On Monday, the A-share market suffered the biggest decline in recent times, of which the Shanghai stock index fell sharply by 5.13%, the largest one-day decline in more than two years. More than 700 shares in the market closed down by the limit, and more than 2500 stocks fell by more than 8%. Such stocks generally fell sharply, which is relatively rare in recent years.
After the further sharp decline of the market, the cumulative decline of the Shanghai index during the year has been close to 20%, the cumulative decline of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index during the year has exceeded 30%, and the valuation level of the whole market has been significantly lower than the historical average.
Shanghai stock index recorded the largest decline in more than two years, with more than 700 shares falling by the limit
On April 25, the A-share market fell sharply, and several important market indexes fell sharply.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3000 point integer mark, down more than 150 points, or 5.13%.
According to the reporter’s statistics, in terms of decline, the closing decline of the Shanghai stock index of 5.13% has been the largest one-day decline in more than two years since February 3, 2020.
The market industry sector fell across the board. According to the classification of Shenwan industry, as of the closing, the non-ferrous metals and national defense and military industry both fell by more than 8%, leading the decline.
Electronics, basic chemicals, mechanical equipment, media, environmental protection, computers, power equipment and other sectors fell by more than 7%.
The decline of non bank finance, household appliances, architectural decoration and other sectors was relatively small.
In terms of individual stocks, more than 4600 stocks in the A-share market fell, and the number of rising stocks was less than 200.
Statistics show that today’s A-share market has a total of more than 700 stocks falling by the limit, more than 800 stocks falling by 10% or more, and more than 2500 stocks falling by more than 8%. Such a general sharp decline in individual stocks is relatively rare in recent years.
A number of industry leading stocks suffered a sharp decline, or even the limit.
For example, in Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) morning, one of the leading pharmaceutical companies, the limit began to fall, and it was further firmly sealed in the afternoon. Since 2022, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) has decreased by more than 40% Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) at present, the total market value has fallen below 200 billion yuan.
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) the financial data disclosed on Friday showed that in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 25.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.59%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.41%; In the first quarter of 2022, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) achieved a revenue of 5.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.93%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.35%.
New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) a shares fell by the limit. Before this year, the market value of the company was more than 100 billion yuan for a long time, and the current market value is more than 80 billion yuan.
Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) A-Shares also fell by the limit. At present, the total market value of the company exceeded 70 billion yuan, and in the past, the market value exceeded 100 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that while the market fell sharply, the north land stock connect net sold 4.396 billion yuan on the same day, including 4.846 billion yuan for the Shanghai Stock connect and 450 million yuan for the Shenzhen Stock connect.
for institutions that fell sharply on Monday
Since the beginning of 2022, the adjustment range of the main indexes in the A-share market has been large. Among them, the cumulative decline of the Shanghai index has reached 19.54%, and the cumulative decline of the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index has exceeded 30%. With the adjustment of the market, the market valuation level has gradually tended to be low.
Bohai Securities believes that there are two main reasons for the sharp decline of important market indexes on the 25th: first, the epidemic has spread locally again, raising the pessimistic expectation of the market on fundamentals. Since March, affected by the epidemic control in Shanghai, Jilin and other places, some industries and logistics transportation have been at a standstill, and the production and demand of enterprises have been impacted; At the same time, residents’ consumption is also suppressed by factors such as lack of scenes and poor expectations, and the economic data is obviously under pressure. Recently, there have been confirmed cases in Beijing and repeated outbreaks in Shanghai, causing the market to worry about fundamentals and gradually revise the expectations of fundamentals; Second, the devaluation of the RMB and the subsequent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve raised the market’s concerns about capital outflow. Although historically, northbound funds only flowed out of the A-share market in the process of the trend depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar from 2014 to 2016, the RMB has depreciated significantly against the US dollar recently, adding to the market’s expectation that “after the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 50bp with a high probability in May, it will continue to raise interest rates by 75bp in June and July respectively”, As a result, the short-term market is still worried about the pressure of foreign capital outflow caused by the continuous depreciation of RMB in the future.
Bohai Securities believes that from the perspective of outlook, short-term A shares will still face risks such as the epidemic, the final stage of performance release, and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike boots, and the negative factors remain to be cleared. However, judging from the current risk premium, the risk return of the Shanghai index exceeding the risk-free return has reached 6.0%, close to the historical extreme level since 2015. The extremely high risk return means that once the future economic expectation stabilizes, the potential return of the market is high. It is suggested that investors actively prepare the midline layout process, and look for sectors with medium and long-term allocation value in combination with the first quarterly report and future performance expectations.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the main reasons for the sharp decline in the market on the 25th include: ① the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is coming, the expectation of monetary tightening is continuously strengthened, and the sharp correction of US stocks restricts the external risk appetite of a shares. Powell publicly stated at the international monetary fund that a 50 basis point interest rate increase would be discussed at the interest rate meeting in May. On Friday, the three major indexes of US stocks made a sharp correction, with a decline of more than 2.5%. The continuous adjustment of US stocks inhibited the formation of a shares. ② The epidemic situation in Beijing began to be severe. Many places entered “static management” and regional control was upgraded. The number of new cases in Beijing has increased rapidly, and some regions have been upgraded to high-risk areas. In addition, some urban areas such as Anhui, Liaoning and Henan implement static management. Starting from Shanghai, epidemic concerns are also constantly curbing A-share sentiment. ③ The market is more worried about the future economic outlook. At a time when the economic data in the first quarter is weak and the current policy has not been made strong enough, the market is skeptical and worried about whether the annual economic growth target will continue to be adhered to. ④ Negative news of some representative stocks increased, and investors’ performance expectations were revised down. Including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) delaying the release of the first quarter performance announcement, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) both revenue and net profit fell in the first quarter, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) management facing adjustment, etc. This makes investors generally revise and worry about the performance expectations of some sectors, including new energy, medicine and other sectors, and track stocks are facing a significant adjustment. ⑤ The RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate rapidly, and concerns about capital outflow increased. Under the triple concerns of dislocation of internal and external monetary policies, comparison of economic situation and weakening of exports, the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate recently, depreciating by more than 1300 basis points in a week from April 18 to April 22. Today, the exchange rate continues to depreciate by nearly 700 basis points, and the fear of capital outflow is gradually heating up.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the weakness is grinding to the bottom or coming to an end, waiting for the signal of oversold rebound. Recently, the market has been continuously strengthened by the external Fed’s expectation of monetary tightening, the continuous surge of US bond yield, the internal uncertainty adjustment of the annual economic growth target, and the core constraints of pessimistic expectation of the future economic outlook. The trend of A-Shares continues to be depressed. Recently, it has fallen below the 3000 mark, and the market has seen an emotional sell-off. Paying attention to the tone of the upcoming important internal and external meetings is expected to alleviate the internal and external core concerns of the market and may become an opportunity to drive the market to usher in an oversold rebound.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) recently, the strategic point of view is that at present, the credit pulse recovers weakly, the profit is still at the bottom stage, the deviation between profit growth and credit environment, and the reality of “increasing income without increasing profit” of industrial enterprises under the supply bottleneck are also the problems faced by the fundamentals of the stock market.
The recent market strategy view of Aijian Securities believes that, on the whole, the epidemic is still under control, the expected tightening process of the United States is accelerated, and the short-term decline of the RMB exchange rate has put great pressure on the market. The market mentality is cautious and returns to the low point again. However, the agency still believes that the region should not be too pessimistic. The management’s care intention is obvious, and there is no doubt about the bottom of the policy. However, there is great pressure on the short-term release of sentiment, and the economic growth has not deteriorated beyond expectations. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the bottom of the economy. But the repair of the market still takes time. The current valuation level of the market is low, the safety margin is good, and the game characteristics of stock funds remain unchanged. It is still to grasp structural trading opportunities. The main opportunity lies in the valuation repair after excessive pessimistic expectations in the early stage.
According to the research view recently released by capital securities, the important factors affecting the market in the near future are still China’s epidemic and steady growth, foreign geopolitics and the rise of US debt. However, there have been some changes in the marginal importance of the four factors. Specifically, the epidemic situation is high and difficult to fall, the sealing and control management is strengthened, and the potential impact on the economy is greater than previously expected; Steady growth formed an important support for the smooth operation of the economy in the first quarter, but the strength of policies has slowed down recently; The rise of US debt continues to exert influence on the market to reach a new equilibrium; Geopolitical risks have not been significantly mitigated, but the marginal impact on the market has changed little.
In terms of future outlook, the research view of Capital Securities believes that the recent economic expectation has weakened, the strength of steady growth policy is insufficient, the superposition of external uncertainty has increased, the market confidence has been significantly hit, the three killing of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange, and the style indexes of the stock market continue to weaken significantly. In the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China’s epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow up and wait-and-see and respond flexibly. The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. Treasury bond yields may remain low in the current range as a whole, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations.
