On April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.13% to close at 292851 and the Shenzhen composite index fell 6.08% to close at 1037928. Only 147 stocks in the two cities rose.
Although the overall market sentiment is pessimistic, many sectors, including banking sector, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing sector and engineering consulting service sector, have shown strong pressure resistance.
multiple factors lead to low market sentiment
Affected by multiple factors, the Shanghai stock index opened low in the morning on April 25, and then fluctuated around the weak range of Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) 00 points to close at noon. The opening trend in the afternoon was still weak. It broke down the integer mark of 3000 points at about 13:30, and continued to fluctuate at a low level to close.
Wang Meiting, a researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that there are three reasons for the sharp decline in the A-share market today. First of all, different from the recent radical interest rate hike in the United States, China’s economic policy level has stood still for the time being. The market believes that the interest rate gap between China and the United States will be further inverted in the future, leading some capital to turn their attention to overseas markets. Secondly, there are concerns about the impact of the epidemic. After Shanghai, the epidemic situation in Beijing has been sporadic, causing a certain degree of negative emotion. At the same time, Nanchang and other large cities have taken epidemic control measures, and the control time around Shanghai is expected to be further extended. The macro-economic situation in the second quarter is not optimistic. Thirdly, the hot spots on the market are cold, the uncertainty of China concept stocks still exists, science and technology stocks and new energy stocks are affected by the international situation, and the optimistic expectations of the infrastructure chain and real estate chain supporting the market in the early stage have not been fulfilled, resulting in the relatively weak performance of the market and unable to drive the market.
Hu Bo, manager of Rongzhi investment fund of private placement paipai.com, added that the recent frequent issuance of new shares in the market had an impact on market liquidity; The performance of some growth stocks in the annual report and the first quarter report was lower than the market expectation, which caused investors to worry about the sustainability of growth and triggered a double kill in valuation and performance; The funds are concentrated in some small sectors for heating, the hot spots are not sustainable, and the expectation of interest rate reduction has failed, which has consumed the enthusiasm of the overall market to do more, and also affected the market sentiment of the market to a certain extent.
It is worth mentioning that although the market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, some sectors also show strong pressure resistance. Taking Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing (Shenwan) as an example, the index of this sector fell by 2.55% throughout the day. Within the sector, Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) , Daodaoquan Grain And Oil Co.Ltd(002852) two stocks were closed on the trading limit at the opening. In addition, large state-owned banks (the index fell 1.84% all over the world) and engineering consulting services (the index fell 1.78% all over the world) also fell slightly.
Wang Meiting believes that the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing sector is relatively compressive, mainly due to the expected warming of the “rush” of the pig cycle, and the market generally expects the bottom of pork at the end of June. However, the market has predicted and rose in advance. Recently, pig futures have risen sharply, driving the rise of the whole industry. Secondly, the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) rise and the warming of food security issues have driven the mood of the whole industry chain of seed industry, feed, breeding and processing. For example, some time ago, the upside down of prices outside China has significantly opened the space for the price rise of many varieties in China, which is conducive to the leading enterprises of local seed industry.
commodities and other industries have good fundamentals
For the prediction of the future trend of the A-share market, Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the recent approach of the Shanghai index to the 3000 point range is the result of multi factor resonance. This point is a relative bottom area, but it still needs time to confirm the bottom of the market.
According to Hao Xinming, generally speaking, there will be signals at the bottom of the market. In terms of individual stocks, corporate profit growth will appear in advance. One reason for today’s poor market performance is that the first quarterly report is lower than expected. At present, it will take time to see the turning point of upward performance. In terms of valuation, after falling, the current market valuation is at the bottom, but there is still room from the historical low. In terms of capital, when the market bottom appears, the trading volume is generally low, but it still maintains a high trading volume. In terms of sentiment, with the release of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the market is in a position to verify the business cycle. From the current data, the situation is not optimistic under the influence of factors such as the epidemic and geopolitics. It is expected that in the case of oversold in the future market of a shares, the short-term is expected to rebound, but the downward trend of the middle line will not be reversed in a short time. Relatively speaking, the consumer sector is relatively resistant to decline in the economic downward cycle.
Hu Po believes that although the current A-share market has been fully adjusted, the bottom regional characteristics are obvious, and the short-term pessimism does not affect the long-term investment value of A-shares, we still need to wait patiently for liquidity problems and tail risks to be fully exposed. We can pay attention to the industries that comply with the policy support direction, benefit from the wide credit and fiscal policy, the large financial sector with undervalued value, and the consumption recovery sector.
Wang Meiting said that from a fundamental point of view, considering that the currency is only loose but not tight, the interest rate difference between China and the United States and other factors are gradually digested, and the impact of new negative news in the short term is limited. In addition, the market has fully expected the economic situation and real estate in the second quarter, and the risk has been digested in advance. It is expected that the future market of A-Shares will fluctuate broadband at the current point.
“As the tight balance pattern of global bulk commodities has not changed, steel, coal, aluminum, chemical fertilizer and grain are tight, prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the fundamentals continue to be optimistic. It is expected that the resource industry and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) will be more prosperous.” Wang Meiting said.
