market analysis: knew it might happen sooner or later, but unexpectedly, it fell below 3000 points at once, breaking all fantasies and flukes. It can be said that it has directly announced that it has entered a new stage. I have said since the end of last year that it is very likely to reproduce 2018 this year. Now the similarity can be said to be 99%. I’ve been saying to stay away from index related things, whether it’s white horse, blue chip or institutional radicalism. Even if the index continues to fall, there is another game to participate in. There will be more opportunities for short-term profits than in the past two years, so the decline of the index is not a bad thing.
capital flow: turnover of the two markets was 896.9 billion, and the volume fell. What’s more sad is that the volume did not exceed 900 billion. It can be imagined how sad the next day will be at the level of the market index. The next reduction is a high probability. If this position can’t hold, 700 billion won’t be far away. In terms of capital style, today’s situation is a little special, so we won’t talk about the atmosphere, but one thing won’t change. The short-term leading demon stock is the mainstream style this year and the largest field of money making opportunities. As for the white horse and blue chip, there’s no play. All stand aside. This year, we pay more attention to the world’s martial arts, but we can’t break it quickly.
sector hot spots: only transition things, no main line:
Real estate infrastructure: it looks very bright today, from Langold Real Estate Co.Ltd(002305) to Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) to Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , but I’m sorry I can only treat it as a backdraft first. After all, it has been a deep correction for many days. Do you want to take the second wave of market? It’s not that easy.
Devaluation: as like as two peas in 2018, the only good harvest of this fall is even Huafang Co.Ltd(600448) , and the worse the market is, the more stable the theme of the transition is, but you know that the market will have a good chance of ending once it stabilizes.
Outlook: 1 First, let’s talk about the external factors that led to today’s sharp market decline: (1) US stocks fell sharply on Friday (2) the RMB continued to depreciate (3) a number of representative stocks in the sector were negative one after another, such as China Merchants Bank, such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) delaying the issuance of the first quarterly report. (4) The national epidemic situation, especially the epidemic data in Shanghai, continues to be high, which puts considerable pressure on China’s economy. One is enough to drink a pot, not to mention so many bad news all at once. No one can stand it. 2. The index is almost fused. There are 500 drop limits in the decline list. What else to say. Systemic risk / stock disaster / invalid trading day refers to a day like today. For 99% of the people involved in the stock market, it is luck to avoid it, and it is normal not to avoid it. It is like a sudden shower in summer, and everyone is caught off guard. This is a small probability event, so why comfort? This will not be the first time, nor will it be the last. 3. So the key question is how to avoid this continuous decline? In fact, it depends on your different choices in different years. I have been emphasizing several things for you since the end of last year. In fact, in my opinion, it is the same thing: (1) everything is very similar to 2018, both the external environment and the market itself, so I have no confidence in the index, and I am very opposed to the brainless singing about the index, although many people may be unhappy, This objective market is not that you can turn more when you sing more subjectively. (2) Based on the understanding of the market and why the market keeps falling, we should first understand what we can’t do. In my opinion, don’t touch large cap stocks such as white horse and blue chip. Many seemingly safe low-level stocks in terms of small tickets are not safe. (3) let’s talk about what we can do. Although it seems very difficult, my point of view remains unchanged: in this year’s market, the higher the price, the more opportunities, Dragon head demon stock is the key choice to be considered. In terms of rhythm, whether it is dragon head stock or other tickets, the response must be fast, the action must be fast, fast in and fast out, and you can’t love war.
