slowed down, and relevant logistics policies have been relaxed. Referring to the expected inflection point of recovery after the epidemic for 20 years, it is obviously earlier than the inflection point of fundamentals. Three main lines of media offline scene recovery: 1) offline advertising: Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) from the perspective of value investment, the current market value is very attractive; The medium-term growth is driven by the point expansion of Cixin zhaoxun media, and there is great flexibility in the improvement of offline advertising; 2) Film and television theaters: Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) “deep sea” is expected to go online after the epidemic prevention and control, and verify the leading position of domestic animated films again; If the demand for movie viewing recovers, Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , cat’s eye entertainment will benefit directly. 3) Offline store of game trendy play: the offline revenue of bubble Mart accounts for nearly half, the growth of trendy play continues to be high, and Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) ip derivative card business is in a high growth channel.
The game version number has been released. There is no need to be overly pessimistic. Although the short-term funds fell after the release of the game version number, the rise and fall of game stocks and PE fluctuations since the resumption of trading in 2018. We believe that the resumption of the release of the game version number is a key turning point for the industry to move towards normality, but the driving force for the continuous rise of the subsequent share price still depends on the sustainability of performance and the double rise of performance valuation brought by scientific and technological innovation. At the beginning of 2019, the game version number was restored, and the game sector ushered in a brilliant performance from June 2019 to June 2020. The driving force behind it is the continuous exploration of the potential of the mobile game industry, the promotion of payment, the supply side reform and the increase of the market share of tier one and tier two companies, as well as the optimistic expectation of 5g cloud game application innovation and the expectation that the rise of short video traffic will bring game promotion dividends and drive the increase of the share of game content. After the version number is restored in 2020, we believe that the driving force of performance growth comes from China’s category expansion + going to sea, and the driving force of valuation improvement comes from the further improvement of the performance certainty of the head company, as well as the innovation of yuancosmic, arvr and other industries.
Target: Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , NetEase, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Tencent holdings, Kwai tech, Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413)
Risk tip: the product performance is lower than the expected risk, and the macro-economy is further downward risk.
