The number of falling stocks and limit stocks of A-Shares today reached the highest scale in recent two years, and the overall valuation level of Shanghai stock index is in the bottom range.
On April 25, A-Shares fell generally. The Shanghai stock index fell below the integer mark of 3000 points, closing down 5.13%, the largest one-day decline in two years, and the index hit a new low in 22 months. The gem index fell below the 2200 point integer mark, and the decline expanded to 34.72% during the year, approaching the largest decline in each year in history.
The collective cooling of science and technology topics, Hongmeng concept, smart government, digital currency, cloud games, NFT concept and so on. Leading technology stocks such as Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc. fell by more than 10%. Fruit chain leader Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) fell 11.3%, and the latest closing price hit a two-year low, with a retreat of more than 75% compared with the historical high.
Compared with the previous trading day, excluding the new shares listed today, the market value of A-Shares decreased by 4.27 trillion, which is equivalent to evaporating the market value of two Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . Compared with the end of last year, the market value of A-Shares decreased by more than 20 trillion.
As of the latest, only Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , have withdrawn from the ranks of trillion compared with the end of last year, the number of A-Shares with a market value of more than 100 billion decreased from 149 to 105, a decrease of 29.53%.
According to the statistics of securities times · data treasure, today, there are 4600 stocks floating green in the two cities, and 769 stocks falling within the limit, both of which are the largest in the past two years Jiangsu Dewei Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(300325) , Julong Co.Ltd(300202) , Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) , Boomsense Technology Co.Ltd(300312) , ST China submarine, Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Bode Energy Equipment Co.Ltd(300023) and other stocks encountered a 20cm limit.
Institutional analysis pointed out that market concerns about the radical interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the re severity of the mainland epidemic and the continued weakness of the RMB are the main factors for the recent decline in the A-share marketP align = “center” the probability of short-term rebound after large-scale limit decline is higher
In the history of a shares, such a large-scale decline in a single day is rare. According to the statistics of data treasure, there were 39 times (including this time) in the history of more than 500 daily limit drops. The most recent one occurred in February 2020, with a record number of daily limit declines, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.72% on the same day. Then, after more than 500 daily limit falls occurred in the past 38 times, how will the follow-up performance of a shares?
According to the statistics of databao, after a large-scale drop in the limit, the Shanghai stock index rose 23 times the next day, with a rise probability of 60.53% five trading days later and the following month, the probability of the Shanghai stock index rising fell to less than 50%; Within half a year, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising continued to decrease, less than 30%. It can be seen that A-Shares have a high probability of short-term rebound after experiencing a large-scale limit decline tide, and this sign weakens over timeP align = “center” a-share valuation is in the bottom range
P / E ratio below 2638
From the perspective of valuation level, the current valuation of A-Shares has further moved down after substantial adjustment in the early stage. According to the statistics of databao, Shanghai Composite Index’s latest P / E ratio is 11.93 times, which is 28.3% of the quantile in the past decade, and is located in the relatively bottom area; The price to book ratio of Shanghai stock index is 1.3 times, which is at the level of 9.5% of the quantile in the past decade and at the bottom range
Compared with the five stage lows of the Shanghai stock index in the past 20 years (244091 points in 2019, 2638.3 points in 2016, 184965 points in 2013, 166493 points in 2008 and 998.23 points in 2005), the overall P / E ratio of the Shanghai stock index is lower than that in 2016, 2008 and 2005, and the P / B ratio is lower than that in the five stage lows.
In the current market context, how do institutions view the future market China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that the medium-term perspective continued to maintain the judgment that A-Shares were building a U-shaped bottom area. On the one hand, the credit policy has been or will be gradually confirmed at the end of the medium-term; On the other hand, market valuation and sentiment indicators have entered the bottom area of the market, and there is still the possibility of continued decline in the future, but in terms of odds, the space has been relatively limited.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the important internal and external meetings are about to be held, and the weakness is grinding to the bottom or coming to an end, waiting for the oversold rebound signal. Short term balanced allocation, after the oversold rebound signal appears, steady growth and growth are expected to return to the main line.
From the situation at the end of today’s trading, some stocks obtained the main funds, increased their positions against the market, and finally closed red. According to the statistics of data treasure, the share price rose on April 25. At the same time, there were 15 stocks with a net inflow of more than 10 million yuan. Among these 15 shares, the value of three stock markets, including Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) exceeded 50 billion yuan. Leading grain and oil companies Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) gained the main position of 17 million yuan in late trading, with a closing increase of 3.2%.
The highest amount of main position increase in the late trading was Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) . The stock turned red from green in the late trading and finally closed up 0.34%. Followed by China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) , the main position was increased by 46 million yuan in the late trading, and the share price rose by the limit on the same day. At the end of the trading, Ceepower Co.Ltd(300062) , Beihai Gofar Chuanshan Biological Co.Ltd(600538) , Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , Hunan Development Group Co.Ltd(000722) , etc. gained the main position increase and the share price rose by the limitP align = “center” the State Council issued a document proposing to further release the consumption potential
It is noteworthy that the policy continues to release good news. After hours on April 25, the general office of the State Council issued opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption . The opinion mentioned that we should focus on the main body of the insurance market and strengthen the rescue of enterprises thoroughly implement the tax reduction, tax rebate and fee reduction policies to support manufacturing, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households
promote the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy by reducing interest rates, fees and other measures guide financial institutions to optimize credit management, provide financing support to industrial enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, and avoid industrial loan restriction, loan withdrawal and loan interruption. We will continue to implement the policy of periodically reducing the premium rates of unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance.
The opinions put forward that for enterprises that do not lay off staff and reduce staff, we should implement the stable post return policy of unemployment insurance. Clean up the unreasonable price increase in the power transfer link. Take practical and effective measures to stop arbitrary charges, apportionments and fines. Encourage the qualified areas to conduct regular nucleic acid testing for employees in retail, catering and other industries, and provide subsidies to enterprises in disinfection and sterilization. We will implement relief and support measures for food and beverage, retail, tourism, civil aviation, highway, waterway and railway transportation and other special industries.
