Looking back on the A-share market last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a weak shock pattern as a whole, and the small and medium-sized index fell relatively large. In terms of the market on Friday, the Shanghai index once recovered 3100 points, but it fell again at the end of the day. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index weakened even more, and the decline was at a glance.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the current market situation is similar to the sawing bottom stage in the second half of 2018. There will still be repeated shocks near 3000 points. Remember to pay attention to the rhythm in operation before the trend of the middle line is reversed, it is not suitable to participate in heavy positions. In the short term, you can find the panic point in the session and copy the bottom in batches. You must not chase the high too much, especially the non leading varieties in the sector. When they follow the trend, there is a great risk of chasing the high . Recently, active consumer stocks still have the opportunity to repeatedly absorb low prices, and oversold track stocks can also pay due attention to the rebound opportunities.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that judging from the structural characteristics of transaction congestion, the recent capital outflow mainly comes from hot money and retail investors, judging from valuation, redemption and position, the position adjustment and position reduction of institutional funds are in the end, and the market sentiment has dropped to the low point since 2018, close to . At present, the medium and long-term allocation cost performance of the index is prominent. It is suggested to continue to follow the main line of steady growth and firmly layout the varieties with low valuation and expected low valuation.
In terms of the future market, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that market has entered the bottom seeking stage, and the allocation value is expected to gradually appear . At present, the difficulty of stock pricing is that the uncertainty of economic growth and credit path leads to the fuzziness of profit expectation and the decline of risk preference. With the hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve, the slowdown of Global trade activities and the impact of the epidemic, the market has begun to enter a new bottom seeking stage.
The agency further analyzed that short-term trading pendulum is extremely difficult to grasp, but in the fog of consensus, we should be more optimistic . More pessimistic expectations have been included in the dynamic valuation of the A-share market. The valuation of Shanghai Stock Exchange is close to the limit of 2018, and the valuation is basically flat from the low point of the epidemic impact in 2020, indicating that the medium and long-term allocation value is beginning to appear with the adjustment of the market compared with the bottom of the previous two rounds of valuation, the value of national securities is deeply underestimated .
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) indicates that the spring of valuation has been pressed to the minimum . The A-share market continued to fall last week under the multiple shocks of repeated epidemic, weak economy and less easing than expected. Looking back on the market since this year, the main A-share index has fallen by more than 20% year to date, of which the contribution of valuation contraction is more than 80%. By comparison, it is found that the valuations of most indexes are at a new low since 2019. From the perspective of risk appetite, the risk premium of A-Shares has accelerated upward recently. The risk premium of Shanghai stock index is close to the bottom of the market in 2018, and the gem index is close to the level in mid-2020 . Although the short-term impact is still there, the market has very limited room for decline.
The agency further said that the main line of post epidemic repair and price rise the macro conditions for the short-term market to get out of the bottom are insufficient, and attention is paid to the structural opportunities of the industry . First, if the epidemic situation is repaired, pay attention to the manufacturing industry (automobile, machinery, integrated circuit and biomedicine) and offline consumption related to the resumption of work and production; The second is food and chemical fertilizer under the price rise effect caused by supply shortage. In addition, continuing the recommended industrial chain of real estate and infrastructure development in the previous report, real estate is still in the stage where the fundamentals have not been improved and the policy underpinning will continue. Infrastructure is the main force supporting the economy at present, and pay attention to infrastructure related buildings and building materials.
Guosheng Securities believes that after the rapid decline of the market in the short term and stepping back on the bottom of the box since July 2020, the short term will step back on the low point in March again, which may open a new round of rebound at the double bottom, which can actively track the low absorption opportunities of individual stocks in sectors with high attention to market funds. On the whole, under the general stable tone of market liquidity, after a long-term decline, the market valuation has entered the bottom area of long-term shareholding, and pay attention to the low absorption opportunities after the epidemic and the impact of peripheral markets on A-Shares in the short term .
In the macro aspect, the investment promotion strategy said that positive signals are emerging, the growth rate of new medium and long-term social finance is higher than expected, and the position of valuation constitutes the most important signal of the bottom of A-Shares . With the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the export increase effect brought by RMB depreciation may be more conducive to the expectation of economic improvement, and the marginal upward increase of net holdings of industrial capital is also conducive to market stability.
In a word, from mid and late April to early May, A-Shares may usher in the starting point of the upward cycle. At present, they may be in the bottom area. The follow-up main line can focus on the accelerated construction of new and old infrastructure, policies and demand, and some optional consumption driven by RMB devaluation.
In terms of operation strategy, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) mentioned that it pays attention to the policy oriented financial real estate, the expected improvement of medicine, textile and clothing, machinery, computer, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc the industry pays attention to four directions : first, from the perspective of policy orientation, industries such as real estate, construction, banking and securities companies guided by policies to maintain growth, as well as thermal power and hydropower driven by rising demand for electricity deserve attention;
Second, from the perspective of expected improvement, epidemic prevention related medicine, mandatory consumption, computers, textile clothing, machinery and automobiles benefiting from exchange rate depreciation deserve attention;
Third, from the perspective of performance catalysis, non bank finance, real estate, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries are expected to make profits upward;
Fourth, from the perspective of oversold and high boom industries, CXO in medicine and vaccine, military industry, semiconductor equipment and materials, upstream of new energy vehicles and other industries can also be concerned.
Specific industry configuration, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that continued to focus on three main lines and two themes . Main line 1: continue to super allocate and stabilize the growth chain, focusing on the whole chain of building materials, building decoration, steel, cement, real estate (such as glass, real estate service / development, home, automobile, etc.) and relevant opportunities such as banks.
Main line 2: the recovery of residents' consumption is uncertain. It is suggested to pay attention to the three directions of valuation repair, price rise and travel chain, pay attention to the valuation repair of food and beverage, medicine and biology, and grasp the opportunities related to the price rise of mandatory consumer goods (planting industry, chemical fertilizer, dairy products and condiments) and the recovery of service travel chain.
Main line 3: the main line of medium and long-term growth is still possible. It is suggested to adjust the positions of power equipment and electronics every year. In terms of theme, it is suggested to allocate around the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
In addition, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that in the short term, the previously strong real estate and finance may need to be adjusted because the monetary easing is lower than expected on the direction of subsequent market rebound, in addition to continuing to bargain hunting, high dividends and epidemic related categories .
Throughout the year, he held high score red and blue chips and bought epidemic diseases on bargain hunting, such as special drugs and special vaccines; And steady growth, such as central enterprises' real estate and green power, are still the main line of adjusting the layout; 1) It is suggested to pay close attention to the military main engine plant and engine segments with low institutional positions and unaffected demand in growth stocks, as well as the comprehensive domestic alternative segments to Japan, South Korea and the European Union in other growth stocks.
2) for investors with absolute excess return: consumption, food and other epidemic spread + anti inflation or performance opportunities; After the market adjustment, with the landing of China's interest rate and standard reduction, there may be opportunities for small and medium-sized market capitalization growth stocks to rotate.
3) from the perspective of supply chain security, if the external situation conflicts or disturbs the global supply chain in the long term, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities of domestic substitution in the subdivided fields such as semiconductor materials and chips.
4) at the same time, with the western modernization arms race in the process of peripheral conflicts, the military industry has benefited from the three-year pilot closing year of state-owned enterprise reform and the market-oriented reform of pricing mechanism also deserve special attention.
