The first quarterly report of 2022 fund just disclosed shows that after excluding money market funds, the total size of the fund decreased by 5% month on month, of which the size of equity funds decreased for the first time in nearly three years.
The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that while the scale of the fund decreased month on month, the Matthew effect of the public offering industry was significant. A small number of head funds at the top of the food chain accounted for the main share of the whole market, while a large number of other companies accounted for less than 9% of the total share.
Although the head fund ate almost all of the cake, the scale expansion also brought challenges to the fund investment. In the weak market environment in the first quarter of this year, the difficulty of large-scale operation was more prominent, which also made it almost difficult to use the most effective hedging means of position management, and the head fund's income in the first quarter was all negative.
it is worth mentioning that the data also showed that fund managers slightly increased their bond positions in the first quarter. This operation once made three funds take the top and second place of partial equity funds in 2018. At that time, some funds even defeated 99% of fund managers through short positions in stocks
has weak profit making effect, and the scale of partial equity funds decreased significantly
According to Tianxiang data, as of April 22, 2022, a total of 148 fund companies have disclosed the fund report for the first quarter of 2022. The fund market scale has slightly decreased to 24.79 trillion, a decrease of 0.99% month on month. If money market funds are excluded, the total fund scale is 14.82 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5% month on month. The month on month decline in the total size of the fund is largely due to the fact that the performance of equity funds, which account for a large proportion, has been challenged by this year's A-share market. A large area of losses in the first four months of the year affected the confidence of fund holders.
According to Tianxiang data, the current scale of stock funds is about 2.26 trillion yuan, down 10.78% month on month; The scale of mixed funds was 5.23 trillion yuan, down 12.67% month on month; The scale of bond funds was 6.81 trillion yuan, up 3.51% month on month. The largest increase in scale was fof fund, with a month on month increase of 9.74%; The largest decrease in scale was other funds, with a month on month decrease of 30.49%.
The decline in the total scale of the fund during the first quarter can reflect the current situation in terms of the number of fund liquidations, the failure of fund issuance, fund redemption and so on. Data statistics show that the number of fund liquidations during the first quarter of this year was as high as 41. At the same time, the phenomenon of fund issuance failure and issuance difficulties has become increasingly prominent. Data statistics show that a total of 386 new funds were established in the first quarter of this year, raising a total of 273.8 billion yuan. The issuance scale decreased by 74% year-on-year, and the average issuance share of the fund issuance market hit a new low in recent five years.
Obviously, in the context of the general decline of heavy position stocks, the performance of fund managers has become the key to the size of the fund. According to the market performance of the top ten funds in 2021 in the first quarter of 2022, nine funds lost more than 10% in the first quarter, with a maximum decline of 24.83%.
industry is divided between the rich and the poor, and the total share of 84 public offerings is less than 9%
After the A-share market and fund market encountered a weak market environment, head fund companies further formed an advantageous position in the whole market competition.
According to Tianxiang data, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, in the scale statistics excluding currency and financial debt base, there were 8 fund companies with a scale of more than 500 billion, accounting for 34.73%; The fund has a market share of 1.6-5.4 billion, representing a market share of 1.6-2 billion, which is also more serious than that of the fund with a market share of 1.6-5 billion.
Surprisingly, the remaining 45.10% of the market share is shared by 132 small and medium-sized fund companies, of which 22 fund companies with a scale of 100300 billion account for 24.68%; 26 fund companies with a scale of 50-100 billion accounted for 11.89%; At the bottom of the food chain of the fund industry is a large number of fund companies below 50 billion, and these 84 fund companies account for less than 9% of the market share in total.
In addition, in the equity fund market that fund companies attach most importance to, the share of equity fund market highlights the cruel industry differentiation. Equity products are the key for fund companies to obtain rich management fee income. According to the scale statistics of equity funds, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, there were three fund companies with a scale of more than 400 billion, accounting for 19.33%; There are six companies with a scale of 250400 billion, accounting for 24.28%, which can reflect that the Matthew effect of the equity fund market is more serious. These nine head fund companies account for 43.61% of the market share.
The remaining 56.39% of the market share is shared by 139 fund companies, of which 12 fund companies with a scale of 100250 billion account for 27.88%; 12 fund companies with a scale of 50-100 billion accounted for 10.89%; The remaining 115 fund companies with a scale of less than 50 billion accounted for 17.62%.
large scale, difficult investment, total loss of head fund in the first quarter
To some extent, the difficulty of investment after the expansion of fund scale is also the behavior of the foundation people to take the initiative to pay the bill.
After the fund boom brought about by the "calf market" of A-Shares in the past three years, the rapidly expanding fund scale has also brought challenges to the investment of fund managers. Although the head fund company has obtained significant advantages in scale, the scale can contribute amazing management fee share to the fund company and attract more excellent fund managers to join. The profitability of some large-scale fund companies even exceeds that of many A-share listed companies, However, in the weak market environment in the first quarter of this year, the operation difficulty caused by too large scale has become an important factor for many fund companies to lag behind in revenue ranking.
According to the statistics of Tianxiang data, as of the end of the first quarter of 2022, the quarterly yield statistics of 148 public fund companies (weighted according to the fund size after excluding the Monetary Fund) showed that the overall performance of fund companies with a management scale of more than 100 billion was poor, all of which were negative returns, of which the quarterly yield of Societe Generale fund was - 0.79%, ranking first; Compared with the head public offering of super large capital scale, among the fund companies with a management scale of less than 100 billion, CAITONG fund ranks first with 0.89%.
Overall, 134 fund companies in the whole market had negative returns in the first quarter, and only 14 companies generated positive returns. Most of these fund companies that obtained positive returns in the first quarter were small and medium-sized public offerings with less managed funds.
"The rapid growth of scale may bring investment pressure to fund managers." Zhang long, chairman of Boshi fund equity investment committee, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Chinese reporters of securities companies that the investment boundary may face some problems due to the large scale. First, it is more difficult to adjust the dynamic of fund portfolio, and it is difficult to obtain income from the medium and short-term industry rotation and the company's stock price band, Second, the fault tolerance of fund investment industry allocation and stock selection is greatly reduced. Portfolio adjustment requires higher winning rate, longer time and higher transaction cost.
Zhang long once made a statistics. Among the 145 fund managers with a management scale of more than 10 billion, the fund managers who meet the five-year performance annualized rate of return of more than 15% and rank in the top 1 / 3 every year. Among the top 20 fund managers with a management scale, only 7 fund managers have excellent long-term performance, accounting for 35%; Among the top 50 fund managers in management scale, only 11 fund managers have excellent long-term performance, accounting for 22%; Among all fund managers with a management scale of more than 10 billion, only 11% have excellent long-term performance.
buy less stock and win? Why is the head fund unwilling to choose the time
It is noteworthy that, corresponding to the selection of individual stocks, position control has become the key operation of fund managers' investment this year, but why has position control become a difficult problem?
"Position timing can be the practice of small funds. It is easy for small ships to turn around, and it is difficult for large funds to choose timing." a fund manager of Qianhai Kaiyuan believes that position control itself requires fund managers to have strong timing ability, but most fund managers are actually unwilling to choose timing, which is very difficult in itself. In addition, when the funds managed by mainstream fund managers or head fund managers become larger and larger, it is even more difficult to choose the timing of positions.
Li Xiaoxing, a star fund manager with a management scale of nearly 50 billion, has always maintained a high position operation. He also believes that if you manage large-scale funds, you can only distinguish good stocks of the company, pay attention to the quality of the company, and do position timing is a unreliable thing. A considerable part of position timing is related to luck.
Although the timing of positions is difficult, the fund operation in the first quarter of this year still shows that fund managers hope to avoid the risks of the stock market through some position control. According to Tianxiang data, the overall positions of mixed funds in the whole market remained almost unchanged in the first quarter of 2022, of which the average comparable positions of partial stock mixed funds were 68.47%, a decrease of 2.94% compared with the previous period; The average comparable position of partial debt hybrid funds was 22.61%, an increase of 4.59% over the previous period. Combined with the fact that the market fell sharply in the first quarter, it can be seen that most fund managers took a stable attitude towards the A-share market and raised the bond position in the hybrid fund.
Raising bond positions and reducing stock positions are almost the most effective strategies for fund managers to deal with the weak market this year, which can be seen from the operation of the annual champion of partial equity funds in 2018 in the first quarter of 2022. The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that taking Boshi Xinrui fund, the champion of the partial stock hybrid fund in 2018, as an example, the total position of the top ten stocks of the fund was only 5.16% by the end of the first quarter of this year, with a decrease of 50% compared with the top ten stocks in the previous quarter, which means that the fund manager should disperse the concentration of the stocks he holds as much as possible.
At the same time, Boshi Xinrui fund also significantly increased the position of bond assets. As of the end of the reporting period, the bond position held by the fund was as high as 85.32%, up four percentage points from the end of the fourth quarter of last year. While the bond position increased, the fund lowered the stock position in the portfolio.
Based on the core operation of position control, when many funds lost 10%, 20% or even 30% in a quarter, Boshi Xinrui fund lost less than 3% in the first quarter of this year. As of April 24, 2022, the yield loss of this fund product was only 3.32%.
"The best risk prevention effect may be the most direct position control." Shi Bo, chief investment officer of Nanfang fund, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Chinese reporters of securities companies that from the perspective of the A-share market during the first quarter of 2022, the more important strategy to reduce fund portfolio risk is position control, but there are great differences in the risk reduction strategies adopted in different periods of time. For example, like last year's market, only one or two industries performed well, It is far better than the whole market. At this time, it may become more important to improve the accuracy of individual stocks and industries. However, as a common combination of risk control, position control is the most important.
In fact, the above operation logic has been significantly verified in the fund performance ranking in 2018, that is, buying less stocks can win.
The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that the top three performance of partial equity funds in 2018 were Boshi Xinrui fund, Jinying Xinrui fund and Changsheng Shengchong fund, with annual returns of 9.87%, 9.06% and 8.31% respectively. In the environment of general decline of individual stocks and general loss of fund performance, the core factor for the above three funds to achieve the top three performance is to control their stock positions and significantly increase their bond positions. According to the periodic report disclosed at that time, the bond positions of the three funds in the above-mentioned Guanya quarter reached 53%, 96% and 98% respectively during the year. A large proportion of bond positions made the three funds greatly avoid the risk of individual stock decline, so as to win the performance ranking.
In particular, Changsheng Shengchong fund had a maximum bond position of nearly 98% and a minimum stock position of 0 during 2018, which made the Fund ranked third in the performance of partial stock funds in the whole market that year. In the market in the first quarter of 2022, Changsheng Shengchong fund increased its stock position to 43% and its bond position to 23% in the first quarter of this year.
The above 43% of the stock positions have become a major source of losses of the fund since the beginning of the year. As of April 24, the yield loss of the fund in the year exceeded 11%. However, when 43% of the stock positions brought losses of more than 10%, this means that those fund managers with stock positions of more than 70% and 80% have suffered losses of more than 20% or even 30% in the year.
fund's top ten heavyweight stocks generally fell? Volatility is the essence of equity investment
However, in a market where fund holders generally prefer to be aggressive, fund managers are reluctant and unlikely to choose position control, which makes most fund managers still maintain normal high position operation, although it generally brings losses of 20% or even 30% during the first quarter.
In the normalized high position operation, fund managers obviously hope to deal with the market through the strategy of selecting individual stocks, although the effectiveness of this strategy is significantly reduced compared with the effect of position control. So, which stocks will fund managers mainly select to deal with the market during the first quarter of this year?
According to Tianxiang data, in the first quarter of 2022, the top three companies holding the total market value of public funds (active partial equity funds) were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) . Fund managers still prefer Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , with more than 1400 funds holding these stocks. In addition to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , the top ten fund heavyweight stocks in the first quarter fell during the reporting period, of which Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell the most, with a decline of 30.36%, and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell the second, with a decline of 26.78%. Since April 2022, the overall performance of the top 10 heavyweight stocks has been weak, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) falling by 18.93% and 14.12% respectively.
Although there may be a huge pullback without position selection, the confidence of fund managers in long-term investment has not declined.
Zhang Kun, deputy general manager of e fund, said bluntly in his first quarter report that the reason for the failure of many investors is that they are too concerned about the current operation of the stock market, and the human reflection system pays too much attention to changes, so that it is difficult for it to notice things that remain constant. The stock price, like the weather, is always changing, unpredictable and difficult to grasp, while the enterprise value, like the climate, is always changing slowly and regularly. Although in the short term, it seems that it is the weather that catches the eye and determines the environment, in the long run, it is the climate that really determines the environment of a region.
The top flow fund manager stressed that although the short-term market faces many difficulties, it also provides a very attractive price for long-term investors. It is believed that the free cash flow accumulated by enterprises every day will be reflected in the accumulation of their value, and the increasing enterprise value will eventually be projected into the growth of their market value.
"The volatility of the market over the past year has hit the confidence of investors and began to doubt equity investment. In fact, large market volatility is the essence of equity investment." Wang Keyu, star fund manager and director of investment and research of Hongde fund, believes that the volatility of the market over the past year has hit the confidence of investors and began to doubt equity investment. In fact, large market fluctuations are the essence of equity investment. On the basis of strict screening of investment targets, holding time is constantly prolonged to distinguish the risk of market fluctuations and investment losses. In the abnormal downward fluctuation stage of the market, it often means a better buying opportunity for fund managers; When the market is booming, maintaining the necessary caution is also conducive to improving the long-term yield.
