A-Shares fell sharply, and several “brothers and sisters” of “stocks” and “funds” joined hands on the hot search
On April 25, the Shanghai index fell more than 5% and fell below 3000 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell more than 6%, and the gem index fell more than 5.5% and fell below 2200 points; The three major stock indexes hit new lows in the year. More than 4600 stocks in the two cities fell, nearly 700 stocks fell by the limit, more than 3000 stocks fell by more than 7%, and less than 200 stocks were popular in the two cities.
On the disk, Shenwan’s 28 industries were “completely annihilated”, the two cities’ sectors were green across the board, the military industry, nonferrous metals, semiconductors, chemicals, coal, petroleum and other sectors led the decline, and the wine making, medicine, automobile, insurance, real estate and other sectors all weakened.
Recently, A-Shares continued to decline. From a comprehensive market point of view, it was caused by the agglomeration effect of multiple internal and external negative factors, including geographical situation factors, pessimistic investment sentiment, uncertain economic growth expectations, uncertain epidemic changes, etc analysts believe that A-Shares are still in the bottom grinding period and will be in the process of weak adjustment in the medium term. The market has relatively limited room for decline in the future and will gradually improve in the future
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fall into what
nearly 700 limit drops
The market opened low throughout the day, and the decline further expanded in the afternoon. The three major indexes fell by more than 5%, and the Shanghai index closed below 3000 points to 292851 points, a new low since mid June 2020; The Shenzhen composite index fell 6.08% to 1037928 points; The gem index fell 5.56% to 2169 points.
more than 4600 stocks in the two cities fell, nearly 700 stocks fell by the limit, more than 3000 stocks fell by more than 7%, and less than 200 stocks were popular in the two cities the whole day turnover of the two cities was nearly 900 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 4.397 billion yuan.
On the disk, Shenwan 28 industries were “completely annihilated”, and the sectors of the two cities were green across the board, military industry, nonferrous metals, semiconductors, chemical industry, coal, petroleum and other sectors led the decline, , while brewing, medicine, automobile, insurance, real estate and other sectors weakened.
Several heavyweights fell sharply, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) all fell by more than 5%
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how about shareholders
“Hi mention” multiple hot searches
A shares fell on the microblog hot search, and several hot search topics such as “stock market”, “fund” and “Shanghai index fell below 3000 points” were on the list.
Investors are laughing at themselves while wiping tears.
Some started to laugh at themselves: “I paid a month’s salary today, but A-Shares were unwilling at that time and fell directly for two months.” “The falling of A-Shares stimulates consumption, because compared with the daily losses of the stock market, consumption doesn’t feel expensive…”
Some started a slogan: “come on, friends, copy the bottom.” “I sincerely hope that we are all like a shares, the younger we live.”
Some smiled at life: “we should donate thousands of yuan to poor mountainous areas.” “Li Daxiao: don’t panic when the Shanghai index falls below 3000. You should calmly face it and deal with family relations. Life is more important than stocks.”
Some joked: “13 years ago, in the 3000 point financial defense war, my father died; 13 years later, I also died in the defense war. It’s really full of loyalty.”
Some analyzed the situation: “the decline of A-Shares is close to the” fuse threshold “, and there should be some substantive rescue measures tonight.”
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why did it fall sharply
multiple bad intertwined
Recently, A-Shares have continued to decline. From a comprehensive market point of view, it is due to the agglomeration effect of multiple internal and external negative factors.
Guo Shiliang, an independent financial commentator, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that the loss of 3000 points in the Shanghai index is more related to geographical situation, pessimistic investment sentiment, uncertain economic growth expectations, uncertain changes in the epidemic situation and other factors epidemic has been repeated, which has brought great uncertainty to the market, especially the worry and expectation of economic data in the second quarter. In addition, the A-share financing pressure increased significantly, the market “heavy financing” situation continued to strengthen, which was not very friendly to the market investment environment. Many market funds chose to vote with their feet.
Zuo Jianming, general manager of Shanghai Xiaoyu assets, said in an interview with the reporter of international finance that the superposition of multiple factors has led to the rise of short-term market caution on the one hand, the epidemic spread in some areas, resulting in restrictions on people flow and logistics, so investors are worried about the economic growth in the second quarter. On the other hand, according to statistics, by the end of March, the market value of securities and gold companies’ positions fell sharply, causing investors to worry that group funds are reducing their positions in addition, the continuous reduction of the central parity of the exchange rate has also raised doubts about OTC funds. Considering that the long-term foreign capital flowing into China has the possibility of reverse return under the background of zero interest rate difference between China and the United States.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that from the perspective of external factors, the pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has accelerated. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that interest rates may be directly increased by 50 basis points in May and announced the reduction of the table. Due to the different monetary policy objectives between China and the United States, the United States is mainly anti inflation, while China is mainly to stabilize growth. Recently, the RMB has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, with a rapid pace of depreciation. In China, there have been outbreaks in many cities, and there is no turning point in Shanghai, which has also aroused the concern of many investors.
Niu Chunbao, founder of Wanji assets, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news, “today’s sharp decline is the emotional vent of worrying about the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the economy, but it generally belongs to the bottom range. The most pessimistic time is the most optimistic time.”
Yu Shaobo, chairman of investment management and financial commentator, said in an interview with the international finance news that recently, A-Shares have faced many repressive factors, such as the external Russian Ukrainian war, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the turmoil in the US stock market, internal concerns about the economic downturn and the intensive disclosure of the annual report and quarterly report. The market is cautious or skeptical about the support of the 3000 point integer level, Combined with the impact of stop loss or financing sector, a variety of forces are intertwined, resulting in a sharp decline in the market.
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how about RRR reduction
liquidity or no shortage
on april 25, the RRR reduction was officially implemented for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. The interest rates of many large banks and joint-stock banks for 3-year and 2-year certificates of deposit and some “characteristic deposits” products were lowered as scheduled, generally at 0.1 percentage points
The people’s Bank of China announced on April 15 that it decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). On this basis, for urban commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and agricultural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, an additional 0.25 percentage point will be reduced.
However, the favorable landing of RRR did not stop the downward trend of large a shares.
In this regard, Zuo Jianming analyzed that the central bank has indeed delivered more than 500 billion long-term cheap funds to the market by reducing the reserve requirement by 0.25%, which can provide strong help for real enterprises. However, from the perspective of recent capital prices, it is at the low point of this year and even nearly a decade, that is to say, current market is not lack of liquidity with the further acceleration of the Fed’s interest rate hike in May, it also limits the need for easing in other countries.
He further stressed that the adjustment of stock market generally needs to go through three cycles, and the first wave is the force of on-site institutions. Since the end of 2021, many public funds have subscribed for their own products in a high profile, but according to the statistics in the first quarter of this year, the scale of equity funds has shrunk by nearly trillion; The second wave is the policy force, which releases a friendly signal to the market by encouraging the entry of long-term funds, adjusting the rhythm of IPO, limiting short selling tools, and even relaxing unnecessary regulatory behavior; The third wave of traders completely “lie flat”, and the trading volume gradually shrinks to 1 / 3 to 1 / 4 of the peak, so that the market naturally has the power of emptying
“From the current situation, A-Shares are transitioning from the second stage to the third stage, so they will still be in the process of weak adjustment in the medium term.” Zuo Jianming said.
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how do I go
is still in the bottom grinding stage
Looking forward to the future, institutional people express their views quickly.
Kou Wenhong, fund manager of Zhongrong fund, said that at the current time point, market has relatively limited falling space in the future and will gradually improve in the future in the long run, the direction of China’s economic transformation and the rise of science and technology is very clear. The current decline is only a small episode in the great historical process. From the perspective of valuation, at present, the valuation of many industries such as new energy, new energy vehicles, automobiles, machinery, military industry, medicine, food and beverage has returned to a low level, and some even returned to the level at the end of 2018, which has investment value. Therefore, there is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current point in time.
Guo Shiliang believes that stabilizing the trend of A-share market still requires substantial market rescue measures, including stopping IPO, reducing stamp duty, establishing stabilization fund and so on. We cannot allow the stock market to continue to fall irrationally, which can easily lead the market to fall into systemic risk however, from the perspective of the market index, A-Shares near 2900 have gradually entered a relatively safe investment area, the bottom of valuation and the bottom of policy have gradually established, and the market is waiting for the establishment of the bottom of the market.
Yu Shaobo believes that under the current weak market situation, the RRR reduction is not enough to provide support for the technical or financial aspects, and the stock market still needs the process of shock and bottom grinding at present, it is close to the bottom area, and there will not be much room for future decline. It is suggested to focus on undervalued potential stocks on bargain hunting. After more sufficient adjustment in the first half of the year, it may appear in May or June.
YueKai Securities said, at present, the market is in the downward stage of profitability, and the surging and repeated epidemic is the main reason for constraining the economy at present, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is still at a low level, hovering between 2.7% – 2.8%. The so-called fist cannot be hit on cotton. Before the epidemic improves, the implementation of policies will also have a rhythm. Therefore, A-Shares are still in the bottom grinding period.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that currently focuses on three directions: first, in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the steady growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate steady demand and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.); Second, for the middle and lower reaches of consumption with more early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; Third, the risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
