Position analysis of social service industry in 2022q1: Overall, it maintained over allocation, and the market value of heavy positions in the sector decreased 1). Based on the classification of Shenwan social service industry (excluding vocational education sector and Hong Kong stock target), a total of 30 listed companies obtained heavy institutional positions in 2022q1, with 682 heavy position funds / month on month + 80, with a total market value of RMB 42.585 billion / month on month – 29.01%. The market value of heavy position shares of funds in social service industry accounted for 1.32% of the total market value of heavy position shares of funds / month on month – 0.30pct, with an over allocation proportion of the circulating market value of Listed Companies in social service industry, Overall, it still maintains over allocation.
\u3000\u30002)。 From the perspective of industry comparison, the market value of heavy holdings in the social service industry ranks 17th among the 31 Shenwan industries, and the over allocation proportion ranks 5th On the whole, A-share funds are highly concentrated in the over allocation industry, with the proportion of power equipment / food and beverage / Electronics / medicine and biology in the top four, which is significantly different from other industries.
\u3000\u30003)。 From the point of view of the top five core targets of the fund’s heavy shareholdings, from the point of view of the top five core targets, excluding non consumer industry targets such as professional testing, and excluding non consumer industry targets such as professional testing, etc, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 888 . 09% / – 11.75% / + 5.26% / – 44.70% / – 10.86% Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) / Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) / Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) won the favor of heavy positions of the fund. Mainly affected by the repeated epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the first quarter of China, the business operations of duty-free / hotels / scenic spots were impacted to varying degrees, and the overall stock price in 2022q1 was under obvious pressure.
\u3000\u30004)。 From the social service targets held by the fund in heavy positions in recent six quarters, we selected a total of 31 representative companies in 9 sub sectors: tax-free, hotel, people’s clothing, leisure scenic spot, natural scenic spot, education, sports, catering and tourism. It can be seen that 21 / 7 / 3 companies have increased / maintained / decreased their positions month on month. Among them, the top five companies with heavy positions were Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) / jiumaojiu / China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) / Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) / Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , with a month on month increase of 28.29pct/3.71pct/2.28pct/1.76pct/1.25pct; The top three companies with heavy positions decreased month on month were Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) / Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) , down 4.12pct/1.26pct/0.24pct.
Investment advice
Phased results have been achieved in tackling the epidemic, cross-border tourism in all provinces is expected to resume, and the social service industry will usher in a recovery period. We suggest paying attention to four main lines of recovery logic: 1). Recommend Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group, which are at the bottom of the cycle / with stable long-term growth logic; 2)。 Recommend Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , targets of high-quality scenic spots benefiting from the increased penetration of leisure tourism and peripheral tourism, and pay attention to China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , Fosun tourism culture opened up by Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) tourism business and Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) , which benefit from the increased attention of ice and snow tourism; 3)。 Recommend Helen’s and jiumaojiu, which are expected to be repaired in the same store after the epidemic, have strong growth fundamentals, and are incubating new brands & new business forms. It is suggested to pay attention to Haidilao, Xiabu and Xiabu, the leading restaurant; 4)。 It is recommended to recommend the tax-free sector benefiting from consumption return and consumption upgrading and the human services sector with obvious anti cyclical attribute. It is recommended to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) .
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated outbreaks exceed the expected risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; The landing of new projects / products is less than the expected risk; Food safety risks; Risk of major teaching accidents.
