Last week’s performance: from April 18 to April 22, all shenwanyi industries except textile and clothing fell, among which non-ferrous metals, steel and real estate fell the most, with declines of 8.08%, 9.05% and 9.20% respectively; Only textile and clothing increased by 4.09%; Power equipment ranked sixth from the bottom, with a decrease of 6.90%.
The top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the top ten stocks of the new energy sector last week last week last week are: the Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) (1.52%), Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) (0.94%), Guangdong Greenway Technology Co.Ltd(688345) (0.41%). The top ten stocks that fall in the top ten of the top ten stocks are: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) %, Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co.Ltd(300457) (- 14.69%), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) (- 14.57%), Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) (- 14.42%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
On April 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of industry and informatization in the first quarter. The conference pointed out that China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has promoted 10.33 million vehicles in total, breaking the 10 million mark, and has become an important force leading the electric transformation of the global automobile industry. Since this year, the scale of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has reached a new high. In the first quarter, the cumulative production and sales of 1.293 million and 1.257 million vehicles were completed respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year. At present, the market penetration of new energy vehicles has reached 19.3%, an increase of 11.4 PCT year-on-year At the same time, the cumulative sales of Chinese brand new energy passenger vehicles increased by 1.5 times year-on-year, higher than the overall growth rate of the market. In the total sales of passenger cars, Chinese brands accounted for 75.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 2pct, showing a vigorous development trend. Generally speaking, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development, and is expected to maintain a high-speed development trend this year. At present, the impact of the epidemic on the supply side of new energy vehicle enterprises has gradually weakened. Under the guidance of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, Shanghai has promoted a number of key industrial enterprises to operate smoothly and resume production in batches and in an orderly manner. Up to now, 70% of 666 key enterprises have resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is also increasing. SAIC, Tesla and other complete vehicle enterprises have continuously realized the offline of complete vehicles, and relevant parts supporting enterprises have also returned to work one after another. Automobile enterprises have improved their productivity and capacity utilization. It is expected that the prosperity of the automobile industry will gradually recover with the weakening of the impact margin of the follow-up epidemic.
Under the current general trend of vehicle electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Passenger Transport Federation, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million units in 2022, while the sales volume in China is expected to reach 5 million units. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain is expected to fully benefit from the general trend of increasing penetration of electric vehicles. Lithium battery industry chain: it is suggested to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate in the lithium resources sector, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . With the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the improvement in the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power batteries may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profitable repair. The relevant targets are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Related targets of lithium battery accessories: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . Related targets of new energy vehicle sector include: traditional vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , new power vehicle enterprises Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile.
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
Photovoltaic: on April 20, the National Energy Administration released the statistical data of the national power industry from January to March.
In terms of installed capacity, as of the end of March, the installed capacity of power generation in China was about 2.4 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed power generation capacity was about 320 million KW, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the newly installed capacity of 1-3 kV is 13.2gw, an increase of 7.9gw over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 147.89%.
From the perspective of the completed amount of investment in power projects, from January to March, the completed investment in power projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 81.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Among them, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation was 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%. From the perspective of China, in the first quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of photovoltaic power generation ranked first in all power generation modes, both from the installed capacity data and the completed amount of power engineering investment. China’s photovoltaic demand showed a trend of not light in the off-season.
According to the photovoltaic data, the installed capacity in China in the first quarter was mainly distributed, accounting for about 70%. Looking forward to the future, distributed photovoltaic actively promoted the construction of distributed photovoltaic with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence and the policies of the whole county. Distributed projects still probably accounted for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022. Overseas, according to gaixi consulting, in March 2022, the component export was 14.5gw, with a year-on-year increase of 85.1%, and the export amount was US $3.72 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 102.4%; Q1 exported 41.3gw in total, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5%. The cumulative export amount was US $10.61 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 123.4%. The module export data verified the high demand for overseas photovoltaic installation. Looking forward to the future, with the end of the rush for installation in India, India’s photovoltaic installation demand may return to normal growth. However, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European terminal electricity price soars, superimposing the demands to get rid of Russia’s energy supply, and the European Photovoltaic installation demand may usher in explosive growth.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the release of production expansion by large Chinese manufacturers, superimposed by the strong demand in the lower reaches. From the supply side: according to the silicon branch, China’s polysilicon output in March was about 54600 tons, a month on month increase of + 4.4%. In Q1, China’s polysilicon output was about 159000 tons, and the import volume in the same period is expected to be 22000 tons. China’s total silicon material supply was about 181000 tons, lower than expected. Compared with the silicon material demand corresponding to the silicon wafer output of 72gw, the silicon material supply was slightly insufficient. According to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, it is estimated that the output of polycrystalline silicon in Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in China will reach 18 / 18 / 200000 tons respectively in 2022, and the annual overseas polycrystalline silicon supply is expected to be about 100000 tons, with a total silicon supply of about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation demand of about 225gw.
From the demand side, the off-season demand for Q1 photovoltaic in 2022 is not light. As of March, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises in 2022 exceeded 50gw, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high. Looking ahead to Q2, China suggests paying attention to the construction and commencement of large bases; Overseas, with the end of the rush for installation in India, India’s photovoltaic installation demand may return to normal growth. However, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European terminal electricity price soared, superimposing the demand to get rid of Russia’s energy supply, and the European Photovoltaic installation demand may usher in explosive growth. Combined with the supply and demand pattern, the overall new supply of Q1 silicon material in 2022 is still insufficient compared with the new demand in the downstream. The mismatch between supply and demand of silicon material is maintained, the price of silicon material maintains a slight upward trend, the battery chip link is in the stage of price game, and the downstream component manufacturers and terminals are in a heavy wait-and-see mood. With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand. Looking forward to April, China: according to the silicon industry branch, there are 1-2 enterprises whose polysilicon output is affected, with a month on month decrease of about 2% – 5%, but two enterprises have expanded their production to provide increment in the same period. It is estimated that China’s silicon material output in April will be 54 Jiangling Motors Corporation Ltd(000550) 00 tons; Overseas: the import volume in April is affected by the epidemic situation, maintenance and international factors. The silicon branch is expected to be flat or slightly reduced month on month. To sum up, the supply decreased, but the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises remained high in the same period. Therefore, it is expected that the silicon material supply is still in a relatively tight state in April, and the silicon material price will continue to rise slightly in the short term.
From a long-term perspective, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: statistical briefing on China’s wind power hoisting capacity in 2021 has been officially released by the wind energy professional committee of China Renewable Energy Society. In 2021, China’s wind power installed capacity reached a new high, with 15911 new installed capacity (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), with a capacity of 55.92 million kW (hoisting capacity: refers to the installed capacity after the wind turbine manufacturer delivers goods to the wind farm site, the construction unit completes the hoisting and installation of all parts of the wind turbine and completes the installation acceptance or static commissioning within the statistical period), an increase of 2.7% year-on-year; Among them, the newly installed capacity of onshore wind power is 41.44 million KW, accounting for 74.1% of the total newly installed capacity, and the newly installed capacity of offshore wind power is 14.48 million KW, accounting for 25.9% of the total newly installed capacity. The cumulative installed capacity exceeded 170000 units and the capacity exceeded 340 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%; By the end of 2021, there were 17 complete machine manufacturers with new installed capacity in China’s wind power market, ranking among the top five, with a total market share of 69.3%. From the perspective of competition pattern, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , vision energy and Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) whether in terms of new installed capacity or cumulative installed capacity, the market share of Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , vision energy and Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) have ranked among the top three steadily in recent years. However, it is worth noting that the market share of leading enterprises has gradually declined. In contrast, new wind energy enterprises such as Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , their new installed capacity of offshore wind power has increased rapidly, and the market share of cumulative installed capacity has further increased, Although new entrants missed the high subsidy bonus period of offshore wind power, they still showed a momentum of rapid development, which means that the development space of offshore wind power market has not been fully released. It is expected that the wind power market can continue to maintain a high boom in 2022.
In the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve.
In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is not as expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
