Last week (04.18-04.22), the CSI 300 index fell 4.19%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio fell 2.10%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products fell 0.32% / 3.51% / 2.48% respectively.
Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has fallen by 18.77%. According to the statistics of the key weight companies selected by us (listed in the market of 1.1 sector in detail), the beauty care industry portfolio has fallen by 24.69%, of which the medical beauty / cosmetics / personal care products have fallen by 24.78% / 25.12% / 24.16% respectively.
In terms of valuation, as of April 22, the price earnings ratio (TTM) of beauty care (801980. SI) was about 46.11x, which was at the quantile value of 35.92% in two years.
Core view
Affected by the recent outbreaks in many places, the retail sales of cosmetics and daily necessities decreased significantly in March. From January to March 2022, the cumulative value of cosmetics retail sales was 94.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; The cumulative value of retail sales of daily necessities was 183.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. From the value of that month, the retail sales of cosmetics in March 2022 was about 34.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%; The retail sales of daily necessities reached 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. By category of online sales: in March 2022, the online sales of beauty and skin care / body beauty / essential oil totaled 13.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%; The online sales of washing and cleaning agents / sanitary napkins / paper / aromatherapy totaled 7.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%; Online sales of cosmetics / perfume / beauty tools amounted to 3 billion 644 million yuan, down 26% from the same period last year. The online sales of hairdressing and hair care / wig reached 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%; The online sales of household / personal cleaning tools totaled 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%.
Since the beginning of the year, the epidemic in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption. At the same time, the urban survey unemployment rate has increased rapidly from 4.9% in October 2021 to 5.8% in March 2022, further affecting residents’ income expectation and purchasing power. With the gradual unsealing of shutdown areas in South China and East China, the overall economy and industry can recover steadily. We believe that the medium and long-term growth trend of medical beauty and cosmetics remains unchanged, and we continue to be optimistic about the leader of injection light medical beauty medicine and machinery Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) with prominent leading position in domestic anti allergy skin care products. Relevant targets include Furui medical technology, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc.
Key industry trends
Injection cosmetology is listed as the focus of quality control improvement of medical cosmetology in 2022; BASF, a giant of cosmetics raw materials, issued a shutdown warning; Tiktok began selling medical devices. Guangdong food and Drug Administration strictly investigated cosmetics testing institutions; Illegal sale of botulinum toxin for more than 10 million yuan was arrested, etc.
Announcement of key companies
in Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) 2021, the revenue reached 4.633 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.47% Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) 2021 revenue increased by 27.42% to 3.665 billion yuan, net profit increased by 31.97%; The annual sales volume of Yisi health is expected to be no less than HK $3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of no less than 35% Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) first quarter net profit was 357 million yuan, down 25.69% year on year Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) the net profit in the first quarter was 1.9574 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.14%; The net profit of chuang’er biology decreased by 63% year-on-year in 2021 Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) acquire 51% equity of Yierkang biology; Sihuan pharmaceutical plans to sell 100% equity of Xuansheng pharmaceutical; The exclusive agent of Sihuan pharmaceutical, bo’anrun hyaluronic acid, was approved Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) appoint Zhang Jianwei as the Secretary of the board of directors of the company Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) two shareholders intend to reduce their shares by no more than 7.4% in total; Perfect diary parent company receives delisting warning, etc.
Risk tips
Risk of changes in industrial policies; The terminal demand is lower than expected.
