The medium and long-term development plan of hydrogen energy industry was released. Hydrogen energy was identified as an important part of the energy system and a strategic emerging industry, which helped to improve the development expectation of the industry and boost market confidence. The quantitative development goal of the industry is stable, the system and standards are expected to be gradually improved, and the “game rules” and incentive mechanism of the industry are more clear. We suggest continuing to pay attention to companies with first mover advantages and technological advantages in each sub industrial chain.
One of the highlights of the plan: the status of hydrogen energy industry has been improved and its positioning has been more clear. The national development and Reform Commission released the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) on March 23. For the industry positioning, the plan proposes to take hydrogen energy as an important part of the national energy system, give full play to the advantages of hydrogen energy as an important carrier for large-scale and efficient utilization of renewable energy and large-scale and long-term energy storage, and promote the formation of a modern energy supply system with multiple complementarities and integration; At the same time, the plan proposes that hydrogen energy is a strategic emerging industry and the key development direction of future industries. In these terms, compared with the previous management of “hydrogen” as an industrial hazardous chemical, the status of hydrogen energy has been significantly improved, which helps to strengthen investors’ confidence in the development of hydrogen energy industry and boost the long-term expectation of the industry.
The second highlight of the plan: the quantitative target is stable, and the hydrogen production target of renewable energy is higher than expected. The plan puts forward specific development goals for some links of the industrial chain. By 2025, the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed and constructed; Hydrogen production from renewable energy has reached 100000 ~ 200000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieved CO2 emission reduction of 1 ~ 2 million tons / year. We believe that the goal of promoting the number of fuel cell vehicles is relatively stable, and the planning of “green hydrogen” is slightly higher than expected, because the market generally believed that the parity of green hydrogen cost was achieved in 2030, and then “green hydrogen” will be put on a large scale. Inspired by the medium and long-term planning of the industry and the goal of “double carbon”, we expect that local governments and state-owned enterprises will also accelerate the procurement of hydrogen vehicles and the implementation of “carbon reduction” applications. It is expected that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000 vehicles, and it is optimistic that the number of fuel cell vehicles can reach the scale of 90000 ~ 100000 vehicles in 2025. The demand of electrolytic cell corresponding to the green hydrogen production target in 2025 is about 2.5gw, and the relevant output value is expected to be close to 10 billion yuan.
The third highlight of the plan: rich and diverse application scenarios. Four application directions are proposed in the plan: 1) the “orderly promotion” in the field of hydrogen energy vehicles, mainly focusing on the promotion of hydrogen energy commercial models. In the field of vehicles, hydrogen energy will be a supplement to lithium batteries. 2) In the field of energy storage, “give play to the advantages of long hydrogen energy regulation cycle and large energy storage capacity”, create the integration of “scenery hydrogen storage” and “explore the potential for collaborative optimization of hydrogen energy across energy networks”. In the future, hydrogen energy will play a more flexible role as the carrier of energy conversion. 3) Promote the application of hydrogen energy in the field of distributed energy, and explore the R & D and demonstration of power generation peak shaving technology based on fuel cell in the renewable energy base. 4) “Explore the application of hydrogen energy as a high-quality heat source in industrial production and expand the application scale of hydrogen energy instead of fossil energy in industrial field”. In the future, hydrogen energy will play a key role in industrial carbon reduction and is an indispensable part of “carbon neutralization”.
Risk factors: slow progress of key technologies; The implementation of industrial support policies was lower than expected.
Investment strategy. The medium and long-term plan defines the important position of hydrogen energy in the energy system, which is conducive to boosting the market’s confidence in the long-term development of the industry; It also outlines the prospect of future industrial development. Lithium and hydrogen batteries in the automotive field are expected to complement each other; In the fields of energy storage, distributed energy and industrial carbon reduction, hydrogen energy will play a greater role and become an indispensable energy in the “double carbon” process. We suggest that we focus on companies that meet the expectations of our industrial plan, actively lay out in relevant sectors and have a first mover advantage: fuel cell stacks, systems related 6883 Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , related to green hydrogen production and application Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
