Since this year, the market has continued to fluctuate and adjust, while the banking sector has risen against the trend for many consecutive days!
On January 11, the three major A-share indexes opened slightly lower in the morning. After the Shanghai index once recovered the 3600 point mark in the morning, the market indexes fell one after another. In the face of the weak overall market performance, bank stocks rose again against the trend, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and other stocks rose continuously under the beautiful performance forecast.
The data show that among the industries to which Shenwan belongs, only 6 rose on January 11, and the banking industry rose 1.14%, ranking first in the list of increases on January 11; In terms of funds, the main funds of the two cities had a net outflow of 34.180 billion yuan throughout the day, only three industries had a net inflow of main funds, and the banking industry also had a net inflow of 2.225 billion yuan.
do bank stocks that have been in the valuation “depression” for a long time usher in investment opportunities again? Many institutions have released research reports that the banking sector is expected to remain strong in the future.
bank stocks rose against the trend for several consecutive days
After experiencing ups and downs in 2021, bank stocks that disappointed many investors finally improved after the beginning of the year, realizing a multi-day rise against the trend.
On January 11, the three major A-share indexes closed green one after another, and the banking sector led the whole market with an increase of 1.14%. In the six trading days since the beginning of the year, the bank index closed positive for four days, with a cumulative increase of 4.45% this year. Among the 31 industries to which Shenwan belongs, the increase is second only to real estate.
In terms of individual stocks, many bank stocks rose sharply for several consecutive days. On the 11th, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose 5.09% and ranked first among 41 bank stocks in a shares, boosted by positive news such as performance forecast. On the same day, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) rose 3.73%, 3.21% and 3.13% respectively. On the whole, 31 bank stocks were red, 6 were green and 4 were flat, of which 14 stocks rose more than 1%.
However, specifically, the performance of bank stocks is also clearly differentiated. Since the beginning of the year, the top five stocks in A-share banks are Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (15.25%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (12.39%), Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (10.46%), Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (10.39%) and Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) (9.03%). On January 11, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) as one of the leading bank stocks held by many public funds, opened low in the morning. It once fell by more than 2.6% and narrowed to 1.34% by the end of the day, which was also the second consecutive negative day for the stock. Among A-share banks, year to date Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) has increased by only 0.37%, ranking at the bottom.
In terms of capital flow, the banking industry has a net inflow of 2.225 billion yuan, ranking first in all industries. In terms of individual stocks, the first net inflow was China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) . On the 11th, the net inflow was 527 million yuan, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , and the net inflow was 282 million yuan and 280 million yuan respectively. In fact, in the first week of this year, northbound funds were also vigorously increasing their positions in the banking sector, with a net inflow of 3.96 billion yuan, ranking first in 31 industries.
Similar to the A-share banking sector, the Hong Kong stock banking sector has also increased this year. As of the closing on January 11, among the mainland banks listed in Hong Kong, the top gainers were Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (13.53%), China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) (8.52%), China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) (6.88%), Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) (6.72%) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) (6.58%), most of which were large state-owned banks.
the net profit of many banks increased by more than 20%, and some executives increased their holdings of
in recent days, the performance express of the first batch of A-share listed banks has been freshly released. The net profit growth of many banks has exceeded 20%, and the net profit growth of small and medium-sized banks has exceeded 30%. Under the beautiful performance, it directly catalyzes the rise of their respective stocks.
On January 4, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) took the lead in issuing the performance pre increase announcement. It is preliminarily expected that the annual net profit attributable to shareholders will increase by 18% to 25% year-on-year. This makes the bank expected to achieve the highest performance growth rate in recent years.
On January 10, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) disclosed that the 2021 annual performance express showed that last year, the bank realized a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of 82.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, a nine-year high. On the same day, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) also released a performance express, saying that last year, the bank realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, the highest increase in a decade.
On January 11, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) released a performance express, which showed that the net profit attributable to the parent bank of the bank reached 19.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.72%, leading the growth of net profit of listed banks. It is worth mentioning that the net profit growth rate has exceeded the previous growth performance of 30% in the third quarterly report of 2021, setting the highest growth record of the bank in recent ten years.
On November 11, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) released an express report that realized a net profit of RMB 2.184 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 21.13%. At the end of 2021, the non-performing loan ratio was only 0.81%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points over the beginning of the year, and the provision coverage increased by 46.65 percentage points to 531.98% over the beginning of the year.
On the same day, as a large joint-stock bank, China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) net profit was expected to increase by 13.60% year-on-year, realizing a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55.641 billion yuan. By the end of 2021, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.39%, down 0.25 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 182.14%, an increase of 10.46 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
in addition to the excellent performance, the Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that the management of many banks recently increased their holdings of their own bank stocks.
On January 4, China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) announced that President Zhang Rongsen increased his holdings of 284100 A shares of the company at a price of 3.52 yuan / share, with an increase of 1 million yuan.
On the last day of 2021, Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) announced the completion of the measures to stabilize the stock price. It is understood that there are 12 directors and senior executives of the bank who need to perform the obligation of stabilizing the stock price, with a total increase of 85400 shares of the bank, with a cumulative increase of 775600 yuan; Chongqing Yufu, the largest shareholder, increased its holdings of 2.937655 million shares of the bank, with a cumulative increase of 25.8666 million yuan.
On the same day, Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601860) also disclosed the announcement on the plan to stabilize the stock price. The bank plans to perform the obligation of stabilizing the stock price by increasing the shares held by the directors (excluding independent directors) and senior executives who receive remuneration in the company, and the increase amount shall not be less than 25% of the after tax income received from the company in the previous year, that is, the total increase amount shall not be less than 1736100 yuan.
institutions predict that there may be “spring market” in the banking sector
In the past year, the banking sector briefly broke out a round of market at the beginning of the year, and then the whole market style continued to switch, and the bank stocks embarked on the road of shock and decline. After the risk exposure of real estate enterprises, it once plummeted to nearly 90%, and the net rate of bank stock market was less than twice. As of January 11, among the 41 bank stocks of a shares, 34 bank stocks were in the “net breaking” state, accounting for more than 80%.
On the one hand, the valuation continues to remain low, and on the other hand, the bank’s performance has repeatedly reached new highs. At the same time, the central bank’s macro policies remained stable, and successively reduced reserve requirements and interest rates, bringing benefits to the improvement of banking operations. In this regard, many securities analysts issued research reports and firmly optimistic about the future trend of banks.
Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) released a report that the banking sector is expected to remain strong in the next period: first, the real estate risk is gradually mitigated, and the market pessimistic expectation is in the process of repair; Second, the key to steady growth lies in “steady investment”, which requires “wide credit”, and the market has expectations for “wide credit”; Third, the preference of funds for undervalued sectors increased, and bank stocks usually performed well in the beginning of the year.
Wang Yifeng also resumed the performance of the banking sector in recent ten years, saying that the banking sector had a good trend in the first quarter of most years; Especially in January, excluding 2020 affected by the epidemic, the winning rate of relative income recorded by the banking sector was as high as 90%. Specifically, the investment logic has three main lines: the rebound theme brought by the weakening of real estate risk suppression, the main line of sound operation of high-quality regional local banks, and the “head wild goose” bank with stable credit supply at the beginning of the year.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry, pointed out in the research report that the financial data of January and the strength of policies before the Spring Festival have become the key to the short term. “In the past, at the beginning of the policy shift, the market often worried about the effect of the policy adjustment. Because the rise of the bank stock market is usually not very high and rises rapidly, it is difficult to layout on the right. The stock price reflects the expected change. When the economic effect is reflected, the bank stock may have risen significantly.” Liao Zhiming believes that January is a better time window on the left, and continues to take a clear-cut stand in recommending the banking sector.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that is optimistic about the performance of bank stocks in 2022. Since 2018, the compression of industry valuation is expected to be repaired. After high-quality banks experience “poverty makes them think of change”, the potential of wealth management and science and technology empowerment is released, ushering in “the good times come”. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that there is limited space and range for continued valuation adjustment, and the overly pessimistic market expectations reflected by valuation and positions are expected to be corrected.
According to the Research Report of Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , it is expected that the industry fundamentals will remain stable in 2022. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low, maintaining the “over allocation” rating of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, focus on small and medium-sized banks that have advantages in serving manufacturing enterprises.
