Today (April 25), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. The overall trend in the morning was weak, and there was no counterattack in the session. The overall situation showed a pulsed downward pattern, with a clear view of the weakness.
From the disk point of view, the full screen is green, the industry and concept sectors reproduce the general decline market, and the local profit-making effect is poor. It is worth mentioning that there were signs of market protection in the morning of the big financial market, but it was a pity that it failed to reverse the decline; The engineering construction sector is also ready to move. In addition, the recent devaluation of the RMB exchange rate is good for the textile manufacturing sector.
In addition, affected by Indonesia's announcement of banning the export of edible oil and edible oil raw materials, the concept stocks of edible oil rose sharply on the 25th. As of press time, Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) , Daodaoquan Grain And Oil Co.Ltd(002852) etc. rose sharply.
Guosheng Securities believes that after the rapid decline of the market in the short term and stepping back on the bottom of the box since July 2020, the short term will step back on the low point in March again, which may open a new round of rebound at the double bottom, which can actively track the low absorption opportunities of individual stocks in sectors with high attention to market funds. On the whole, under the overall stable tone of market liquidity, after a long-term decline, the market valuation has entered the bottom area of long-term shareholding. In the short term, pay attention to the low absorption opportunities after the epidemic and the impact of peripheral markets on a shares.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] big finance
For the banking sector, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that banking stocks still have great prospects. Under the background of tightening international liquidity and China's steady growth, if the effect of steady growth is confirmed by data, such as stabilizing investment growth, the overall market will be conducive to value style. Before confirmation, in the tug of war between the epidemic and external adverse factors and the expectation of stable growth, the market fluctuates in the style rotation, and there are still opportunities for high-quality bank stocks with undervalued value and regional banks with stable growth.
For brokerage stocks, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the current valuation of the securities sector deviates from the fundamentals, the valuation is at a historical low, and the repair of the undervalued financial sector under the main line of "steady growth" is still worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: (1) leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and gradually increasing market share in the securities sector; (2) In the era of wealth management, it is recommended to have differentiated competitiveness in the field of Internet wealth management and benefit from the development of fund subsidiaries.
In addition, Huachuang securities mentioned that when the current valuation is low and the fundamentals are stable, the allocation value and defense advantages of the insurance sector are still prominent. We believe that it is not a bad thing that the extreme situation forces the industry to settle down and think. All companies eradicate the depression in the dilemma and find innovation space to highlight the encirclement, which will jointly promote the industry to a new stage of high-quality development.
Kaiyuan Securities believes that the RRR reduction is good for securities companies, and the new regulations on life insurance sales are better than expected. At present, the valuation of leading targets of securities companies is still low. The landing of RRR reduction will boost confidence in steady growth, and the overweight of subsequent steady growth policies is expected to continue to benefit securities companies. In addition, the new regulations on life insurance sales are more relaxed than the first version, which is better than expected.
[Topic 2] benefits of exchange rate depreciation
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the capital market is mainly in two ways: first, the change in the behavior of foreign-funded institutions is directly reflected in the capital flow, which occurred when the expectation of exchange rate depreciation was formed; The second is to indirectly affect asset prices through monetary policy adjustment. We believe that the monetary easing represented by the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates may have come to an end. On the one hand, the adjustment pressure of the bond market remains unchanged, and the only way to resist capital outflow may be to expand the interest rate gap between China and the United States as much as possible; On the other hand, for the equity market, the impact of depreciation is relatively weaker than that of the bond market. Due attention can be paid to the price rise caused by the rise of import prices and the profit improvement opportunities of some export industries.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) mentioned that the devaluation of RMB is good for the textile manufacturing sector. The devaluation of RMB is conducive to improving the competitiveness of export products of enterprises in the sector, enabling enterprises to get more orders and driving the growth of exports, especially under the background of the gradual reduction of order return with the improvement of the epidemic in Southeast Asia. In addition, it helps to delay the textile manufacturing sector to a certain extent. Before the epidemic, due to the continuous rise of China's labor, environment and other production costs, including the continuous slowdown of export growth, Even negative growth.
The agency further analyzed that companies with high proportion of foreign sales revenue and more assets such as US dollars are expected to benefit significantly. According to the annual report of 2020, according to the annual report data of 2020, according to the annual report data of 2020, among the companies in the industry, the companies with foreign sales revenue accounting for more than 40% of the company's total revenue in the industry are: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) 77.53%), Zhejiang Bangjie Holding Group Co.Ltd(002634) (accounting for 72.24%), Shanghai Challenge Textile Co.Ltd(002486) (accounting for 72.00%), Shanghai Sanmao Enterprise (Group) Co.Ltd(600689) (accounting for 71.19%) At the same time, it's a form that can be seen in the form of a form that can be seen at the end of a battle in the form of a . 23%), Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (accounting for 47.69%), Zhejiang Jiaxin Silk Corp.Ltd(002404) (accounting for 47.39%), Ningxia Zhongyin Cashmere Co.Ltd(000982) (accounting for 41.11%), Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) (accounting for 40.57%). These companies expect foreign currency income to grow when settled in RMB.
[Topic 3] edible oil concept
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) mentioned that on April 22, Indonesian President jokowido announced after the cabinet meeting that the export of "all edible oil and edible oil raw materials" in the country would be stopped from April 28, and the recovery time would be determined. In terms of policy strength, it can be called the "strictest measure", because Indonesia's palm oil plays an important role in global production and Trade: the global monthly trade volume of vegetable oil is about 7 million tons, of which Indonesia's palm oil accounts for 35%, which is similar to the cut-off of Ukraine's wheat, corn and sunflower oil exports at the beginning of the Russian Ukrainian conflict. Important buyers including India and China can only look for Malaysia Supplement palm oil from Thailand and other producing areas, or purchase other oil products to replace it.
In terms of policy continuity, Indonesia has started a series of price regulation actions since the beginning of the year, including the price subsidy DPO of edible oil in China, the price ceiling in China but cancelled it one month later, and the compulsory DMO in the Chinese market (export bound to Chinese sales) but cancelled it one week later and raised export tariffs. Before, the market was guided by volume and price, but the intensity was far less than this time.
Therefore, the agency further analyzed that considering the performance of the Indonesian government since this year, the policy may not last too long, but we should pay attention to the imitation of other major producing countries and the panic hoarding of major consumer countries, resulting in abnormal price fluctuations.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) market time factor is more important. The key time point is repeatedly mentioned from May to June. In addition to the recovery of Malaysian labor, there is also the centralized supply of soybeans in South America and the centralized listing of Chinese rapeseed, which allows the price to "fly freely" before this time. We maintain the judgment of marginal improvement of global vegetable oil supply from May to June, but the uncertainty is increasing.
[theme 4] project construction
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) mentioned that at present, the cost side is still high and the delivery is affected by the epidemic. The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is still under pressure in the short term. We continue to wait for the fundamental turning point. Considering the resumption of work after the epidemic is alleviated and the early price rise is transmitted to the terminal, we pay attention to Q2 or the turning point. In the medium term, the risks of the real estate chain are gradually released, and the room for the rise of raw material prices is limited. With the enhancement of the scale effect of high-quality leaders (national capacity and channel construction), channel reform (overweight small B or C), product structure optimization (category expansion or system integration), the endogenous growth momentum still exists, and the impact brought by upstream and downstream industrial factors may be gradually weakened. In the long run, the clearing of the consumer building materials market will be accelerated, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the competition pattern will be further optimized. Continue to recommend the leader of the first echelon of the strong HENGQIANG, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal of the second tier leader who underestimates the value.
In addition, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that they are optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure investment in 2022. In terms of companies, it is suggested to pay attention to several main lines: (1) undervalued construction central enterprises: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , with high dividend rate and real estate business valuation and repair space; Q1 order exceeds the expected China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , with more BOT assets; (2) Building transformation: Transformation of green power operation Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and transformation of chemical industry China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ; (3) High growth local state-owned enterprises: focus on Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) etc; (4) Steel structure: it is expected that the prosperity will continue to improve, such as the steel structure processing leader ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) with new breakthroughs in BIPV.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the central bank had issued 23 anti epidemic financial measures to give advanced support to real estate, urban investment and construction enterprises. In March, infrastructure continued to rise. Although the downward trend of real estate has not been reversed, the positive effects are accumulating. From the perspective of Zhengzhou, which relaxed significantly earlier, the transaction data has not been significantly reflected, and the forward-looking indicators such as the volume of views have been significantly improved. We believe that due to the impact of the epidemic and inflation, the recovery of fundamentals may be slow and tortuous, but the gradual recovery of performance growth in the next four quarters is a high probability. As a core variety in the investment chain, building materials need more attention, whether it is cyclical or growing.
