Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : market sentiment has dropped to near the low point since 2018, and the medium and long-term allocation cost performance of the current index is prominent
Judging from the structural characteristics of transaction congestion, the recent capital outflow mainly comes from hot money and retail investors. Judging from the valuation, redemption application and position, the position adjustment and position reduction of institutional funds are in the end, and the market sentiment has dropped to the low point since 2018. The dynamic P / E ratio of the main indexes has also fallen below the 25% quantile since 2010, of which the main blue chip index is below the 10% quantile since 2018. The long-term fundamentals of China’s economy will not change. The medium and long-term allocation cost performance of the current index is prominent.
It is expected that the steady growth target for the whole year will remain unchanged. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the disclosure of quarterly reports, the three factors of interest rate increase of the US dollar as scheduled, and the three main lines of infrastructure, real estate and consumption are expected to usher in a synchronous recovery in May. The medium-term repair market is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to stick to the main line of steady growth and firmly layout the varieties with low valuation and expected low.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : currently in the layout period from the end of policy to the end of performance
① so far this year, the net value of the fund has fallen by more than 20%. In 2008, 11 and 18, the monetary policy was tight, while this year’s macro policy was loose, similar to that in 12 and 16 years. ② Historically, the market bottomed out in the following order: High Dividend Stocks broad-based index heavy fund stocks. Heavy fund stocks have fallen more recently, and the valuation of growth stocks has been at a historical low. ③ Drawing lessons from history, there is a layout period from the end of policy to the end of performance. At present, it is at this stage. First, focus on the main line of steady growth, such as finance, real estate and new infrastructure (more flexible), and gradually pay attention to the consumption related to economic recovery.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the market has entered the bottom seeking stage, and the allocation value is expected to gradually appear
The market has entered the bottom seeking stage, and the allocation value is expected to gradually appear. The investment style is in the sector with low-risk characteristics, and the layout is related to the cycle and consumption of steady growth.
Stock selection idea: stocks with undervalued value, performance and definite performance. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets with stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks; 2) The direction of the government’s investment in electricity and power grid construction; 3) the reverse of the dilemma, the core concerns the supply side of the deep optimization: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, Q2 concerns about consumer building materials and steel investment opportunities.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: building a U-shaped bottom and bargain hunting layout
From the medium-term perspective, we continue to maintain the judgment that A-Shares are building a U-shaped bottom area. On the one hand, the policy bottom and credit bottom may have been roughly confirmed, and the subsequent profit bottom will be gradually completed in the medium term; On the other hand, the market valuation and sentiment indicators have also entered the bottom area of the market. Although there is still the possibility of continued decline in the follow-up, the space in terms of odds is relatively limited. Therefore, from the medium-term perspective, although the market bottom grinding process may continue to repeat, investors do not need to be too pessimistic and should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom.
In the market bottom grinding period, investors should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom. From the medium and long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, but should consider defensive counterattack and bargain hunting layout. Defensive counterattack: 1) high dividend varieties such as urban commercial banks, agricultural commercial banks and hydropower stocks are still the first choice for bottom warehouse configuration. 2) from the experience of the epidemic, the mandatory sectors such as food processing have excess returns at the peak of the number of confirmed cases, and they have relatively countercyclical profit fluctuations in the period of profit decline. 3) Textile and clothing is a typical mandatory consumption sector. At the same time, the expectation of RMB devaluation is strong in the near future, with both attack and defense in the short term. Bargain hunting layout, post epidemic repair and steady growth overweight: 1) post epidemic recovery can be carried out at the same time on the production side and the consumer side. The production side repair mainly focuses on logistics, automobile, etc. the consumer side repair aims at the required consumption ( Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and food processing) + local consumption (Hong Kong stock catering, leisure food, medical services, film and television, etc.) with reasonable valuation, faster repair speed and higher certainty. 2) The real estate industry is still in a structure in which the policy continues to work, but the data has not yet warmed up. It is expected that the market’s expectations for policies will continue until the real estate data clearly pick up. 2) Infrastructure construction has been clearly launched, and the prosperity of building materials is guaranteed.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : A-share sentiment index “bottoms out”, waiting for a clearer turning point
Current market characteristics: 1) from the perspective of trading, the corresponding turnover rate of recent market transactions has been close to about 2%, which is at a historical low, and the scale of net reduction of industrial capital has also decreased significantly; 2) In terms of valuation, after adjustment, the equity risk premium of CSI 300 is close to twice the standard deviation above the average again, and the valuation close to the low point in March 2020 is more extreme; 3) From the perspective of market behavior, the stable growth style with relative performance in the early stage showed signs of making up for the decline; 4) In terms of policies, the central bank, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, safe and other departments have recently made positive statements on the recent economic situation and capital market environment, and resolutely maintained economic and market stability.
We believe that at present, the bottom characteristics have been partially shown in terms of policy, valuation, capital and behavior signals. Combined with the current growth environment, it may take time to wait for a clearer turning point. We still maintain the judgment that the current market is in the “bottom grinding” period. Although the short-term market may still be repeated, the opportunities are gradually greater than the risks in the medium and long term, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value. We pay attention to the bottom-up stock selection opportunities in the consumption field, and we may still need to wait for the opportunity to create growth style.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as the industrial chain related to the stable demand of traditional infrastructure and real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.); 2) For the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the market pessimistic expectation has been largely reflected in the stock price and will be transferred from overall adjustment to structural differentiation
The recent rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has once again disturbed the market. However, from the following three aspects, we believe that it is not a systemic risk, but more a short-term emotional impact: 1) foreign capital is not far away, but still flowing in. 2) China’s policy is “self dominated”, and the depreciation of RMB does not constitute a restriction on monetary easing.
The follow-up monetary and credit policies are expected to be further relaxed to provide strong support for stabilizing the macro-economic market. 3) With the continuous promotion of the resumption of work and production of enterprises and the gradual easing of the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain, exports are expected to pick up and continue to support the demand for RMB, and the pressure of RMB devaluation will also be weakened.
According to a number of indicators, the market pessimistic expectation has been largely reflected in the stock price. In the future, the market will shift from overall adjustment to structural differentiation. It is suggested to focus on three directions. 1) Real estate infrastructure: the direction of policy easing has been clear. The recent rebound in the epidemic has further increased the space and intensity of subsequent policy easing. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Real estate, infrastructure, banking and other sectors are both security and policy driven. 2) Consumption of core assets: on the one hand, it benefited from the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation. On the other hand, the share price and valuation of the sector have been at a low level, and the internal and external uncertainties can be attacked and retreated. 3) In May, the “new half army” may usher in a wave of repair window: the “new half army” has been greatly adjusted since the beginning of the year. Subsequently, with the passing of the first quarterly performance window, the easing of the supply chain impact, the landing of the 50bp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and combined with the judgment of the leading indicators of our “new half army” timing framework, in May, we thought that the “new half army” was expected to usher in a wave of repair window, and it was suggested to select from bottom to top in combination with valuation and performance certainty.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : from mid and late April to early May, A-Shares may usher in the starting point of the upward cycle
We believe that the current positive signals are emerging. The positive growth rate of new medium and long-term social finance is higher than expected, and the valuation position constitutes the most important signal of the bottom of a shares. The improvement of the epidemic situation in some regions, the ongoing resumption of production and work, and the continuous rebound of logistics index create conditions for the commencement of steady growth projects. With the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the export increase effect brought by RMB depreciation may be more conducive to the expectation of economic improvement, and the marginal upward increase of net holdings of industrial capital is also conducive to market stability.
In a word, from mid and late April to early May, A-Shares may usher in the starting point of the upward cycle. At present, they may be in the bottom area. The follow-up main line can focus on the accelerated construction of new and old infrastructure, policies and demand, and some optional consumption driven by RMB devaluation.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the failure of the expectation of interest rate reduction will not hinder the follow-up force of the policy, and the pattern of shock bottoming remains unchanged
In March, with the overall weakening of economic data, LPR did not reduce, the expectation of interest rate reduction failed, and the overseas Federal Reserve accelerated the tightening of monetary policy and continued to suppress a shares. China’s monetary policy continues to be restrained, and the short-term liquidity is reasonable and abundant. The tone is expected to remain unchanged in the short term. The “steady growth” policy is expected to make further efforts in new and old infrastructure, promotion fees and stabilizing real estate. In response to the market’s concerns about the steady growth policy, it is expected to be responded to at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April, thus boosting risk appetite. Therefore, in the shock bottoming, it is suggested to continue to maintain a balanced allocation and pay attention to the investment clues of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April.
Industry configuration: continue to exceed the allocation of stable growth and consumption style, gradually lay out the main line of growth in the medium and long term, continue to exceed the allocation of stable growth and consumption style, and gradually lay out the main line of growth in the medium and long term. In the third week of April, the market fell again. The Shanghai stock index and gem index fell by 3.87% and 6.66% respectively. The performance of Shanghai stock exchange continued to be stronger than that of gem. By industry, the consumption style is relatively resistant to decline, among which textile and clothing, beauty care and food and beverage are more dominant; The chain of steady growth has retreated significantly, and the real estate, steel, coal, building materials and other industries have performed poorly; Growth industries, except communications, are relatively resistant to decline, and other industries are mediocre. Looking forward to the last week before the May Day holiday, the probability of A-share risk appetite rising significantly is still low before the national epidemic turns significantly better and the inflection point of external US bond yields goes down. Therefore, it is suggested to maintain balanced allocation and focus on the policy signals that may be released by the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April.
YueKai Securities: A shares are still in the bottom stage, and there is still room for financial real estate
At present, the market is in the downward stage of profitability, and the surging and repeated epidemic is the main reason for constraining the economy. At present, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is still low, hovering between 2.7% – 2.8%. The so-called fist cannot be hit on cotton. Before the epidemic improves, there will be a rhythm for the implementation of policies. Therefore, A-Shares are still in the bottom grinding period.
In addition, at present, it is in the window period of annual report performance and quarterly forecast performance disclosure, and superimposed with the impact of external factors (Russia Ukraine conflict and repeated epidemic), we suggest to continue to pay attention to three clear main lines: 1) there is still room for financial real estate. Although the real estate growth rate continued to decline in the economic data released in the first quarter, before the arrival of the current credit inflection point, the steady growth sector is indeed the direction with the least resistance at present. Continue to pay attention to the low value real estate with strong expectation of policy marginal relaxation, banks and new and old infrastructure with expectation of stabilizing the real estate chain. 2) High performance boom sector. At present, it is in the intensive performance disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, and the market will return to the verification of fundamentals. With the continuous promotion of the policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, we can pay attention to the high growth main line with sufficient adjustment and core competitive advantages for a long time, and focus on the cost-effective sectors and stocks in the semiconductor and new energy tracks. 3) Benefit from the consumer sector under the narrowing of the scissors gap. The disturbance of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still the focus of the market’s attention to inflation, and the geopolitical conflict has brought global inflation. Returning to the A-share market, the cyclical sector represented by bulk commodities may be close to the top under the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. In the long run, we can pay attention to the consumption sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology brought by the increased demand under the epidemic repair, as well as the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries brought by the pig cycle.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : continuous shaking and bottom grinding, with blue chips dominating
Shock grinding bottom, blue chip value is dominant. Since April, the characteristics of market stock game have been obvious. Under multiple disturbance factors outside China, investors have become cautious in trading. At the overseas level, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the risk of global economic stagflation, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates has increased again, and even the expectation of a single interest rate increase of 75 basis points appears; In terms of the epidemic situation, some enterprises have not yet resumed normal production. In the future, the recovery of market risk appetite needs to wait for more fundamentals and policy signals to be verified, such as the trend of the epidemic, the progress of enterprises’ resumption of work and production and the setting of the Political Bureau meeting in April. Before that, A-Shares will still be dominated by “shock and bottom grinding”.
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